Sorting out the Cincinnati Reds lineup (read: lineups)
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Who plays where? Who doesn’t? Who’s headed back to AAA? Just how many 1B/DH guys can they roster?
When spring camp began in Goodyear, Arizona one year ago, there were precious few ‘knowns’ around the Cincinnati Reds lineup.
Matt McLain and Will Benson had been bonkers good for the club the prior season.
Elly De La Cruz flashed ability, but struggled mightily more often than not.
TJ Friedl had posted a ~4 WAR season and looked like one of the better CF options in all of baseball.
Jake Fraley and Stu Fairchild formed a potent 20 dinger platoon, Spencer Steer looked like a bona fide offensive star, and the power potential of Christian Encarnacion-Strand had 40 homer predictions looming for the heir apparent at 1B.
Noelvi Marte, in many circles, was about to win the National League Rookie of the Year.
Then, like clockwork, the Baseball Gods made sure literally zero of those things replicated themselves in 2024. Such, unfortunately, is often the case when the body of work put forth by a young, inexperienced team still falls firmly on the small size of samples.
There is ‘hope’ among the Reds brass that many of the bads from last year rebound. Their offseason strategy of not addressing any of the offensive issues that failed the team last year echoes that in spades. Which players can immediately eschew their 2024 foibles - and which ones will get the first chance to - still remains to be seen, with a versatile bunch that’s doubled up in depth in places all competing for spots on the Opening Day roster.
We’ve already looked closer at the bullpen and the starting rotation options in camp, though that information immediately became dated as injuries and soreness popped up.
Here’s a closer look at the options manager Terry Francona has on his table.
The obvious incumbents
Elly De La Cruz picked up down-ballot MVP votes last year in a brilliant, emergent campaign as the next face of the Reds. He’ll be the team’s primary SS and, if all is right with the world, sock over 30 homers and swipe over 60 bags while seeing his defense and pitch recognition gradually improve. He, quite simply, is a superstar.
Tyler Stephenson should have a contract extension by now. He’d probably love to ink one at this moment, as he’s fresh off the best season of his big league career, one where he socked 19 homers, stayed healthy enough to pick up 515 PA, and posted an excellent 112 OPS+. He’ll catch plenty, but it wouldn’t be a terrible idea to get him some DH/1B reps to keep his bat in the lineup.
The immovable object
Jeimer Candelario saw his walk rate plummet to career lows, watched as his defense fell completely off the cliff at 3B, turned 31, and ranked in the 13th percentile or worse in each of xwOBA, xBA, Average Exit Velocity, Bat Speed, Chase %, and Range. The areas where he ranked better than 13th percentile weren’t much better, either. He’s owed $16 million for 2025 and at least $16 million for 2026, so he’s not going anywhere - the Reds best hopes now are a) it was a foot injury sapping everything last year and b) he plays well, plays often, and either resuscitates his Reds career well enough to lead a young team to the promised lan or resuscitates it enough to be a feasible trade option at the deadline to free up some cash. He, like so many others, should probably be in the 1B/DH only mix, but obviously not everyone can just do that...so he’ll likely get 3B reps until he shows he can’t.
The prodigal sons
Matt McLain was shelved in late 2023 with an oblique injury, said oblique injury persisted into the winter, and he tweaked a shoulder in spring camp last year that required surgery and ended his year before it ever began. That all came after a slight swing change resulted in more power in 2023 than we’d ever seen from him. Was the swing change causing those issues? Will it be the same in 2025, or will he revert back to his old swing to stay healthy? What we do know is that he’ll be the 2B everyday while the Reds find out, and the hope is he can rediscover the budding stardom he found in 2023 pre-injury.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand socked 13 homers in just 63 games at the big league level at the end of 2023, and that came after he swatted 20 in just 67 games for AAA Louisville. Big power is his calling card, but no power and a busted wrist became the signature of his lost 2024. He is in camp and bordering on Best Shape of His Life territory, but will likely be only in the mix for 1B/DH duties (along with seemingly half the potential roster). Complicating things a bit is that he’s a RHH who actually hits RHP better than LHP historically, so a sipmly ‘platoon’ to work him back into things doesn’t sound like the best idea. Will he show enough in camp to suggest he’s ‘back,’ or will he begin at AAA again as he builds back up his timing?
