Trump is back, and his eye is on Latin America
Donald Trump won November's election with massive support from Latino voters, a long-time constituency of the Democratic Party that now is migrating rightward. After the victory, Trump celebrated his triumph at Mar-a-Lago. In this traditional setting, something very untraditional happened. The first head of state with whom Trump partied was not a European or an Asian leader, but Argentine President Javier Milei.
And this was not the only surprise. Trump has also designated Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), son of Hispanic parents, as his next secretary of State, a milestone in U.S. history. Latin America is gaining greater relevance on the agenda of the most powerful nation in the world.
With a little bit of Nixon and a lot of Reagan, the madman theory and peace through strength, Trump is seeking to reposition the U.S. in the face of China's aggressive commercial advance in Latin America.
Like Nixon in the 1970s, Trump believes in the element of surprise to generate and spread fear, confusion and, most importantly, respect among his rivals. This position does not always follow the rules but reinvents them. A negotiator like Trump knows when to get up from the table and when to return to it on his own terms.
Meanwhile, Trump has not only been inspired by Reagan's call to make America great again, but also by his motto of peace through strength — of establishing military supremacy and power, not to generate a new war but to prevent it.
In Latin America, Trump will have a second opportunity to restore democracy in Venezuela. The regime wants to negotiate migrants and oil to remain in power, but they are wrong. The Trump team is clear that only the end of tyranny will reduce migration and accelerate the revitalization of the oil industry.
Trump has been categorical. He recognized Edmundo González as the legitimate president, avoided a bloodbath in Venezuela and reaffirmed his total support for the freedom fighters who face the tyrant of Miraflores. In this new round, Maduro is weaker, but Trump is stronger.
Sanctions and maximum pressure remain the order of the day for corrupt autocracies of the region. A zero-tolerance policy against the dictatorships of Cuba and Nicaragua has been declared. No shady deals of negotiations with human lives in exchange for softening sanctions.
Then there's the Panama Canal. “We bought it, we paid for it, we built it, and we intend to keep it” was a famous phrase by Reagan that helped catapult him to the presidency of the United States. In the end, he was respectful of the Torrijos Carter Agreement, but he renegotiated its terms in favor of the U.S. Trump's provocative strategy towards the Panama Canal could seek something similar to reduce China influence, obtain greater trade opportunities and strengthen U.S. geopolitical power.
China’s regime does not control the canal, but having greater presence in this region wouldn’t hurt its interest. The communist superpower and its “private companies” are already there. Let's not forget that China has a dangerous hold on telecommunications, the lithium and copper industries, ports and other critical infrastructure in Latin America.
Trump's key task with Mexico, his main commercial partner, includes guaranteeing greater support in safeguarding the border. No more blackmail or political favors for the Cuban dictatorship — those days are over.
Mexico cannot become China's Trojan horse. Trump has taken a stand and will not tolerate the flooding of products or parts of Chinese articles being manufactured in Mexico. Tariffs and other trade options remain on the table.
Also, faced with the growing fentanyl industry produced in Mexico and the lack of cooperation with the DEA, Trump threatens to designate the cartels as terrorist organizations. Some believe that perhaps it is just a strategy to get the Mexican government to stop protecting drug traffickers.
The incoming U.S. administration has already turned the tide of the status quo with Latin America. It is still too early to say whether China will reduce its influence in the Western Hemisphere, but at least the Trump administration will not make it easy to increase it.
America is back.
Arturo McFields is an exiled journalist, former ambassador to the OAS and former member of the Norwegian Peace Corps. He is an alumnus of the Security and Defense Seminar at the National Defense University.