CTA, Metra, Pace face 'draconian' service cuts in new worst-case scenario laid out by agencies

The CTA could eliminate half its bus lines, Metra could end service on its Electric Blue Island branch and Pace could cut all weekend bus service under a worst-case scenario the agencies say could happen if state lawmakers do not allocate more money to transit this spring.

The three agencies, and the Regional Transportation Authority which oversees them, on Friday took another step in a campaign to pressure state lawmakers to appropriate more state money. They painted a dire picture of what 40% service cuts could look like if the state does not intervene before they run off a "fiscal cliff" next year.

"CTA's impact is going to be huge," RTA Executive Director Leanne Redden said. "There's cuts on Metra and Pace side as well. Even beyond the transit riders, it affects employees. Workers won't be able to get to their jobs. Traffic congestion is going to be even worse."

The agencies are staring down a $700 million-plus budget deficit in 2026 when federal COVID-19 pandemic grant money runs out. Chicago public transit has been losing money since 2020 when ridership plummeted. Ridership has not recovered.

The CTA would be the first agency to run out of federal grants and reduce service in 2026, according to a report released by the RTA on Friday. Four of eight CTA rail lines would see suspended service on all or portions of the lines. More than 50 stations would close or drastically reduce service. Rail service would decline by 10% to 25% on the rest of the rail network.

Bus service would be hit just as hard. As many as 74 of CTA's 127 bus lines would be eliminated, leaving a half-million riders without a nearby bus stop, according to the agency.

"The list of probable cuts is even worse than most of us expected," said Joe Schwieterman, director of Loyola University's Chaddick Institute for Metropolitan Development. "This is far more than scaling back. It's a dismantlement of much of the system."

Schwieterman said he was surprised the CTA is considering closing segments of its lines, a detail that has not been previously announced.

"It's hard to imagine the public accepting such massive cuts without putting enormous pressure on their elected officials," he said. "Even people who don't use public transit will be shocked by the scale. ... These are really draconian scenarios."

Moody's Ratings this week downgraded CTA's credit outlook from stable to negative. The report cited the uncertainty of future funding. CTA projects an operating gap of $550 million, which is 25% of its operating spending. Gov. JB Pritkzer's budget for next year includes no new funding for transit.

Severe cuts to transit will have ripple effects on the broader economy, according to the RTA. Nearly 3,000 transit workers could be laid off, and the Chicago area could lose $2.6 billion in gross domestic product due to increased congestion and job loss.

Transit leaders want state lawmakers to keep that nightmare scenario in mind as they consider legislation to increase funding, which they say has been chronically below average compared with other states. Lawmakers have said they must first pass a bill reforming the agencies and improve how they cooperate.

One bill in Springfield, Senate Bill 5, calls for combining all of the agencies into a mega agency named the Metropolitan Mobility Authority. Another bill pushed by labor groups, Senate Bill 1938, calls for strengthening the RTA to allow it to guide cooperation between the other agencies.

The source of new funding has not been hashed out yet. Advocates have pointed to a possible new road usage charge and a bump to the region’s sales tax.

Metra would drastically cut service on nearly all of its 14 lines, according to RTA's report. The agency said it would need to cut all service to the Electric Blue Island Branch to balance its budget.

Metra said it would cut early-morning and late-evening trains. Weekday trains would run once an hour, while weekend trains would run once every two hours. Popular lines, such as the BNSF which runs 91 trains each weekday, could have service cut to less than half. Even if funding was secured later, cuts could take five years or more to undo, Metra said.

Pace riders could be hit the worst under the theoretical cuts. All weekend bus service would be cut. Service after 8 p.m. would be eliminated from 62 routes. More frequent routes would have service reduced to once every half-hour or hour. ADA paratransit, a federally mandated program, would be reduced but not eliminated, according to Pace.

If additional funding is not allocated this spring, the transit agencies would immediately begin holding public engagement sessions to make the cuts equitable, as required by Title VI of the Civil Rights Act. Cuts could begin on the CTA as early as March 2026, said Maulik Vaishnav, the RTA's senior deputy executive director.