Early Emmy odds in 16 categories: ‘Hacks,’ ‘Severance,’ ‘The Penguin’ out front
The 2025 Emmy nominations won't be announced until July 15, but Gold Derby already has a head start on handicapping the races.
First things first, we are predicting last year's Best Comedy Series champion, Hacks, to win again for its upcoming season, which premieres April 10 on Max. After all, the Emmys love repeats. The Season 4 plot follows legendary stand-up comedian Deborah Vance (Jean Smart) as she gears up for her nightly talk show with the help of her on-again/off-again comedy writer Ava Daniels (Hannah Einbinder). Both Smart and Einbinder are also leading their respective Emmy contests for Best Comedy Actress and Best Comedy Supporting Actress.
Severance is back for Season 2 after a three-year delay, and it's expected to receive a goat-load of Emmy love. Adam Scott, Britt Lower, John Turturro, and Zach Cherry play office workers at the sinister Lumon Industries, who all agree to separate their workplace memories from their external memories. Apple TV+'s buzzy sci-fi show is the favorite to win Best Drama Series (after losing last time to Succession, which is no longer eligible), Best Drama Actor (Scott), and Best Drama Supporting Actor (Turturro).
As for the Best Limited Series race, with Baby Reindeer no longer in contention, watch for HBO's The Penguin to waddle off with some major wins. Lead actor Colin Farrell (as Oswald "Oz" Cobb/the Penguin), lead actress Cristin Milioti (as Sofia Gigante), and supporting actress Deirdre O'Connell (as Oz's mother, Francis Cobb) are all out front in their respective categories for playing the comic-book characters come to life.
Gold Derby's Emmy odds are based on the combined forecasts of more than 1,700 people (and counting), including experts we’ve polled from major media outlets, editors who cover awards year-round for this website, and the mass of users who make up our biggest predictions bloc.
Below, see a snapshot in time of our current predictions in 16 categories, updated on March 19. Track the 2025 Emmys by exploring all of our charts and graphs, and be sure to sound off in our forums.
BEST COMEDY SERIES
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Hacks — 39/10
2. The Bear — 6/1
3. Only Murders in the Building — 7/1
4. Abbott Elementary — 15/2
5. Shrinking — 9/1
6. The Studio — 10/1
7. Nobody Wants This — 10/1
8. What We Do in the Shadows — 18/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
A Man on the Inside, The Four Seasons, Agatha All Along, Somebody Somewhere, The Residence, Mo, Poker Face, Étoile
BEST COMEDY ACTRESS
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Jean Smart (Hacks) — 3/1
2. Ayo Edebiri (The Bear) — 9/2
3. Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary) — 11/2
4. Kristen Bell (Nobody Wants This) — 6/1
5. Selena Gomez (Only Murders in the Building) — 11/1
6. Kathryn Hahn (Agatha All Along) — 15/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Natasha Lyonne (Poker Face), Tina Fey (The Four Seasons), Uzo Aduba (The Residence), Bridget Everett (Somebody Somewhere), Wendi McLendon-Covey (St. Denis Medical), Charlotte Gainsbourg (Étoile)
BEST COMEDY ACTOR
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Jeremy Allen White (The Bear) — 19/5
2. Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building) — 19/5
3. Adam Brody (Nobody Wants This) — 11/2
4. Steve Martin (Only Murders in the Building) — 15/2
5. Ted Danson (A Man on the Inside) — 8/1
6. Jason Segel (Shrinking) — 21/2
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Seth Rogen (The Studio), Matt Berry (What We Do in the Shadows), Steve Carell (The Four Seasons), David Alan Grier (St. Denis Medical), Mohammed Amer (Mo), Luke Kirby (Étoile)
BEST COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTRESS
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Hannah Einbinder (Hacks) — 31/10
2. Liza Colon-Zayas (The Bear) — 4/1
3. Jessica Williams (Shrinking) — 6/1
4. Sheryl Lee Ralph (Abbott Elementary) — 13/2
5. Catherine O'Hara (The Studio) — 9/1
6. Janelle James (Abbott Elementary) — 14/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Meryl Streep (Only Murders in the Building), Patti LuPone (Agatha All Along), Meg Stalter (Hacks), Abby Elliott (The Bear), Jane Lynch (Only Murders in the Building), Susan Kelechi Watson (The Residence)
BEST COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTOR
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Ebon Moss-Bachrach (The Bear) — 18/5
2. Harrison Ford (Shrinking) — 39/10
3. Paul W. Downs (Hacks) — 9/2
4. Michael Urie (Shrinking) — 13/2
5. Tyler James Williams (Abbott Elementary) — 19/2
6. Bowen Yang (Saturday Night Live) — 18/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Brett Goldstein (Shrinking), Ike Barinholtz (The Studio), Colman Domingo (The Four Seasons), Zach Galifianakis (Only Murders in the Building), Timothy Simons (Nobody Wants This), Chris Perfetti (Abbott Elementary)
BEST DRAMA SERIES
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Severance — 9/2
2. The Last of Us — 5/1
3. The White Lotus — 13/2
4. Slow Horses — 15/2
5. The Diplomat — 17/2
6. The Pitt — 23/2
7. Squid Game — 16/1
8. Andor — 20/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
The Day of the Jackal, Paradise, The Handmaid's Tale, House of the Dragon, Bad Sisters, Yellowjackets, Your Friends and Neighbors, Industry
BEST DRAMA ACTRESS
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Kathy Bates (Matlock) — 37/10
2. Keri Russell (The Diplomat) — 4/1
