Why Adam Sandler could finally break through at the Oscars this year (and it has nothing to do with ‘Happy Gilmore 2’)

Is the Academy ready to embrace Adam Sandler?

On Tuesday, Netflix released the first trailer for Happy Gilmore 2, the long-awaited sequel starring Sandler as the unconventional and irascible pro golfer. The short teaser quicly trended online, sparking a fresh round of love and appreciation for its star following Sandler’s well-received appearances at the Golden Globes, the Saturday Night Live 50th anniversary special, and the Oscars this year. However, all the goodwill feels like prologue to Sandler’s next big project: a juicy role in Noah Baumbach’s new film, Jay Kelly, opposite George Clooney and coming this fall also via Netflix. On paper, the Baumbach project is the type of movie that will find itself in the middle of the awards conversation, meaning the beloved Sandler could finally receive recognition from the Academy after snubs for Uncut Gems and Hustle. Ahead is the extremely early case for Sandler becoming an Oscar nominee next year for Jay Kelly, sight unseen.

Everybody loves Sandman

The Oscars are more than just a popularity contest and if an actor doesn’t have a performance deserving of some recognition they likely won’t get nominated… however, it also pays to be popular. And few celebrities have as good of a reputation within the industry as Sandler does. 

“He’s a great person, he’s been so good to so many people,” Judd Apatow told Entertainment Weekly in 2023 about Sandler. “He’s given so many breaks, and been a consistent friend, who has been there for so many people for so long.”

While accepting her best actress award at the Screen Actors Guild Awards in 2020, The Morning Show star Jennifer Aniston made a point to single out Sandler, who was snubbed by the guild for Uncut Gems. “Oh, Adam Sandler, your performance is extraordinary and your magic is real, buddy,” she said. “I love you.”

Chris Rock, Drew Barrymore, Brad Pitt, Oscars host Conan O’Brien — they’ve all expressed profound respect and admiration toward Sandler over the years.

“Nobody makes me laugh like you and nobody has taken better care of me in this business than you,” Steve Buscemi said in 2023 as Sandler was honored with the Mark Twain Prize for American Humor. “He does this for all his friends. He’s done this for so many people.”

It’s the kind of personal narrative that plays, especially in a small town like Hollywood. 

“The Oscars are not an international film festival. They’re very local,” Parasite filmmaker Bong Joon Ho said in 2019, before he became part of the local establishment with three Oscar wins. Even as the Academy have added a large number of international members, the majority of voters still reside in Hollywood.

Take this year. During her awards campaign, Demi Moore enlisted several of her industry pals, including Barrymore, Lucy Liu, and Cameron Diaz, for support. “I think I can speak for all of us — we are so proud of you,” Liu said during a reunion of the Charlie’s Angels: Full Throttle costars. “This performance, you’ve always had it in you and in all of the work that you’ve done.” 

In 2023, when Andrea Riseborugh received a shock Oscar nomination for To Leslie, it was after several prominent actors — including Moore, Gwyneth Paltrow, Kate Winslet, Edward Norton, and Cate Blanchett — spoke out in praise of her performance.

“Last night, we had the true pleasure of watching a masterpiece of a film called To Leslie,” Paltrow wrote on Instagram alongside a photo of herself with Moore, director Michael Morris, and Riseborough. “I am stunned by all of the performances. Andrea should win every award there is and all the ones that haven’t been invented yet.”

If Jay Kelly is as good as it sounds and if the Uncut Gems actor continues to show great skill in his more dramatic work it’s easy to imagine a similar collection of stars — including Jay Kelly actors such as Clooney, Laura Dern, Greta Gerwig, Riley Keough, and Billy Crudup — rallying around Sandler next year.

The right material

When Sandler was snubbed by the Academy in 2020 for Uncut Gems, presumably the closest he has ever come to an Oscar nomination, one reason was likely because the movie itself was polarizing — especially for older members of the Academy. That probably won’t be the case for Jay Kelly, which is being described by Netflix as a “heartbreaking comedy” potentially in the mode of Cameron Crowe circa Jerry Maguire, the movie that won Cuba Gooding Jr. an Oscar for his performance supporting Tom Cruise. 

Baumbach and his films haven’t always struck a chord with Academy voters — his first Netflix feature, Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected), featuring a great Sandler performance, was blanked. Only three of Baumbach’s performers have ever gotten Oscar nominations for their work: Adam Driver, Scarlett Johansson, and Dern, who won, all for Marriage Story. However, the good news is that Jay Kelly sounds more like a project that’s Marriage Story-adjacent and less like a continuation of Baumbach’s awards flop White Noise. Additionally, Sandler has shown he can generate awards momentum for more traditional fare. Three years after Uncut Gems, he starred as a basketball scout at the end of his rope in the Netflix drama Hustle and landed among the year’s Screen Actors Guild Award nominees — something he couldn’t manage for Uncut Gems.

The right time

 

It’s a cliché to say that the Academy doesn’t respect when actors known for doing comedies make an earnest attempt at dramas. However, that doesn’t make it untrue. With few exceptions — including Robin Wiliams for Good Will Hunting — several comedy icons who stretched out of their established box have never won an Academy Award, including Bill Murray and Eddie Murphy. Still, at least those guys got nominated. So maybe the time is right for Sandler to make good on his promise and follow in Murray’s path. Back in 1998, Murray made his awards-approved leap with Rushmore, but failed to turn his performance in the acclaimed indie film into an Oscar nomination. Three years later, however, Murray was nominated for Lost in Translation.

Sandler had done dramas before Uncut Gems — including Punch-Drunk Love, Funny People, and Meyerowitz Stories — and he studied dramatic performance in college. However, those projects still traded on the Sandler persona established by Happy Gilmore and Billy Madison. Uncut Gems, like Rushmore for Murray, presented the star in a new light and proved he could stretch beyond expectations. Seven years later, will Jay Kelly bring him to the Academy Awards a first-time nominee or will Sandler instead find himself dressed like a guy playing video poker at 2 a.m. on Oscar night?

Watch the Happy Gilmore 2 trailer: