Cracketology: Dreaming of a White Selection Sunday

Marquette fans in Milwaukee were greeted this morning by a heap of snow falling on this most festive of days. We may not have had a White Christmas, but we certainly have a White Selection Sunday. Let's get a quick rundown of where things stand going into Selection Sunday.

The last 1-seed: I feel good about Florida here, even if they lose. I'll re-evaluate if Tennessee pulls it off, but Florida will have the better metrics and Q1+2 record regardless. If not, Florida is clearly the most dangerous 2-seed.

At Sixes & Sevens: There is certainly confusion and disorder at the end of the 6-seeds and start of the 7-seeds. It seems for the most part that Missouri, Kansas, UCLA, and Illinois are the root of that. I went with Missouri and Kansas on the 6-line because they have better top end wins and metric averages. I seem to be in the minority, but we'll see how it pans out. BYU is also a complication because depending on the order of the 3-seeds, they may not be able to play as a 6-seed. I'm projecting Wisconsin as Big 10 champs, which pushes them up to #10 overall and opens the door for BYU/Texas Tech in Wichita.

Marquette's Seed: Because of the metrics and the evolution of wins, I can't get Marquette higher than #29 overall, the top 8-seed. I'm prepared to be wrong because Marquette does have a 6-seed resume, but the top 7 lines are stronger than normal this year, which means everyone from the 6-line to the middle of the 8-line has a 6-seed resume or better. One more win and Marquette is probably a 6, but they didn't get it while other teams got just enough results to inch ahead. The Golden Eagles playing New Mexico in Auburn's Lexington pod has been in every scenario I've envisioned since yesterday morning.

Last Team In: I agonized over this last night and this morning. I was down to Xavier, UNC, and UC Irvine. The overall resume favors UC Irvine, the cleanest resume belongs to Xavier, and UNC has the best metrics. Ultimately, the UC Irvine loss to UCSD was one loss too many, which knocked them out (UCSD would've been an at-large). That left Xavier and UNC, and from Q1 record to wins over the field to best overall win, Xavier was the winner. I feel good about Xavier ahead of UNC, and felt good about them as my last team until Boise lost to Colorado State. That puts Boise back into the at-large field. They have a better resume average than Xavier, similar win away from home (Saint Mary's on a neutral), and six wins over the field to Xavier's three. For now, Boise State is my last team in.

Bid Thieves: George Mason (A-10) and UAB (American) remain as potential bid thieves. One winning would knock Boise State out, two would knock Indiana out as well. George Mason would slot in as a 12-seed, while UAB is likely a 13 or 14. Personally I'd love the bid thieves because it would take out the debate over the last two spots. I do think VCU would get in if GMU wins the A-10, likely heading to Dayton. Memphis would stay on the 8-line.

Surprise Exclusions: Teams that most everyone projects in that could be left out are Baylor and Vanderbilt. The Bears' 13-14 record in Q1-3 is uninspiring and while most of their losses are Q1A, they only have 1 win in that same quadrant. I've seen them as high as the 9-line, but they could be on the outside looking in. Vanderbilt has a great collection of wins, but their #331 NCSOS typically isn't good enough to get to Dayton. That alone could keep them out, especially because in terms of scheduling intent, teams like SEMO & Jackson State (both Q4) were projected to be even worse to start the season.

Surprise Inclusions: We covered the most likely bubble teams, but if someone's name shocks people by getting in, it's either Ohio State with their excellent collection of wins or UC Irvine. The Buckeyes have three wins over top-5 seeds (Maryland, Kentucky, Purdue) with the latter two away from home and three more Q1 wins away from home. UC Irvine set a record for the most road wins by a D1 team. While 10 were in Q3+4, they went 4-1 in true road games in Q1+2. That's impressive, and I'd be very happy to be wrong and see UC Irvine in the field.

Here's the updated S-Curve and bracket: