Betting markets think bitcoin has already peaked this year
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- Betting markets think bitcoin has already just about peaked in 2025.
- Bettors expect the coin to hit $110,000 this year, just slightly above its January all-time high.
- But bulls are still calling for the apex cryptocurrency to soar to eye-watering heights this year.
Crypto bulls aren't shaken by the jarring volatility this year, but betting markets think there are strong odds the token has just about peaked in 2025.
While betting markets predict that bitcoin is likely to edge above its record high of around $109,000 reached in January, bettors don't see much upside from there — and even if the token is to breach new highs, speculators are also gearing up for a deeper decline.
A Polymarket bet with trading volume of over $5 million indicates 61% odds that the apex token will hit $110,000 in 2025, barely above its all-time high.
Beyond that, confidence tapers off. The chances that bitcoin will reach $150,000 or $200,000 this year are 29% and 14% on the platform, respectively.
The majority of Polymarket speculators see bitcoin dipping to around $70,000. Those betting on the Kalshi exchange are even gloomier, predicting the token could bottom around $64,000, the lowest level since last October.
The pessimism isn't limited to bitcoin, either. Polymarket bettors see ethereum, the second-largest crypto, hitting $1,500 this year, about 24% lower than its price on Friday.
Since bitcoin surged to an all-time high of $109,026 in January, enthusiasm has fallen off dramatically amid a whirlwind of economic concerns that have hurt risk assets.
Recession talk and stubborn inflation have helped trigger a correction in digital assets. Bitcoin plunged below $80,000 last week, while the CoinMarketCap Crypto Fear and Greed Index dropped into "extreme fear" territory.
Other factors, such as a major crypto hack and chaos in memecoins, have helped dampen sentiment.
The bulls don't budge
The bulls are undaunted.
"Crypto skeptics can cringe all along, but it remains hard to ignore the timeline. We are in a new era. It still screams bullish to us," Bernstein analysts wrote in a note published March 3. "We still think Bitcoin is headed to $200K."
This type of thinking isn't unique to the investment firm, which cited that industry sentiment — unlike the market's — has never been better.
Under President Donald Trump, stringent regulation of crypto is easing, while friendly policies are beginning to emerge — even if they're taking more time than originally expected.
It's for similar reasons that others have reiterated their high-end forecasts in recent weeks. Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick is even more convinced that bitcoin will reach $200,000 by the end of the year, as macro issues prompt rate cuts, which would be bullish for bitcoin.
21Shares strategists see a similar outcome and expect lower interest rates to increase crypto liquidity and boost bitcoin to $150,000.
Given the importance of Fed policy, concerned crypto investors should watch upcoming inflation data to determine when momentum will return, Amberdata's head of research Mike Marshall told Business Insider.
Still others expect much higher figures, with Strategy founder and bitcoin evangelist Michael Saylor calling a $444,000 year-end price for bitcoin.
"To shake long-term conviction, you'd need more than short-term price action; you'd need real structural setbacks, like stalled ETF flows, regulatory whiplash, or a breakdown in on-chain fundamentals. So far, none of that has happened," Mike Cahill, CEO of Douro Labs, told BI.