Extremely early Emmy odds: ‘Hacks,’ ‘The Bear’ expected to dominate comedy acting races (again)

If you're looking for a major shakeup at the 2025 Emmys, don't hold your breath for the comedy acting races to make waves. For the second year in a row, Hacks and The Bear are predicted to extend their streak of domination — led by Jean Smart and Jeremy Allen White, who are both undefeated for playing Deborah Vance and Carmen Berzatto, respectively.

The last time one of those two names wasn't called on Emmy night was in 2023, when Abbott Elementary's Quinta Brunson took home Best Comedy Actress during an off-season for Hacks. Last year, The Bear clawed its way to three of the four main acting prizes and swept both guest star categories (Jon Bernthal and Jamie Lee Curtis). Smart handed the FX series its only acting loss, snagging her third Emmy for Hacks over The Bear's Ayo Edebiri. Can anyone pull off an upset this year? Here's the state of the race in the comedy acting categories according to Gold Derby's odds.

Best Comedy Actress

PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Jean Smart, Hacks — 3/1
2. Ayo Edebiri, The Bear — 9/2
3. Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary — 11/2
4. Kristen Bell, Nobody Wants This — 13/2
5. Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building — 23/2
6. Kathryn Hahn, Agatha All Along — 13/1
—
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
7. Natasha Lyonne, Poker Face — 18/1
8. Bridget Everett, Somebody Somewhere — 50/1
9. Tina Fey, The Four Seasons — 50/1
10. Uzo Aduba, The Residence — 56/1

Smart is expected to win her fourth Emmy for playing Deborah Vance, a legendary Las Vegas comedian in the Max comedy. It would be the seventh overall win for Smart, who also has trophies for Frasier (2000, 2001) and Samantha Who? (2008). She's followed by two more Emmy winners: Edebiri, who upgraded to lead actress last year after winning Best Supporting Actress for FX's The Bear in 2023, and Brunson, who won this category for ABC's Abbott Elementary in 2023 in Smart's absence. Rounding out the predicted six nominees are Kristen Bell, who could secure her first-ever Emmy bid for Netflix's Nobody Wants This; Selena Gomez, who's seeking her second straight nomination for Hulu's Only Murders in the Building; and Kathryn Hahn, who plays Agatha Harkness in the Disney+ freshman series Agatha All Along.

Looking to boil over into contention is Poker Face star Natasha Lyonne, who returns for Season 2 of the Peacock comedy this May. She was previously nominated for Season 1 in 2023. Other long-shot contenders are Bridget Everett in HBO's critical darling, Somebody Somewhere; Tina Fey, a nine-time Emmy winner starring in Netflix's upcoming series The Four Seasons; and Uzo Aduba, a three-time Emmy champ who stars in Netflix's new show The Residence.

Best Comedy Actor

PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Jeremy Allen White, The Bear — 37/10
2. Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building — 19/5
3. Adam Brody, Nobody Wants This — 11/2
4. Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building — 7/1
5. Ted Danson, A Man on the Inside — 8/1
6. Jason Segel, Shrinking — 11/1
—
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
7. Seth Rogen, The Studio — 15/1
8. Matt Berry, What We Do in the Shadows — 70/1
9. Steve Carrell, The Four Seasons — 75/1
10. David Alan Grier, St. Denis Medical — 100/1

White is expected to win his third Emmy for The Bear, but for the first time ever, he may be vulnerable. Hoping to capitalize on his shocking victory at the 2025 SAG Awards is Martin Short, who finally took down White last Feb. for playing Oliver Putnam in Only Murders in the Building. Next in line is Adam Brody, who won the 2025 Critics Choice Award (where White wasn't even nominated) and picked up Golden Globe and SAG Awards bids for the debut season of Nobody Wants This. Rounding out the top six predicted nominees are Steve Martin (who hasn't won an Emmy since 1969 for The Smothers Brothers Comedy Hour) in Only Murders in the Building; two-time Emmy winner Ted Danson (Cheers) in Netflix's new comedy A Man on the Inside; and Jason Segel, who's seeking his second straight nomination for the Apple TV+ hit Shrinking.

