Trump trades tariffs with US allies while consumers brace for supply chain snarls

• Donald Trump on Saturday implemented new tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China.
• Canada and Mexico's leaders implemented retaliatory tariffs on the US in response.
• Retailers and trade researchers told BI they expect price hikes on consumer goods as tensions rise.

Retailers and consumers alike are bracing for the impacts of a new trade policy after President Donald Trump on Saturday fulfilled an oft-repeated campaign pledge by implementing new tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China.

The executive orders include a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico and a 10% tariff on China, which the Trump administration says is an effort to address the fentanyl crisis. In response to Trump's new trade policy, Canada and Mexico's leaders implemented retaliatory tariffs against the US, heightening tensions between the North American trade partners.

"The supply chains will be totally disrupted," William George, director of research at trade database company ImportGenius, told Business Insider. "The disruption this will cause for consumer purchases cannot be overstated."

BI previously reported economists predict many firms will pass increased costs caused by tariffs onto customers, and several companies — including Walmart and Columbia Sportswear — have already said they are preparing to raise prices in response.

Electronics, groceries, and apparel are among the most likely products to see price increases.

Companies try to stave off increases

George, whose company tracks details about shipments of goods to and from the US and around the globe, told BI that some big companies prepared for the president to implement his plan for new taxes and restrictions by frontloading shipments of goods in an apparent effort to stave off supply chain disruptions for as long as possible.

"Walmart's China-originating US maritime imports are up over 33% from 2023 to 2024," George said. That increase accounts for at least 14,000 additional shipping containers of imports brought in ahead of the expected tariff increases, he added.

ImportGenius data shows Columbia Sportswear's year-over-year imports were also up — over 50% from 2023 to 2024 and over 80% during the March to December period in 2024, when frontloading activity is believed to have spiked.

Representatives for Walmart and Columbia Sportswear did not immediately respond to requests for comment from BI.

Christopher Tang, a UCLA professor and global supply chain scholar, said product stockpiles from major companies could keep prices steady at big box stores for a few weeks. Still, he expects price increases will soon hit shelves even for the most prepared businesses.

"They cannot buy all the inventory they'll need forever, so in forward buying scenarios, you'll see maybe a couple of weeks of inventory," Tang said. "Down the road, there are estimates that it will cost around $3,000 extra for the consumer to buy a car that's made in Mexico due to the tariffs. Let's hope it doesn't come to that."

Not every retailer has the resources to frontload shipping, so price increases may hit sooner. BI previously reported that some small business owners are working to diversify their supply chains, which may also come with increased costs, and others are planning to add new service fees to their products to offset anticipated price hikes.

"We're suffering with already high prices on everything — on meat, on eggs — and everything's going to go up again," Ruben Guerra, chairman of the Latin Business Association, representing 800,000 Latino businesses in California, told BI. "All the Mexican companies that I know and businesses across the border are all sending me responses saying 'Something needs to be done. We're going to lose a lot of business.'"

Heightened tensions risk a trade war

Outrage from consumers and business owners is a feature of the tariffs, not a bug, Tang, the UCLA professor, told BI. He said it would likely increase pressure on the governments of Mexico, Canada, and China to negotiate quickly with the Trump administration to meet its policy demands over border security — but the move is risky.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Saturday evening announced 25% retaliatory tariffs on goods imported from the US, in response to the tariffs Trump levied on Canadian imports. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum late Saturday also imposed retaliatory 25% tariffs on imported US goods in response to Trump's trade moves, per Reuters.

BI previously reported economists predict China will respond similarly, with retaliatory tariffs, limiting exports of raw materials used for semiconductor production, or other changes to its trade policies to squeeze the US economy. No such measures have yet been announced.

"I think consumers need to prepare that this is going to affect everybody in the country, not just a couple of businesses," Guerra said.