Verlander’s latest Cactus League start provides glimpse of underlying metrics

GLENDALE, Ariz. — The first handful of starts Justin Verlander has made this spring have been, in a way, a bit of a mystery.

Verlander’s first three Cactus League appearances this spring took place at Scottsdale Stadium, a venue with no Statcast capabilities. Aside from pure velocity, the spin rate and movement patterns of Verlander’s pitches have been unknown to the public. His specific pitch usage has been unclear, too. For the last month, the public has only had access to the eye test.

Monday, then, represented the first opportunity to examine what’s happening under the hood.

Verlander turned in another excellent outing as the Giants beat the Chicago White Sox at Camelback Ranch, 3-0, tossing five scoreless innings on 78 pitches with six strikeouts. His ERA in Cactus League play sits at 1.69 and his 16 innings lead San Francisco this spring. But what’s to be learned from his underlying metrics?

“He got a little tired at the end, which is good,” said manager Bob Melvin. “He’s working on his curveball. He’s working on his changeup. He’s pacing around the dugout like it’s a regular season game. It’s pretty impressive to watch. Some of the younger guys who are on the trip, but especially the position players, to see him do his thing in the dugout, it opens your eyes a little bit to how driven he is.”

Velocity needs no introduction, and Verlander’s four-seam fastball still has plenty of life. Verlander threw 37 four-seam fastballs for an average velocity of 94.3 mph — 0.8 mph faster than last year’s heater. He emptied the tank to finish his outing, striking out Chicago’s Luis Robert Jr. on a 96.5 mph fastball, his fastest pitch of the afternoon. In fact, Verlander threw his five hardest fastballs of the day — 95.2, 95.5, 95.7, 96.3, 96.5 — in that final at-bat against Robert.

Verlander committed a balk right before facing Robert and had some words for third-base umpire Nic Lentz, but Verlander said the velocity uptick wasn’t related to the balk and that he was going to empty the tank regardless.

“He let it go on what was going to be his last hitter,” Melvin said. “It’s the awareness of what he needs to do and fighting through in spring training.”

While Verlander’s velocity was healthy, the spin rate on his four-seam fastball was down several RPMs, or revolutions per minute. Last season, Verlander’s average four-seamer generated 2395 RPMs, the first time in the Statcast era that he didn’t average at least 2400 RPMs. Against the White Sox, Verlander’s four-seam fastball averaged 2338 RPMs. That would still be above average, but not in the 2500 RPM range he averaged in his prime.

When it comes to four-seam fastballs, higher spin rates mean more backspin, and more backspin means less drop. There’s no such thing as a “rising” fastball, but rather a fastball that doesn’t drop as a hitter expects. Verlander’s four-seam fastball may not have generated as much spin as previous years, his battle against Robert proved that there’s still plenty of velocity he can access.

Along with the four-seam fastball, Verlander’s curveball also warrants attention. Pitching coach J.P. Martinez told reporters that Verlander was working on a curveball with more horizontal movement, and the numbers from Verlander’s outing against the White Sox bore that out.

Last season, Verlander’s curveball generated an average of 7.2 inches of horizontal break. On Monday, by comparison, Verlander’s curveball averaged 10 inches of horizontal break — a difference of about three inches. To achieve that increased horizontal movement, Verlander has sacrificed some vertical drop.

In 2024, the right-hander’s average curveball had 59.2 inches of vertical drop. Against the White Sox, Verlander’s curveball had an average 50 inches of vertical drop — a difference of roughly nine inches. Verlander also had less spin on his curveball, going from 2685 RPMs, or revolutions per minute, last year to 2543 RPMs on Monday.

“I’m my greatest critic, so there are some things I think still need to be cleaned up, but overall, I think a lot of the mechanical adjustments I made in the offseason are having the intended results,” Verlander said. “I feel like I’m moving better. Some execution stuff, some nit picky things are there, but overall, very pleased.”