This year's wildcard contenders are led by Seth Rogen, whose highly anticipated Apple TV+ comedy, The Studio, premieres March 26. Other potential spoilers are Matt Berry, who scored his first nomination last year for What We Do in the Shadows; 10-time Emmy nominee Steve Carrell for the yet-to-be-seen The Four Seasons; and comedy veteran David Alan Grier, who already scored a Critics Choice Award nomination for the new NBC comedy St. Denis Medical.

SEE Way too early Emmy odds: 'Hacks' leads 'The Bear' in Best Comedy Series rematch

Best Comedy Supporting Actress

PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Hannah Einbinder, Hacks — 3/1
2. Liza Colon-Zayas, The Bear — 4/1
3. Jessica Williams, Shrinking — 13/2
4. Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary — 13/2
5. Janelle James, Abbott Elementary — 10/1
6. Catherine O'Hara, The Studio — 10/1
—
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
7. Meryl Streep, Only Murders in the Building — 28/1
8. Patti LuPone, Agatha All Along — 50/1
9. Meg Stalter, Hacks — 100/1
10. Abby Elliott, The Bear — 100/1

The race for Best Comedy Supporting Actress may be one of the season's closest, but it still looks like another face-off between Hacks and The Bear. Hannah Einbinder holds a narrow lead over last year's champ, Liza Colon-Zayas, but the three-time Emmy nominee for Hacks has been in this position before. Last year, most predicted Einbinder would win the prize, but instead Colon-Zayas scored her first Emmy win for The Bear. The two-woman race almost makes the rest of the field feel like an afterthought, but there is another former winner in this pool — Abbott Elementary's Sheryl Lee Ralph, who took home the trophy in 2022. Other top contenders include Jessica Williams (a 2023 nominee for Shrinking), three-time Emmy nominee Janelle James in Abbott Elementary, and 2020 Best Comedy Actress winner for Schitt's Creek, Catherine O'Hara, who stars in the new Apple TV+ comedy The Studio. 

On the cusp of a nomination is awards heavyweight Meryl Streep in Only Murders in the Building. With three Oscars and three Emmys in her trophy case, Streep can never be overlooked — and just last year she snagged a bid in this very category for her role as actress Loretta Durkin in the Hulu comedy. Next up are Emmy nominee and three-time Tony winner Patti Lupone in Agatha All Along, Hacks fan-favorite Meg Stalter, and The Bear standout Abby Elliott.

Best Comedy Supporting Actor

PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear — 18/5
2. Harrison Ford, Shrinking — 4/1
3. Paul W. Downs, Hacks — 5/1
4. Michael Urie, Shrinking — 6/1
5. Tyler James Williams, Abbott Elementary — 9/1
6. Bowen Yang, Saturday Night Live — 16/1
—
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
7. Brett Goldstein, Shrinking — 20/1
8. Ike Barinholtz, The Studio — 48/1
9. Timothy Simons, Nobody Wants This — 100/1
10. Chris Perfetti, Abbott Elementary — 100/1

Two-time defending champ Ebon Moss-Bachrach is in solid position to score a hat trick for playing Richie Jerimovich in The Bear, but if the FX comedy loses steam for Season 3, Hollywood icon Harrison Ford could be the beneficiary. Despite never being nominated for an Emmy before, the Shrinking star is currently ranked second. Hot on their heels is Paul W. Downs for Hacks. He has won three Emmys for writing and producing the Max comedy, but finally scored his first acting nomination last year. Next in line are this year's Critics Choice Award winner, Michael Urie in Shrinking; Tyler James Williams, a three-time Emmy nominee for Abbott Elementary; and Bowen Yang, a four-time Emmy nominee for Saturday Night Live.

Down in tier two, Brett Goldstein shouldn't be completely dismissed for his Season 2 debut in Shrinking. The funnyman took home two Emmys for his role as Roy Kent in the Apple TV+ juggernaut Ted Lasso in 2021 and 2022. He's followed by Ike Birkenholtz in The Studio, Timothy Simons in Nobody Wants This, and Chris Perfetti in Abbott Elementary — all shows expected to fare well at the 2025 Emmys.

SIGN UP for Gold Derby’s free newsletter with latest predictions