3. Bella Ramsey (The Last of Us) — 4/1
4. Britt Lower (Severance) — 11/2
5. Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid's Tale) — 17/2
6. Melanie Lynskey (Yellowjackets) — 22/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Keira Knightley (Black Doves), Nicola Coughlan (Bridgerton), Sharon Horgan (Bad Sisters), Lashana Lynch (The Day of the Jackal), Zoe Saldaña (Lioness), Helen Mirren (1923)
BEST DRAMA ACTOR
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Adam Scott (Severance) — 7/2
2. Gary Oldman (Slow Horses) — 19/5
3. Pedro Pascal (The Last of Us) — 9/2
4. Sterling K. Brown (Paradise) — 11/2
5. Noah Wyle (The Pitt) — 10/1
6. Eddie Redmayne (The Day of the Jackal) — 11/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Jon Hamm (Your Friends and Neighbors), Lee Jung-jae (Squid Game), Diego Luna (Andor), Jeff Bridges (The Old Man), Rufus Sewell (The Diplomat), Mark Rylance (Wolf Hall: The Mirror and the Light)
BEST DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTRESS
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Allison Janney (The Diplomat) — 9/2
2. Carrie Coon (The White Lotus) — 5/1
3. Kaitlyn Dever (The Last of Us) — 6/1
4. Natasha Rothwell (The White Lotus) — 15/2
5. Parker Posey (The White Lotus) — 19/2
6. Patricia Arquette (Severance) — 19/2
7. Aimee Lou Wood (The White Lotus) — 20/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Kristin Scott Thomas (Slow Horses), Julianne Nicholson (Paradise), Leslie Bibb (The White Lotus), Ann Dowd (The Handmaid's Tale), Michelle Monaghan (The White Lotus), Fiona Shaw (Bad Sisters)
BEST DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTOR
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. John Turturro (Severance) — 37/10
2. Jack Lowden (Slow Horses) — 5/1
3. Walton Goggins (The White Lotus) — 11/2
4. Tramell Tillman (Severance) — 7/1
5. Jason Isaacs (The White Lotus) — 10/1
6. Jeffrey Wright (The Last of Us) — 10/1
7. Jonathan Pryce (Slow Horses) — 14/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Patrick Schwarzenegger (The White Lotus), Zach Cherry (Severance), James Marsden (Paradise), Lee Byung-hun (Squid Game), Ken Leung (Industry), John Lithgow (The Old Man)
BEST LIMITED SERIES
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. The Penguin — 7/4
2. Disclaimer — 5/1
3. Say Nothing — 15/2
4. Adolescence — 8/1
5. Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story — 9/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Dying for Sex, Zero Day, Good American Family, La Maquina, Black Mirror, Fight Night: The Million Dollar Heist
BEST TV MOVIE
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Rebel Ridge — 11/5
2. Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy — 11/4
3. Out of My Mind — 11/2
4. The Parenting — 23/2
5. Am I OK? — 16/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
The Supremes at Earl's All-You-Can-Eat, Swiped, Star Trek: Section 31, It’s What’s Inside, The Killer, Salem's Lot
BEST MOVIE/LIMITED ACTRESS
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Cristin Milioti (The Penguin) — 17/10
2. Michelle Williams (Dying for Sex) — 19/5
3. Cate Blanchett (Disclaimer) — 9/2
4. Renée Zellweger (Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy) — 13/1
5. Ellen Pompeo (Good American Family) — 15/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Kaitlyn Dever (Apple Cider Vinegar), Lola Petticrew (Say Nothing), Julianne Moore (Sirens), Lizzy Caplan (Zero Day), Uzo Aduba (The Supremes at Earl's All-You-Can-Eat), Nicole Kidman (The Perfect Couple)
Deleted:
BEST MOVIE/LIMITED ACTOR
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Colin Farrell (The Penguin) — 3/2
2. Kevin Kline (Disclaimer) — 5/1
3. Cooper Koch (Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story) — 6/1
4. Robert De Niro (Zero Day) — 12/1
5. Brian Tyree Henry (Dope Thief) — 13/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Owen Cooper (Adolescence), Nicholas Alexander Chavez (Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story), Aaron Pierre (Rebel Ridge), Anthony Boyle (Say Nothing), Jake Gyllenhaal (Presumed Innocent), Gael Garcia Bernal (La Maquina)
Deleted:
BEST MOVIE/LIMITED SUPPORTING ACTRESS
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Deirdre O'Connell (The Penguin) — 4/1
2. Lesley Manville (Disclaimer) — 5/1
3. Sissy Spacek (Dying for Sex) — 11/2
4. Chloe Sevigny (Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story) — 17/2
5. Angela Bassett (Zero Day) — 21/2
6. Jenny Slate (Dying for Sex) — 13/1
7. Erin Doherty (Adolescence) — 18/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Edie Falco (The Parenting), Christina Hendricks (Good American Family), Leila George (Disclaimer), Taraji P. Henson (Fight Night: The Million Dollar Heist), Joan Allen (Zero Day), Imogen Faith Reid (Good American Family)
Deleted:
BEST MOVIE/LIMITED SUPPORTING ACTOR
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Javier Bardem (Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story) — 4/1
2. Liev Schreiber (The Perfect Couple) — 11/2
3. Jesse Plemons (Zero Day) — 19/2
4. Jay Duplass (Dying for Sex) — 11/1
5. Kodi Smit-McPhee (Disclaimer) — 23/2
6. Brian Cox (The Parenting) — 13/1
7. Stephen Graham (Adolescence) — 14/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Diego Luna (La Maquina), Rhenzy Feliz (The Penguin), Sacha Baron Cohen (Disclaimer), Hugh Grant (Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy), Rob Delaney (Dying for Sex), Ashley Walters (Adolescence)
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