NCAA bracket racket: All the last-minute things you need to know before Madness sets in
It was decided early on this men’s college basketball season, perhaps by godly decree (who can remember?), that the SEC was the best league in all the land.
That assumption would then build upon itself for months, as these things unfailingly do, informing pollsters’ opinions and powering all the metrics until, in self-fulfilling fashion, the result was this: 14 SEC teams in this NCAA Tournament, six more than the Big Ten, seven more than the Big 12, nine more than the Big East and 10 more than the ACC produced.
Does the SEC have the best chance to produce the champion? Clearly, by sheer volume of opportunity if nothing else.
But before you pack your Final Four picks with SEC teams — which would make sense given the league is represented by two of the top four seeds, and four of the top eight — at least take a moment to remember 2021. That year, the Big Ten enjoyed the same advantage on the top two seed lines, but what happened? No. 1 seed Illinois lost (to Loyola) in the second round, 2 seed Ohio State lost in the first round and fellow 2 Iowa lost in the second round. Michigan, the other 1 seed, bowed out in the Elite Eight.
Some other "foursomes" to help get you up to speed:
The four questions
One of concern for each No. 1 seed:
Did Auburn peak too soon? The Tigers are 1-3 in their last four games. Star Johni Broome is doing just fine, but multiple starters have trailed off in the scoring column and the bench contributed one measly basket in the SEC tourney loss to Tennessee.
Are expectations on Duke’s Cooper Flagg too high? Flagg, who reclassified during high school, got to college a year early and didn’t turn 18 until late December. He has passed one test after another, but now he’s contending with a sprained ankle in addition to the world of pressure on the shoulders of the presumptive No. 1 NBA pick. It won’t be easy.
Is Houston big enough? It’s oversimplifying only a bit to describe the Cougars as perimeter guys who score and “big” guys who don’t. If this team has anyone over 6-8 of note, we haven’t seen him yet. Kelvin Sampson makes the size thing work, clearly, but it’s something of a high-wire act.
Todd who? Florida coach Todd Golden has as many NCAA Tournament wins on his record as your Aunt Dotty. Until that changes, there should be skepticism.
Four bracket trends
If you’re still noodling around with your picks, this might help:
1. Since the expansion to 64 teams in 1985, No. 9 seeds have won their first-round matchups a shade over half the time. Both 10s and 11s are batting almost .400 in Round 1, 12s around .350 and 13s springing at least one upset in far more tournaments than not. Also, for what it's worth, a 15 reached the Sweet 16 in 2021 (Oral Roberts), the Elite Eight in 2022 (St. Peter’s) and the Sweet 16 in 2023 (Princeton).
2. A double-digit seed getting through to the Sweet 16 is a mortal lock, and you really should hitch your wagon to more than one of them. Do it and don’t look back.
3. Fewer than half (47%) of 4 seeds have survived beyond the first two rounds, so pick a pair of 4s and be done with it.
4. A little thing, but a First Four winner pretty much always then wins another game. Last year it was 10 seed Colorado, the year before that 11 Pittsburgh, the year before that 11 Notre Dame and the year before that 11 UCLA — which went all the way to the Final Four.
A first four
If I could watch only four first-round games — not counting Illinois’, that is — it would be these:
Midwest: 4 Purdue (-8½) vs. 13 High Point (11:40 a.m. Thursday, truTV): Before last year’s Zach Edey-led run, the Boilermakers were known for March stumbles. High Point can score, and this one could get very tense.
West: 7 Kansas (-4½) vs. 10 Arkansas (6:10 p.m. Thursday, CBS 2): It’s Bill Self against John Calipari, and one of them is about to make a first-round exit for the third (Self) or fourth (Calipari) year in a row.
South: 5 Michigan (-2½) vs. 12 UC San Diego (9 p.m. Thursday, TBS): Do you see how scrawny that point spread is? The Wolverines might be in instant trouble.
West: 8 UConn (-4½) vs. 9 Oklahoma (8:25 p.m. Friday, TNT): Sooners coach Porter Moser is in the tournament for the first time since leaving Loyola. Anybody ever heard of this so-called “UConn”?
Four coaches in need of a run
UCLA’s Mick Cronin: He doesn’t seem to enjoy where he works anymore, and Bruins fans aren’t exactly digging him. A great March makes it happier where he is or easier to leave for a different job.
Kansas’ Self: His last two teams have finished a combined 13 games out of first place in the Big 12. Is Self a top-10 coach right now or isn’t he? Sounds crazy to ask, but the answer might be no.
Memphis’ Penny Hardaway: It’s Year 7 at his alma mater, and he’s still stuck on one NCAA win to show for it.
Ben McCollum, Drake: The Iowa City native has a 30-3 team in his first season in Des Moines. Meanwhile, guess which in-state Big Ten school has an opening?