Guardians AL Central Foes Preview: Minnesota Twins

We meet again

The Minnesota Twins and Guardians have gone back and forth quite a bit over recent seasons in AL Central supremacy - will Minnesota find its way back to the Central crown in 2025?

The Twins and Guardians both spent the offseason reshuffling the cards instead of fixing obvious holes in their lineups, but the Guardians had more to do to shore up a rotation, so they were more active as a whole. Let’s see how the two teams stack up by looking at the Twins’ lineup, rotation and bullpen:

Projected Lineup (Based on FanGraphs’ Roster Resources Depth Charts):
Matt Wallner - RF
Carlos Correa - SS
Byron Buxton - CF
Trevor Larnach - LF
Royce Lewis - 3B
Ryan Jeffers - C
Willi Castro - DH
Ty France - 1B
Brooks Lee - 2B

Bench:
Christian Vazquez - C
Jose Miranda - 1B/3B
Edouard Julien - INF
Harrison Bader - OF

Analysis: With the usual caveat that the Twins will need some modicum of health from oft-injured players like Correa, Buxton and Lewis, but I do think this lineup is superior to Cleveland’s by a notable degree, barring some significant breakout performances from Guardians’ players. Aside from the 8 and 9 spots, there isn’t a weak spot, and there’s a possibility France will have a bounce back season.

Rotation:
Pablo Lopez - RHP
Joe Ryan - RHP
Bailey Ober - RHP
Simeon Woods-Richardson - RHP
Chris Paddack - RHP

Analysis: The Twins have three good pitchers, and two interesting back of the rotation guys, but they also have solid depth behind them in the minors. That should raise their floor in case Lopez suffers another nagging injury. I don’t think the CEILING on this group is anywhere near as high as the Tigers’ rotation, but I’d mark them as a better rotation than the Guardians, at least until Shane Bieber returns.

Bullpen:
Jhoan Duran - RHP
Griffin Jax - RHP
Cole Sands - RHP
Brock Stewart - RHP
Danny Coulombe - LHP
Jorge Alcala - RHP
Kody Funderburk - LHP
Louis Varland - RHP

Analysis: The Twins have an excellent bullpen, likely the equal to the Guardians’ relief corps in talent. They also have established a reliable ability to churn out useful bullpen arms over the past few years. I’d place them just slightly below what the Guardians have, but that also may depend on how much the Guardians will trust Paul Sewald and how much Paul Sewald’s spring issues are indicative of ongoing issues or not. The Twins don’t have an obvious 2022 Emilio Pagan here, but the Guardians could have one in Sewald.

Projected Record from FanGraphs: 83-79

Bottom Line: I think the Twins are better on paper than the Guardians. Is it by 5 wins as FanGraphs projects? Maybe. I think I’d go for the Twins ending up with 88 wins and the Guardians 84 as things currently stand. But, I am perfectly willing to believe that the Guardians will surprise me and the Twins will delight me by collapsing again. The games aren’t played on paper and our guys have as much heart and will to win as any team in the game.