Early outlook for next winter: El Niño unlikely
AUSTIN (KXAN) -- We're getting our first look into next winter with the latest Climate Prediction Center ENSO (El Niño - Southern Oscillation) Outlook released on Thursday.
While currently in a La Niña pattern, we're expected to return to ENSO Neutral (neither La Niña nor El Niño) within the next month as sea surface temperatures in the Niño Zones return to near average, away from their cooler-than-normal phase that brought us into La Niña.
ENSO Neutral means that the water temperatures of the equatorial Pacific Ocean won't have a predictable impact on the weather pattern here in North America and that we must look at other signals and short or long-term pattern changes to figure out what type of weather we're likely to see.
That ENSO Neutral pattern, once it develops, is expected to continue through the summer season (June-August). It's what comes after that drives up curiosity...
Next winter: Two options rise above
Spring can be a particularly challenging time for forecast accuracy of ENSO with higher confidence in the forecast arriving in the summer.
The folks at NOAA refer to this as the "Spring Predictability Barrier" -- that is worth keeping in the back of our minds.
Still, the latest ENSO Outlook clearly favors either an ENSO Neutral pattern leading into next winter, or a second La Niña in a row. The lowest odds, ~20%, for a flip toward an El Niño pattern in time for next winter.
If we ruled out El Niño next winter...
While it's too early to guarantee El Niño won't return next winter (2025-2026), if we ruled it out, then parts of the country that are continuing to see expanding drought like the Southwest, South and parts of the Southeast shouldn't expect next winter to give them the typically wetter winter weather that often helps to ease those conditions.
El Niño winters typically bring the Pacific jet stream into the southern tier of states helping to guide storms (and precipitation) more frequently through those areas.
What remains...
That leaves two options as the prime contenders for a guide to next winter: La Niña or ENSO Neutral. A neutral pattern wouldn't really give us much of an indicator about next winter, but a typical La Niña would usually worsen the drought in the south and make for wetter weather in the Pacific Northwest and colder weather in the northern tier of the country.
Once we get past the "Spring Predictability Barrier" and reach meteorological summer, our confidence in the phase of ENSO for this coming winter should go up.