How Trump's trade war could affect the cost of your breakfast

Avocados saw a dramatic rise in popularity in the 2010s, with per capita consumption rising under 3 pounds in 2000 to 8 pounds in 2011, per USDA data.

Today, 90% of the US' avocados come from Mexico, where the climate and soil are optimal for year-round growth.

"The success of the avocado industry is rooted in our trade relationship with Mexico," David Ortega, a Michigan State University professor of food economics and policy, told the Wall Street Journal.

With US farmers unable to grow enough avocados to keep up with consumer demand, the price of your avocado toast at brunch could rise this year amid Trump's tariff war with Mexico.

A New York staple, lox bagels might see an increase in prices, too.

Historically, Canada has been one of the largest sources of salmon in the US, with 96% of Canada's salmon exports going to the US in 2023, according to data from the Canadian government.

In 2024, the US imported more than $3.6 billion in seafood products, like salmon, from Canada. Trends show a continuous rise in seafood imports to the American market, according to USDA data.

Maple syrup is another breakfast item that might cost more, leading customers to opt for cheaper alternatives.

The US produces approximately 4 million gallons of maple syrup a year, mostly throughout the Northeast and Midwest. Yet it does not produce enough to keep up with the market's demands, Adam Wild, director of Cornell University's Uihlein Maple Research Forest and co-director of the Cornell Maple Program, told WBNG News in Ithaca, New York.

Canada produces about 75% of the world's supply of the product, as well as a large share of the equipment required for its production, he said.

The tariffs could affect the import of this equipment into the US, potentially raising costs for domestic producers as well.

With Mexico, the largest producer of blackberries in the world, being the US' top supplier of berries, according to the USDA, the 25% tariff could also impact the fresh-fruit aisle.

Coffee prices are already seeing the effects of market uncertainty caused by tariff threats.

Earlier this month, the price of coffee hit a record $4.13 per pound.

Trump's threats of imposing a 25% tariff against Colombia, which accounts for 30% of America's coffee imports, rattled the market and significantly pushed up prices, as reported by Coffee Intelligence.

Will Ford, the chief operating officer at Westrock Coffee, a private-label coffee manufacturer that produces for McDonald's and Walmart, told The New York Times in February that companies were starting to look for suppliers that would stay safe from the tariffs.

"We have a few million pounds of coffee that we get from Mexico," he told the Times. "We've been looking at trying to source from a different Central American origin. Maybe we'll replace Mexico with Honduras or with Guatemala."

While the US is a major producer of bell peppers, imports from Canada and Mexico comprise a significant portion of the US total consumption of the vegetable, according to research by the University of Florida's Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences.

Historically, Mexico has accounted for over 70% of bell-pepper imports to the US, with Canada being the second-largest supplier at around 20%.

The costs of fried breakfast staples like chicken and waffles might be affected as a vast majority of the US imports of canola oil come from Canada.

In 2022, 96% of canola oil imports came from Canada, according to USDA data.

Like avocados, tomatoes might be one of the most significantly affected products by the 25% tariff.

America's production of fresh tomatoes accounts for less than half of the total domestic demand for them, with 60% of that demand being met by imports coming primarily from Mexico and Canada, according to research by the University of Florida's Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences.

While the US is one of the largest global producers of potatoes, rising demand means the country is a net importer of products like frozen french fries, which we get primarily from Canada, according to USDA data.

Canada accounts for 86% of America's frozen french fries imports, which could be impacted by the proposed tariff.

The All-American staple steak and eggs could also see an increase in price as the US beef supply might be impacted by the tariff war, although to a lesser degree.

The US is the highest beef producer globally, but it is also the second-largest importer, with imported beef accounting for 10% of the country's beef supply in 2021, according to USDA data. Canada and Mexico were the two leading providers,