Best Picture Oscar breakdown, from the locks (‘The Brutalist’) to the long shots (‘September 5’)

The 2025 Oscar nominations will finally be announced on Thursday and provide some clarity to what has been a wide-open race. Contrary to last year, when Oppenheimer led from start to finish, the 2025 contenders have oscillated dramatically, with several films vying to secure a spot among the year’s top 10 contenders. So, which movies are currently locks, which are still on the bubble, and which are long shots to be announced come Thursday? Here is our breakdown of the Best Picture Oscar nominations.

Locks

The Brutalist — 6/1 odds

Best Actor front-runner Adrien Brody plays visionary architect László Tóth who, with his wife (Felicity Jones), flees post-war Europe in 1947 to rebuild their legacy and witness the birth of the modern United States. The epic period drama directed by Brady Corbet won Golden Globes for Best Film Drama, Best Director and Best Actor (Brody) — and has racked up all the precursor nominations needed to solidify it as one of the year’s front-runners (BAFTA, PGA, DGA, Critics Choice). Further establishing itself as an across-the-board favorite, The Brutalist is predicted to contend in 10 categories at the 2025 Oscars, according to the latest Gold Derby odds.

Anora — 13/2 odds

Since premiering at Cannes, where it won the prestigious Palme d’Or award, Sean Baker‘s comedy about a young Brooklyn sex worker (Mikey Madison) who impulsively marries the son of a Russian oligarch (Mark Eydelshteyn) has been popping up all over the awards circuit. The seven-time BAFTA nominee (including Best Picture) is also up for the SAG Awards Best Ensemble prize and has been cited by PGA, DGA, WGA, Critics Choice, and the Golden Globes. Anora is predicted to receive six Oscar nominations.

Conclave — 13/2 odds

In director Edward Berger‘s Conclave, Cardinal Lawrence (Ralph Fiennes) is tasked with leading one of the world’s most secretive and ancient events — selecting a new pope. While doing so, he finds himself at the center of a conspiracy that could shake the very foundation of the Catholic Church. The 12-time BAFTA nominee (including Best Picture) is also in contention for Best Ensemble at the SAG Awards and received bids from PGA, DGA, WGA, Critics Choice, and the Golden Globes. Winner of the National Board of Review’s Best Ensemble, Conclave is predicted to receive nine Oscar nominations.

Emilia Pérez — 15/2 odds

Winner of this year’s Golden Globe for Best Comedy/Musical, French director Jacques Audiard‘s Emilia Pérez follows four remarkable women in Mexico, each pursuing their own happiness. Cartel leader Manitas (Karla Sofía Gascón) enlists Rita (Golden Globe winner Zoe Saldana), an unappreciated lawyer, to help fake his death and transition into the title character to live authentically as her true self. The bold musical led all nominees at the Golden Globes, with 10 total, and picked up 11 BAFTA bids. The film also solidified its “lock” status with mentions from PGA, DGA, SAG, and Critics Choice. Emilia Pérez is predicted to receive 10 Oscar nominations.

Wicked — 8/1 odds

Director Jon M. Chu‘s adaptation of Broadway’s Wicked is this year’s most popular Oscar contender. The high-flying musical starring Cynthia Erivo as Elphaba and Ariana Grande as Galinda won the Golden Globe for Cinematic Box Office Achievement after raking in over $460 million domestically (and nearly $700 million worldwide). The National Board of Review named Wicked the best film of 2024 and the seven-time BAFTA nominee (though not for Best Picture) also picked up important precursor bids from PGA, WGA, Critics Choice, and the Golden Globes. Wicked is predicted to nab eight Oscar nominations.

Dune: Part Two — 12/1 odds

Denis Villeneuve‘s highly anticipated sequel to 2021’s 10-time Oscar nominee (and six-time winner), Dune: Part One, is arguably even better. Dune: Part Two shows Paul Atreides (Timothée Chalamet) unite with the Fremen while on a warpath of revenge against the conspirators who destroyed his family. The epic space opera is nominated for seven BAFTAS (including Best Director) and was up for two Golden Globes (including Best Film Drama). It may be light in the acting categories, but it’s heavy in crafts — still managing Best Picture bids from PGA and Critics Choice. Dune: Part Two is expected to be nominated for seven Oscars.

