AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Pennsylvania’s state legislative special elections
WASHINGTON (AP) — Tuesday’s special elections will fill two vacancies in Pennsylvania’s General Assembly. Democrats are defending a state House seat on friendly turf with control of the deadlocked chamber on the line, while Republicans look to maintain their comfortable advantage in the state Senate in a reliably GOP district.
In the state House, voters in District 35 in western Pennsylvania southeast of Pittsburgh will elect a replacement for Democratic state Rep. Matt Gergely, whose death in January left the parties tied at 101 seats each. The major-party nominees to succeed him are Democrat Dan Goughnour, who’s a McKeesport school board member and a police officer, and Republican Chuck Davis, who’s president of the White Oak Borough Council and a volunteer firefighter. Libertarian Adam Kitta is also on the ballot.
On the other side of the commonwealth in the state Senate race, three candidates are running to replace former Republican state Sen. Ryan Aument, who left his seat in December to work as state director in Republican U.S. Sen. Dave McCormick’s office. The nominees are Republican Josh Parsons, a Lancaster County commissioner; Democrat James Andrew Malone, the mayor of East Petersburg; and libertarian Zachary Moore.
Democratic candidates have a strong track record in the Allegheny County-based state House district. Gergely first won the seat in a 2023 special election with 75% of the vote and ran unopposed in 2024. Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris carried the district with about 58% of the vote in the 2024 presidential election, compared with about 42% for former President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee.
Trump, who won the election and a second term in the White House, performed well in some parts of the district, receiving comfortable majorities in Liberty, Lincoln, Port Vue, South Versailles and White Oak, but those municipalities collectively made up less than a third of the district’s total vote. The most competitive battlegrounds in the district were Versailles and West Homestead, both of which Harris carried narrowly. She won most of the district by huge margins.
State Senate District 36, located within Lancaster County between Harrisburg and Philadelphia, had roughly the opposite voting record as House District 35 in the 2024 general election. Trump received 57% of the district vote in the presidential race, while McCormick received 56% in his successful bid to unseat Democratic U.S. Sen. Bob Casey. Aument ran unopposed in his last election in 2022.
Trump won 18 of the state Senate district’s 22 municipalities by comfortable to large margins. Harris narrowly carried East Hempfield, East Petersburg, Lititz and Manheim, but those four areas comprised only about 37% of the total district vote.
Democrats won a slim majority of state House seats in 2022 for the first time in more than a decade and have had to defend their narrow advantage in a series of special elections since then.
The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.
Pennsylvania requires an automatic recount for close statewide races, but that law does not apply to state legislative races. For non-statewide races, voters may petition a county board of elections or the courts to order a recount. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.
Here’s a look at what to expect on Tuesday:
Special election day
Pennsylvania’s special elections for state Senate and House will be held Tuesday. Polls close at 8 p.m. ET.
What’s on the ballot?
The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in the special elections for state Senate District 36 and state House District 35.
Who gets to vote?
Any voters registered in state Senate District 36 or state House District 35 may participate in the special election in their district.
What do turnout and advance vote look like?
As of Monday, Senate District 36 had about 185,000 registered voters, of whom 53% were Republicans, about 30% were Democrats and the rest had no party affiliation or were members of minor parties. House District 35 had roughly 43,000 registered voters, with Democrats comprising about 61% and Republicans about 25%.
Turnout in House District 35 was between 52% and 53% of registered voters in both the 2022 and 2024 general elections. Roughly a quarter of the votes in those elections were cast before Election Day. A special election in the district in 2023 had about 21% of registered voters participating.
Turnout in the 2022 general election in Senate District 36 was about 51% of registered voters. About 14% of the voters in that election cast their ballots before Election Day.
As of Thursday, more than 2,700 of the approximately 4,000 absentee ballots requested by voters had been cast in Allegheny County before special election day. About 83% was from Democrats. As of Wednesday in Lancaster County, voters had requested nearly 16,000 absentee ballots, of which about 11,000 had already been cast. The county did not provide a breakdown by party.
How long does vote-counting usually take?
In the 2024 general election, the AP first reported results just as polls closed at 8 p.m. ET in Allegheny County (home of House District 35) and at 8:13 p.m. ET in Lancaster County (home of Senate District 36). The election night tabulation ended in Lancaster County at 11:59 p.m. ET and in Allegheny at 12:08 a.m. ET, both with about 98% of total votes counted.
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Associated Press writers Mark Scolforo in Harrisburg and Leah Askarinam in Washington contributed to this report.