The Hotline’s ridiculously early Top 25: Ohio State, Clemson (yes, Clemson) and Penn State look loaded for the 2025 season

The 2025 season begins in seven months and two days, with a modest lineup of Week Zero games.

The Hotline’s preview starts now, with the 18th annual installment — or maybe it’s the 19th? — of our ridiculously early Top 25 projections.

The winter transfer portal is closed for all players except those at Ohio State and Notre Dame, who have five days to enter following the national championship.

It reopens in the spring, and we’ll update these rankings once rosters are set for training camp.

(My final AP ballot for the 2024 season can be found here.)

Also considered: Army, Auburn, Colorado, Connecticut, Duke, Iowa, Kansas State, Louisville, LSU, Marshall, Memphis, Mississippi, Missouri, Navy, Oklahoma, Syracuse, TCU, Texas A&M, Tulane, USC and Washington.

1. Ohio State

As they did in 2021 with CJ Stroud, the Buckeyes will hand the keys to their machine to an inexperienced quarterback from Southern California. This time, it’s former five-star prospect Julian Sayin, the Carlsbad native who transferred  from Alabama last winter after Nick Saban’s retirement. There are holes to fill, of course, but blue-chip recruits are on the bench waiting their turn. And the Buckeyes will have the best players in the country on offense (receiver Jeremiah Smith) and defense (safety Caleb Downs).

2. Clemson

The Tigers are undoubtedly ranked higher by the Hotline than they will be in other early projections, so allow us to explain: Hiring defensive wiz Tom Allen away from Penn State will have an impact comparable to what we witnessed at Ohio State with Chip Kelly taking charge of the offensive playbook. And if Clemson improves marginally on defense, especially against the run, it should roll through the ACC. Points won’t be a problem with quarterback Cade Klubnik returning for his senior season.

3. Penn State

The Nittany Lions will be without the services of the most disruptive defensive player in the country, defensive end Abdul Carter, and the best offensive player on their team, tight end Tyler Warren. Both are off to the NFL. But there’s plenty to like about the 2025 depth chart, including veteran quarterback Drew Allar and tailbacks Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen. If they find an A-level receiver, the Nittany Lions could be the last team standing a year from now.

4. Texas

The Arch Manning era surely sounds good to Longhorn ears, but the trajectory of the season depends largely on coach Steve Sarkisian fortifying the lines of scrimmage. The personnel losses up front are substantial, particularly on offense. Once again, Texas gets a break with the SEC schedule rotation, but the season opener is darn tasty: Aug. 30, at Ohio State.

5. Notre Dame

Don’t mistake the Irish for a one-year wonder — coach Marcus Freeman is recruiting at the level needed to reach the CFP on a regular basis. The offensive line might be the best in the country next season, and the defense is masterfully coached by Al Golden. To the extent it matters given the stockpile of talent across 21 other positions, there’s uncertainty at quarterback. Steve Angeli, who played well in a brief stint in the Orange Bowl, is the frontrunner.

6. Georgia

The spotlight will shine brightest on quarterback Gunner Stockton as he (presumably) takes over for Carson Beck. But the Bulldogs have other issues to solve if they hope to return to the sport’s pinnacle. (For example: Receivers who catch the ball regularly.) Generally speaking, the Bulldogs weren’t nearly as crisp with the details in 2024 as they typically are under Kirby Smart.

7. Oregon

What the Ducks are losing to the NFL — and make no mistake: the attrition is substantial — they will assuredly replace with elite recruits and impact transfers. But what about the linebackers and secondary? Both areas were exploited by Penn State in the Big Ten championship and Ohio State in the Rose Bowl. Also, is inexperienced quarterback Dante Moore good enough to prevent any regression in the Ducks’ efficiency compared to the Bo Nix and Dillon Gabriel years? We’re skeptical.

8. Illinois

With Indiana’s breakthrough and the success in Columbus, Eugene and State College, the Big Ten was so stocked with storylines that it was easy to miss Illinois’ improvement in Year 4 under Bret Bielema. But with 10 wins banked in 2024 and quarterback Luke Altmyer leading an experienced depth chart, the Illini should not be ignored again.

9. Brigham Young

The Cougars were ranked too low by the CFP selection committee, then thumped Colorado in the Alamo Bowl for their 11th win. We suspect they will be overlooked in many early forecasts for 2025, as well, with so much of the Big 12 attention directed at Arizona State. But the Hotline expects a huge season in Provo with quarterback Jake Retzlaff set to return, along with tailback LJ Martin and a load of impact players on defense.

10. Florida

Few teams finished the season with more momentum than the Gators, who beat LSU, Mississippi, Florida State and Tulane (in the Gasparilla Bowl) to reach the eight-win mark. The success cooled coach Billy Napier’s seat and set the stage for a return to relevance in 2025 with D.J. Lagway, one of the most dynamic young quarterbacks in the country.

