Are the Toronto Raptors winning too much?
Just when we all accepted that this was a tanking for Cooper Flagg season, the Raptors are... winning?
Never thought I’d be posing this question, but are the Toronto Raptors winning too much?
I love a moral victory as much as the next person, but the Raptors have now won three of their last four games. All three wins felt like trap games too — Steph Curry’s Golden State Warriors, the champion Boston Celtics, and the finally rising from the ashes Orlando Magic.
They now have a record of 11-32, and again I’m not overly MAD they are playing well enough to win, but I had just accepted that this team was tanking hard.
We’ve been through a few years of the sort-of, kind-of tank, but this year felt like THE year to tank. Elite talent in Cooper Flagg as he plays at Duke, poised to go first overall, a player that the Raptors could add to their current Barnes-centred lineup.
So, are they winning too much to be in the running for the number one pick? Let’s take a look at a few factors here:
League Standings
At 11 wins and 32 losses, the Raptors currently sit 14th in the Eastern conference, second to last. Yet, they are slightly gaining on the Charlotte Hornets, who sit 13th and have a record of 11-28. The Brooklyn Nets are not that far ahead, with a record of 14-30 in 12th. From there, you start getting dangerously close to Play-In tournament contention, and as Masai Ujiri once said, “play-in for what?” Especially when Cooper Flagg is available.
The issue here is that the 15th team in the conference is Washington, and they currently have six wins on the season. The Raptors are dangerously close to doubling that, and it doesn’t seem like the Wizards are catching up any time soon.
In the Western Conference, only one team has less wins than Toronto, which is a good sign. The Utah Jazz sit at a record of 10-31, and the New Orleans Pelicans sit just above the Raptors at 12-32.
So right now, the Raptors are the third worst team in the league when you only take standings into account.
Let’s Play Tankathon!
Now, as with any lottery system, there is a bit of luck and mystique that goes into these things. Just because you have the worst record in the league, doesn’t mean you automatically get the first overall pick. That would be boring. NBA ratings are suffering as it is!
Now, the more you lose, the better your draft odds are, certainly. Sports bros love to talk odds these days, so let’s do it. I am a woman of the people.
When we pull up our handy little tankathon, the Toronto Raptors currently have a 14% chance at securing the no.1 pick in the 2025 NBA draft**. They sit third, like we mentioned previously.
**I am running these numbers on Wednesday Jan 22, subject to change ofc
The Toronto Raptors also currently have a 52.1% chance of getting a top-4 pick in the draft, similar to 2021, when they drafted Scottie Barnes no.4 overall.
Okay, so we know the current odds, let’s do a few spins of the sim lottery function. I PROMISE I AM NOT LYING ABOUT WHAT I ROLL. I would never jest with the integrity of tankathon, how dare you think I would.
Roll #1:
1) New Orleans Pelicans 2) Portland Trail Blazers 3) Washington Wizards 4) Charlotte Hornets 5) Utah Jazz 6) Toronto Raptors
TERRIBLE results wow. The Raptors drop from 3rd to SIXTH, similar to last year when they dropped to 8th (and had to give that pick away anyway).
Based on this roll, the Raptors need to stop winning immediately.
Roll #2:
1) Utah Jazz 2) Washington Wizards 3) Charlotte Hornets 4) New Orleans Pelicans 5) Toronto Raptors
Again, not ideal. The Raptors entirely miss the top-4 again in this roll while the teams that are bordering them in terms of odds beat them out. Yikes.
Roll #3:
1) Washington Wizards 2) New Orleans Pelicans 3) Charlotte Hornets 4) Phoenix (Houston owns) 5) Utah Jazz 6) Toronto Raptors
Wow this is going terribly! Three rolls in and the Raptors haven’t even cracked the no.4 overall pick. What is this all for?! I mean, there are great prospects in the lottery and Ujiri and Bobby Webster will find them, but man what’s all this losing for if you’re still getting beat out?
Let’s continue for a few more, out of curiosity.
Roll #4:
1) Toronto Raptors 2) Utah Jazz 3) New Orleans Pelicans 4) Charlotte Hornets
FINALLY. We did it, Joe. Stop the count, these are the draft lottery results. Cooper Flagg, YOU are a Toronto Raptor. Get ready to Caribana, buddy. A little disheartening it took four spins to get us here, but we move.
Let’s roll one last time for fun.
Roll #5:
1) Toronto Raptors 2) New Orleans Pelicans 3) Chicago Bulls 4) Brooklyn Nets
I LIKE THESE ROLLS NOW. Is it really possible? Could we get the no.1 pick? These back to back rolls seem to suggest it’s still possible despite the fact that it took a little bit to get here. I know when to exit on a high note, so this will be our final roll for now.
So, what do you think? Are the Toronto Raptors winning too much to tank? Or are they still steadily balancing the line of wins they can accumulate before the tank is in jeopardy?