TJ Friedl
TJ Friedl is perhaps the least replaceable position player on the Reds roster. He’s no Elly, obviously, but the Reds do have other SS capable guys around. What the Reds do not have anywhere is a CF who has ~4 WAR upside because of a great combo of speed, defense, plate patience, and enough pop. Somehow, though, Friedl has entered the year he’ll turn 30 already, and his hamstrings sapped all manner of production from him last year (along with other freak injuries). If he can be the guy he was before, he’s an absolutely vital asset both in CF and in the leadoff spot. I really, really don’t like this Reds lineup without peak TJ in it.
The bounce-backs
Spencer Steer was not bad in 2024, but he sure wasn’t the same guy he was in 2025. Was it the nagging shoulder issue that he’s still unfortunately dealing with? Was it simply a BABIP problem? His hard-hit rate and bat speed were actually better in 2024 than in 2023, after all. When right, he’s a key piece of the offense even though he’ll likely get time in LF, maybe at 3B, definitely at 1B, and probably should be mostly a DH - have you heard that before in this article? - and he’ll need to rebound against LHP to his previous levels. How quickly he gets over this shoulder issue will be a big part of that, too.
I am not going to judge Jake Fraley on any baseball statistic he put up in 2024. His five year old daughter was diagnosed with leukemia prior to last season, and while she’s in remission, I can’t begin to imagine the mental and physical strain the chemo and recovery process put his entire family through last year. Jake’s going to get starts against RHP in RF whenever there’s one on the mound in 2025 and I hope he knocks the cover off the ball every chance he gets.
Bench guys by design
Santiago Espinal got reasonably hot during the second half of the season when being asked to play a lot more often than anyone really imagined, and that led to the Reds keeping him around for $2.4 million in arbitration ahead of other potential infield options like Ty France. He can play all over the infield, and he will on days off for the guys ahead of him. He’s pretty much the quintessential infield backup guy.
Jose Trevino is an excellent defensive catcher who was brought in to be the quintessential backup to a guy like Stephenson who should, when healthy, be playing all the time. That’s a good thing to have, and the hope is Jose will hit a bit better than Luke Maile did last year, too.
Stuart Fairchild can hit LHP at a palatable rate and make highlight catches across the OF. He’s not going to run you out of games on the bases, and - important to these Reds - he’s still pretty cheap. As 5th OF slash platoon guys go, he’s fine, and that’s precisely how he’ll help balance out this roster. He’s also out of options, so that should give him the job on day one even if, say, Blake Dunn tries to muscle him out of it with an impressive spring camp.
The new wrinkles
Gavin Lux should be a 2B, and pretty much only a 2B. McLain, though, is the 2B, so Lux is going to have to hit his way into the lineup elsewhere in a perfect world. He hits RHP well and LHP not at all, so he’s already staring at being a strong-side platoon option, but where? In LF against RHP? At 3B with an arm that’s rated about as poor as they come at the big league level? At 1B/DH with the rest of the roster? A solid insurance plan everywhere but not the de facto everyday bat we hoped the Reds would go get when the offseason began.
Austin Hays is a solid insurance plan against LHP but not the de facto everyday bat we hoped the Reds would go get when the offseason began. Did I type that somewhere else already in this article? The Reds are betting that the 30 year old to-be was merely banged up during a down 2024, but his defense suggests he really should be a DH more than a corner OF at this stage, and likely sit for someone better against RHP. Is there someone better, though?
Destined for AAA...and redemption?
Noelvi Marte was dinged for an 80-game PED suspension last spring and looked positively awful in a long-leash sample after returning. Everything was bad, from his walk rate to strikeouts to power to defense. Is there a chance that, at age 23, he can show up in camp and hit his way back into the Opening Day mix? Absolutely, as he was a top-tier prospect for years for a reason. He’s got a mountain to climb to prove it’s more than a fluke right now, though, and all signs point to him heading to AAA Louisville to rediscover his form.
Will Benson was a 1st round pick of the Cleveland Guardians when Terry Francona was the manager of the club, and it was Tito who gave Benson his first big league call-up during a 2022 season where Francona won AL Manager of the Year. Of course, Tito was still manager of Cleveland when they gave up on Benson and dealt him to Cincinnati, so I don’t know if the familiarity here is a boon or drag on Benson’s ability to bounce back in 2025 after a dismal 2024. The talent is there, but with Fraley and Lux in the mix is there enough room in the OF for another LHH?
Rece Hinds showed us each and every corner of his scouting report in his first big league action last year. Insane power? Check! Huge hole in his swing? Check! Proclivity for streakiness that runs both as hot (and as cold) as you could possibly imagine? Check, check, check! The Reds will once again hope he can find a way to refine that a bit for them, and that will be at AAA.