A Complete Unknown — 13/1 odds

One of the awards season’s late-breakers, A Complete Unknown is James Mangold‘s biographical music drama starring Timothée Chalamet as iconic singer-songwriter Bob Dylan. Many assumed the biopic would just be an acting showpiece for Chalamet, but once the film was released in December it quickly became a strong contender across the board. The movie earned three Golden Globe nominations before picking up six BAFTA bids, including Best Picture — where only five films are selected. It was also nominated by PGA, DGA, WGA and Critics Choice, putting it in solid position for the Academy Awards. A Complete Unknown is predicted to be nominated for five Oscars.

The Bubble Bunch

The Substance — 16/1 odds

The Academy isn’t known for celebrating body horror, but Coralie Fargeat‘s The Substance has been picking up steam — further cemented by Demi Moore‘s inspiring Golden Globe win for Best Comedy/Musical Actress. Moore plays Elisabeth Sparkle, a fading celebrity who takes a black-market drug: a cell-replicating substance that temporarily creates a younger, better version of herself — Sue (Margaret Qualley). Pundits were initially skeptical about the film’s ability to translate critical acclaim into industry awards, but The Substance earned five BAFTA nominations and checked off precursor boxes from PGA and Critics Choice. The Substance is predicted to be nominated for five Oscars.

Sing Sing — 18/1 odds

If Oscar nominations were determined by Rotten Tomatoes scores, Sing Sing would be leading the field. However, this little-seen movie released in limited theaters last July failed to pick up traction despite celebrity endorsements from the likes of Jane Fonda and Sharon Stone. Director Greg Kwedar tells the story of Divine G (Colman Domingo), a man wrongfully imprisoned at Sing Sing who finds purpose by acting in a theatre group alongside other incarcerated men. The true story managed just a single nomination for Domingo at the Golden Globes and SAG Awards, but fared better with BAFTA, earning three total: Best Actor (Domingo), Best Supporting Actor (Clarence Maclin), and Best Adapted Screenplay. The film’s lone Best Picture nomination came from the Critics Choice Awards. Sing Sing is predicted to be nominated for four Oscars.

A Real Pain — 20/1 odds

A labor of love from writer, director, and star, Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain has become a real favorite among critics. Eisenberg stars alongside Best Supporting Actor front-runner, Kieran Culkin, as mismatched cousins who reunite for a tour through Poland to honor their beloved grandmother. The film won a Golden Globe for Culkin and picked up three more nominations for Best Comedy/Musical Film, Best Comedy/Musical Actor (Eisenberg), and Best Screenplay. It earned a pair of BAFTA nominations, a WGA bid, and was among the PGA’s top 10 films of the year. A Real Pain is predicted to be nominated for three Oscars.

Long Shots

Nickel Boys — 33/1 odds

Based on the Pulitzer Prize-winning novel by Colson Whitehead, Nickel Boys chronicles the powerful friendship between two young African-American men navigating the harrowing trials of reform school together in Florida. RaMell Ross took a risk by shooting the film in first-person point-of-view, which has earned the director and cinematographer, Jomo Fray, much of the movie’s praise this awards season. With singular nominations at the Golden Globes (Best Film Drama), WGA, and BAFTAs (Best Adapted Screenplay), Nickel Boys has fallen out of our top 10, but could still have enough passion votes to make the cut. Nickel Boys is predicted to be nominated for two Oscars.

September 5 — 100/1 odds

Director Tim Fehlbaum‘s historical thriller is set during the 1972 Olympics in Munich, Germany. An American sports broadcasting team must adapt to live coverage of Israeli athletes being held hostage by a terrorist group. After a limited theatrical release in December, September 5 went nationwide on Jan. 17, the day Oscar voting closed. The film may have been late to the awards party, missing most of the important precursors, but it’s still in prime position to stage an upset. A Golden Globe nomination for Best Film Drama gave September 5 a glimmer of hope, but being named one of PGA’s top 10 films could be its saving grace. After all, PGA went 10 for 10 last year, matching up perfectly with the Academy’s Best Picture nominees. Will lightning strike twice?

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