The Hitchhiker's Guide to avoiding a government shutdown tonight
Expect the Senate to take a test vote to break a filibuster around 2 p.m. ET today on the Republican stopgap spending bill.
This vote is the key to the entire ballgame. If the Senate breaks the filibuster, we are on a glidepath to a vote to avoid a government shutdown. But if this test vote fails, a government shutdown is all but ensured at 12:00:01 a.m. ET Saturday.
Reminder: THIS VOTE IS NOT THE FINAL PASSAGE OF THE BILL.
We should have a result on the vote to break the filibuster sometime in the 2 p.m. hour. Certainly by 3 p.m., unless they drag their feet.
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The calculus changed dramatically last night when Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., announced that he would support the Band-Aid bill. Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa., is also in favor. Sixty votes are needed to break the filibuster.
Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., is the lone GOP nay. So a grand total of eight Democrats are necessary to join the 52 Republican yeas to hit the magic mark of 60.
Here’s whom to watch: Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin, D-Ill., along with Sens. Tim Kaine, D-Va., John Hickenlooper, D-Co., Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., and others.
If Democrats fail to cobble together eight votes, this is a major miscalculation by Schumer. As it is said, a leader without any followers is just a man out for a walk.
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Here’s what we don’t know:
It’s unclear when the Senate would vote on the actual bill to align with the House if the Senate breaks the threshold of 60 yeas on the test vote. That will likely come late this afternoon or this evening. But those Democrats who may be willing to break a filibuster might demand a series of votes on amendments (which won’t pass) in exchange for their votes.
That includes a vote on the Democrats’ 28-day temporary spending bill, additional money for Washington and restrictions for DOGE.
Don’t underestimate how livid the left is at Schumer. Progressives who oppose the temporary spending bill could demand some time on the floor to speak against the plan.
But there is also an appetite to escape Washington since the Senate has been in session for 10 consecutive weeks. So, if they break the filibuster, that could accelerate things, too.