11. Texas Tech

The absence of powerhouse programs in the Big 12 leaves an open road for any program that makes the necessary talent acquisitions, and the Red Raiders have done just that since the transfer portal opened last month. Their class of newcomers is ranked third nationally by 247Sports and features seven four-star players (and counting). And Behren Morton, who threw 27 touchdown passes this season, is back for one last shot at the conference title.

12. Tennessee

The success sustainability index is high in Knoxville with quarterback Nico Iamaleava carrying the experience gained from 379 passing attempts in his freshman season. The loss of tailback Dylan Sampson is significant, but that’s what the transfer portal is all about.

13. Miami

The Hurricanes will never lack for talent in the Mario Cristobal era, and that’s indisputably true of the 2025 depth chart: Out goes Cam Ward (to the NFL), and in comes Carson Beck, the former Georgia starter who should be recovered from elbow surgery. That said, a CFP appearance hinges on Miami maximizing its personnel without a costly stumble along the way, which is hardly a given.

14. Boise State

Look for a more diverse offense following the departure of the greatest player in school history, tailback Ashton Jeanty, and with the return of starting quarterback Maddux Madsen. If the Broncos can replicate their dominance at the line of scrimmage, they should finish on top of the Mountain West (especially with UNLV undergoing a coaching change). And as the MW champions, the Broncos will have a great chance to return to the CFP.

15. Alabama

By Crimson Tide standards, the first season under Karen DeBoer was an abject failure (four losses, no playoff). The situation should improve in 2025, but by how much? DeBoer needs an elite quarterback, but is either Ty Simpson or Austin Mack the answer? The non-conference schedule features Florida State and Wisconsin, while the lineup of  conference opponents includes Georgia, Tennessee, LSU and South Carolina. We foresee at least three losses, again.

16. Arizona State

The Sun Devils likely will be the highest-ranked Big 12 team in many early forecasts and, perhaps, in the AP preseason poll in August. We don’t doubt that coach Kenny Dillingham’s formula can work on a regular basis in a conference loaded with opportunity and lacking blue-blood programs. But elevated expectations will change the internal dynamics for ASU. Reaching the top is easier than staying there.

17. Georgia Tech

We expect the Yellow Jackets to build on their 2024 success, when they won seven games and took Georgia to a bajillion overtimes. It’s difficult to find any fault with the way coach Brent Key has placed a physical style of play at the heart of the program, with quarterback Haynes King scheduled to return, the delivery of punishment should continue.

18. Iowa State

As long as Matt Campbell remains in charge in Ames, the Cyclones have a chance to contend in the Big 12. And when Campbell has a veteran quarterback, which will be the case next season with returnee Rocco Becht, the likelihood of a first-rate season increases exponentially.

19. Indiana

Curt Cignetti wasted no time raising the bar in Bloomington — perhaps to a level unreachable in his second season. Why the skepticism? Because the Hoosiers will have a target on their back and tougher opponents on their schedule with trips to Oregon and Penn State. Also, because the Hotline is not convinced transfer quarterback Fernando Mendoza (from Cal) can pick up exactly where Kurtis Rourke left off.

20. Florida State

Perhaps the greatest leap-of-faith within these rankings comes here, with the Seminoles. What’s next for a program that won 13 games in 2023 and two games in 2024? Our hunch is that with his job likely on the line, Mike Norvell’s desperation leads to major upgrades in talent, coaching and execution.

21. Michigan

We’re assuming the offense improves (better quarterback play) and the defense regresses (heavy losses to the NFL),  and those dynamics should essentially balance out. The end result? The Wolverines won’t look nearly as bad as they did early in the 2024 season or quite as good as they did at the end.

22. Utah

The Hotline gave serious consideration to slotting Utah somewhere in the mid-to-late teens but opted against after taking a broader look at the program. With so many new players and coaches, including quarterback Devon Dampier and offensive coordinator Jason Beck — both arrive from New Mexico — we see the distinct possibility of a modest start and strong finish.

23. SMU

The same challenges facing Arizona State and Indiana are present with the Mustangs, who must manage expectations and navigate an ACC schedule in which they will get each opponent’s best shot. If they reach the ACC championship again, all those millionaire donors should give Rhett Lashlee a lifetime contract.

24. Nebraska

We pegged the Cornhuskers as a sleeper team in 2024, leaning into Matt Rhule’s history of success in his second season. That outlook was overly optimistic — Rhule needed one more recruiting cycle to craft a lineup capable of supporting quarterback Dylan Raiola and thriving in the Big Ten.

25. South Carolina

The Gamecocks are a trendy pick to challenge for the SEC title after their strong 2024 season — and with the return of quarterback LaNorris Sellers, a young but high-level playmaker. And it’s precisely because of all the attention that we’re taking a bleaker view of South Carolina’s prospects.

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