Which twenty-six Reds will we see?

A good bit has changed about the nature of the Cincinnati Reds roster mix since last we gave our best guess at who might be included on it come Opening Day.

Spencer Steer’s shoulder maintained its issues, and he received a cortisone shot back on March 1st. Andrew Abbott, though, has seen his shoulder progress well enough that he threw a pair of IP in a AAA game just yesterday. Rhett Lowder is still behind schedule, unfortunately, but at least it looks like he’s moving forward and not backwards. Speaking of ‘back,’ Tyler Stephenson headed for an MRI after lingering back pain.

Rule 5 draftee Cooper Bowman was sent back to the Oaksacvegas Athletics, while former top prospect Noelvi Marte was officially sent down to AAA.

That’s a lot to process, as are the risks of losing players in camp as non-roster invitees if they aren’t selected to start the season. Same goes for players with no options remaining, as they very well could be scooped up on waivers if not placed on the roster from day one.

With Opening Day now less that two weeks away (!!), here’s our latest, greatest estimate of which Reds will make up the Opening Day roster.

Catcher

I’ve got Tyler Stephenson (1) still on here alongside Jose Trevino (2), as all initial reports on Ty Steve’s back are that his issue is minor. It may mean we see more of Jose in the lineup early on, so far there’s nothing to suggest these aren’t the two backstops they’ll carry from day one.

Infielders (5)

Elly De La Cruz (3) and Matt McLain (4) are the cornerstones of this team, and they’ll form the middle infield. Christian Encarnacion-Strand (5) and Jeimer Candelario (6) seem to be locks in the corner rotation, while Santiago Espinal (7) has solidified his spot as the do-it-all infielder in reserve.

Gavin Lux

Gavin Lux (8)! He’ll see time at 3B, 2B, LF, and even at DH when the time is right. Since I’ve got Spencer Steer beginning the year on the IL, Lux’s versatility will help offset that usually created by having Steer on the roster for the time being.

Outfielders (5)

TJ Friedl (9) is back and healthy and poised to be the everyday CF and leadoff man all 4-WAR style once again. He’ll be flanked by Jake Fraley (10) and Austin Hays (11) most days, with Stuart Fairchild (12) a RHH option on days when Terry Francona wants to stack those up against southpaws. That brings us to Blake Dunn (13), whose RHH ability wins out in this mix over Will Benson since Lux, a LHH, is filling the ‘move anywhere when it’s time to switch’ role previously occupied by Steer, a RHH. In other words, I think Francona will choose to have one more righty bat around than another lefty.

Starting Rotation

Hunter Greene (14) will start on Opening Day, as well he should. He’ll be flanked in some order by each of Nick Martinez (15), Brady Singer (16), and Nick Lodolo (17) for sure at this point. Since the season is long as all heck, I just don’t think the Reds will rush back Andrew Abbott at anything less than ‘full stretched out,’ so I expect him to begin on the IL and miss a turn or two through the rotation - if anything, that may make him even more valuable down the stretch in August/September. I think the Reds carry Carson Spiers (18) as something of ‘starter on an expected bullpen day’ for the time being.

Bullpen

I don’t believe Graham Ashcraft (19) starts the year in the minors - rather, I think he’s carried as the piggyback guy for Spiers’ turn through the rotation with the expecation that he can fill-in for multiple IP when needed in a role akin to how Martinez began last year. Brent Suter (20), Sam Moll (21), and Taylor Rogers (22) form the LHP corps in the ‘pen, while Alexis Díaz (23) will resume his role as the closer. RHP options Emilio Pagán (24) and Scott Barlow (25) have guaranteed money on their deals, so they’ll be down there until they prove ten times they shouldn’t be, leaving one final spot that I’m expected to be filled by Tony Santillan (26) - he pitched well enough last year to deserve it and he’s out of options, so that’s a no-brainer.

Notes

Steer and Abbott are the two notable omissions here. Despite how dismal the Reds have begun seasons in recent memory (and how much that has folded any and all optimism entering those years immediately), I just think they’ll play it safe with them (and Lowder). Abbott getting ~27-28 starts is still very much viable, as is Steer surpassing 550 PA.

Ian Gibaut being back in camp is cool, and he’s fanned 8 against a lone walk in 7.0 IP so far this spring. He’s not on the roster, however, as a NRI on a minor league deal, so I don’t expect him to beat out the rest of the options above. That said, I do think he’s showing enough right now to firmly be in the mix as the first bullpen arm promoted when the inevitable dings happen to the rostered names ahead of him.

Chase Petty has looked really, really solid so far in camp, and at this rate he’ll make his debut (and more) as a Red at some point this year...just not on Opening Day or in the first few turns of the rotation, assuming all goes well elsewhere.