Our Armed Forces Need Help
Dear Mr. Hegseth
Congratulations. The good news is that unless something extraordinary happens, you will be confirmed to the post of secretary of defense in the next week or two.
Today, our Air Force has 58 percent fewer active-duty fighter squadrons and 51 percent fewer bombers than during 1991’s Operation Desert Storm.
President Trump comes into office with a mandate to reverse the radical progressive ideology and actions that his predecessor took. You, in turn, have a significant mandate to reverse the wokeness and DEI ideologies that have reduced the lethality and readiness of the force enormously.
The bad news is that the average tenure of secretaries of defense is between 11 and 20 months. Only a very few last longer.
So how will you spend the next year or two? It’s entirely a question of priorities and those you must set yourself.
The entrenched Pentagon bureaucracies — military and civilian — will try to enmesh you in a month of “orientation” briefings. You can sit through a few, but not many. Set your own agenda which should focus on the things you and Mr. Trump want and need to do.
First and foremost, how quickly you or the president can set up a board of senior officers to vet and fire all of the generals and admirals who have bought into the “wokeness” nonsense that Biden inflicted on the force. That board should be set up as quickly as possible and begin to act immediately. You may have to fire a lot of other officers, but you can start with them.
Second, you will now be one of the most senior intelligence “consumers,” and you will have to gauge quickly how good the intel that’s coming from the CIA and the military intelligence agencies may be. It’s not a question of how well they satisfy your beliefs but now accurate the intel is. It may take all of your time in office, but reforming those agencies if they need it (and they do) — hopefully with the help of John Ratcliffe at CIA — must be a top priority.
Third, our deterrence strategy has failed. We can’t even deter the Houthis from targeting Israel and our ships in the Red Sea. Deterrence has to be restored, even at the price of other strategic goals. You will need to convince Mr. Trump of that.
Fourth, you’ll want to find out about our major weapon system programs, both those that are in production and in development. You may not be there long enough to answer big questions — such as whether the era of the aircraft carrier is over — but you will be able to influence these programs.
You and Marco Rubio will be in the most consequential jobs in the Trump administration. You will have more issues on your plate than you can imagine. Every top military and civilian person in the Pentagon will be demanding your attention to their pet rock. Avoid them like the plague they are.
You won’t be able to avoid meetings with your counterparts from allied nations or even their heads of state. NATO is a tough problem because it is made up of social welfare states in which defense spending is anathema. You can help President Trump by keeping the pressure on them to spend more on their own defense. Doing so will enable us to do better in helping defend them.
I don’t know the gent picked to be your deputy secretary, Stephen Feinberg, and I suspect you don’t either. Many better choices, people who had more familiarity with the Pentagon, the Hill, and the Pentagon’s bureaucracies were available but the president didn’t choose them.
Feinberg is a Wall Streeter from Cerberus Capital Management. The DEPSECDEF is more than just a key position. You will have to learn fast of how best to employ him.
You will have to pick a great number of political appointees to serious positions. You should immediately upon confirmation choose a team to fill those positions and get the nominations done fast. You can’t rely on the White House to pick these people.
You can rid the force of the wokeness crap and the people who adhere to it. By so doing, you will increase pride in the force. Recruitment improvements will necessarily follow because people who have served are now reluctant to recommend the armed services to their children and grandchildren.
When you get your first top secret briefings, you should follow the example of the late Donald Rumsfeld. Ask tough questions and demand answers. The briefers won’t like that but you can’t do a good job without those answers.
One force has to stand out. Yes, the forces need modernization. Yes, the Navy lacks enough ships (and the right kinds of ships) to take on China. The era of the aircraft carrier might be over, but you won’t be around long enough to convince the Navy.
Yes, we have fallen behind the Chinese in artificial intelligence and on drone technology (including underwater and aerial drones). And, yes, the Air Force faces the most dire situation of all.
As I have written previously, the Air Force is the indispensable service. Every major military operation — even a large effort at disaster relief — requires participation by several Air Force elements. That cannot be said of any other service.
The U.S. Air Force is now the oldest and smallest in terms of aircraft than at any time in its history. It is also less ready to fight.
Today, our Air Force has 58 percent fewer active-duty fighter squadrons and 51 percent fewer bombers than during 1991’s Operation Desert Storm. You cannot believe that today’s threats are not greater than those we faced in 1991.
The Navy, the Marines and the Army are in similar shape, but not as bad. You will have to assign priorities to them for modernization. And you should aim the planned supplemental appropriations bill for that purpose alone.
Senate Republicans are planning a major Pentagon supplemental appropriations bill for this spring. They will be peppering you with questions about what the military really needs and will then go ahead with whatever will produce more jobs in their states. You can fight this but you will have to compromise and likely more than you should. The price for those compromises should be spending that directly benefits the warfighter.
As this column has often reminded people, the lethality of the force and its readiness to fight should be the only concerns of a commander. You, as the top of the command totem pole, should do everything in your power to enhance those characteristics of the force. Everything else is secondary.
Are we spending too much on the F-35 which has a mission capability rate of between 60 and 70 percent? Should we be putting much of the F-35 money into the “Next Generation Air Defense” fighter system that will put our sixth-generation fighter in the air faster? Elon Musk, who has Mr. Trump’s ear, wants to do away with manned aircraft. He should be told — in a nice way to not offend his ego — to sit down and shut up.
Everyone on the Hill, in NATO, and all of our allies will be demanding your attention. SECDEF is the toughest job in town. You have to set priorities and lead. I wish you the best of luck.
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