What If We Took a Year Off From Kvetching About the Oscars?

For Angelenos, it has been two weeks of loss and upheaval. Communities destroyed, dozens of lives lost, countless more upended. Understandably — a word you should imagine written in bold and italic, size-72 font — all this devastation has bumped awards season way down Hollywood’s priority list. The Oscar nominations, originally scheduled for January 17, have been pushed back twice already. (They’re currently set to take place on Thursday, January 23.) This year’s nominee luncheon, as well as the accompanying class photo, has been canceled. The writers, producers, and cinematographers’ guilds all tabled their nomination announcements until this week, while the Critics Choice Awards are delayed until February.

So far, all indications are that the Academy will hold on to its March 2 date for the Oscar ceremony. If they do, how should they address the tragedy in their own backyard? On Instagram, Jean Smart called for canceling the Oscars and “donating the revenue they would have garnered to firefighters.” In THR, Steven Zeitchik suggested nominees bring someone affected by the fires as their plus-one. Jeff Sneider proposed turning the telecast into a charity telethon. I like some of these ideas better than others — it may be hard to donate money that no longer exists — but the universal impulse to use the occasion to lift up the community warms my heart.

More takes like these will arise in the weeks to come, and I imagine the Oscars will ultimately incorporate some sort of charity component into the ceremony, whatever form that takes. (THR reports that the Academy is aiming for a “dignified” telecast that would “raise funds for and celebrate fire relief efforts.”) When that happens, I hope those of us not in Los Angeles can resist the urge to slam them for not embracing whichever specific plan we personally think is best; it is the fear of such reactions that often keeps institutions paralyzed.

I also suspect that the next six weeks are going to see a more intense version of the usual psychodrama we witness this time every year: grumbling that awards ceremonies are pointless from people who would never watch them; kvetching about the telecast’s declining ratings that pretends this is a phenomenon specific to the Oscars rather than a universal trend; apocalyptic pronouncements about the future of movies. Personally, though, I’m gonna bow out of all that this year. I get enough performative self-flagellation from the Democrats, you know?

As Mark Harris notes, awards season is an intrinsic part of the Los Angeles economy, and keeping the major events in place will do more to help those in need than a statement-making cancellation ever could. So going forward, I’m going to keep making predictions the way this column was intended as we all wait to see how the industry uses its spotlight to do good. In the meantime, our friends at the Cut have put together a helpful guide to helping wildfire victims. My colleague Joe Reid has also chosen to shepherd one particular GoFundMe to completion. If you can’t stand the idea of celebrities getting golden statues while so many are suffering, feel free to bow out. For the rest of us, let’s hope this Oscar season provides a moment of distraction amid the darkness, the way the movies so often have.

Oscar Futures: Once More With Feeling

Every week between now and January 23, when the nominations for the Academy Awards are announced, Vulture will consult its crystal ball to determine the changing fortunes in this year’s Oscar race. In our “Oscar Futures” column, we’ll let you in on insider gossip, parse brand-new developments, and track industry buzz to figure out who’s up, who’s down, and who’s currently leading the race for a coveted Oscar nomination.

Best Picture

Up ⬆ September 5

In a comeback worthy of the Olympics, the faltering journalism drama made it into the Producers Guild’s nominations after being all but written off by pundits. (Even September 5’s biggest booster, THR’s Scott Feinberg, had dropped the film out of his top ten.) Though last year the Guild’s picks overlapped with Oscar’s ten for ten, it’s more common for one or two PGA nominees to drop out, so Tim Fehlbaum’s film shouldn’t book its ticket to the Dolby just yet. A gripping depiction of the Munich hostage crisis, September 5 has so far escaped any backlash over the way it handles our most hot-button political conflict, but if it makes it into Best Picture ahead of more heralded titles, that day may yet come.

Down ⬇ Nickel Boys

RaMell Ross’s literary adaptation was left off the Producers Guild lineup, and other precursors damned it with faint praise. Last week the DGA handed Ross a best-debut nomination rather than the real thing — never mind that he’s a previous Oscar nominee in Documentary — and on Thursday Jomo Fray’s inventive first-person photography was snubbed by the American Society of Cinematographers, who gave Nickel Boys a consolation-prize nom for their Spotlight award. Are Academy voters highbrow enough to save a groundbreaking film the guilds essentially passed over?

Current Predix

Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, A Real Pain, Sing Sing, The Substance, Wicked

Best Director

Up ⬆ Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

When a DGA nominee fails to crack the Oscar five, they’re often replaced by a European auteur. Fargeat is in pole position for that slot: Not only is she a newly minted BAFTA nominee, but her film also cracked the Producers Guild lineup, a huge win for such a wackadoodle movie. Jacques Audiard and Edward Berger are already supplying the Euro cred in this race, and you might wonder if three is a crowd. Recall, though, that Alfonso Cuarón, Yorgos Lanthimos, and Pawel Pawlikowski all got nominated in 2019, so I don’t think there can ever be too many international directors for this branch.

Even = James Mangold, A Complete Unknown

Mangold couldn’t follow up his DGA nom with a spot at BAFTA, where Fargeat and Denis Villeneuve filled out the fifth and sixth slots. No matter, because precursor voters made him feel their love. A Complete Unknown saw buckets of gains, including top nominations from BAFTA, the WGA, the PGA, even the American Society of Cinematographers. Guild voters think it’s something to behold, and it’s not over now, baby ’gold.

Current Predix

Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez; Sean Baker, Anora; Edward Berger, Conclave; Brady Corbet, The Brutalist; Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

Best Actor

Up ⬆ Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

Glancing at Stan’s awards-season C.V., he would appear a formidable contender: A week after winning a Golden Globe, he was nominated for Best Actor at the BAFTAs. Unfortunately, those honors did not come for the same performance, as the Globes and Gothams rewarded A Different Man while the Brits went for a different man (Donald Trump!). If you could combine the two into a single film — perhaps about a real-estate mogul who gets an operation to change his appearance but finds he’s still ugly inside — then Stan would be a done deal in this thin category. Since we can’t, he may be fated to be the odd man out.

Down ⬇ Daniel Craig, Queer

Given the precursors’ respective tastes, one might have expected SAG to snub Craig’s work in this arty romance while BAFTA nominated the Cheshire native. Instead it was the reverse, as the British academy blanked Queer entirely. So it goes for the weakest of the assumed Oscar five, who will have to hope Stan continues to split his support between two films.

Current Predix

Adrien Brody, The Brutalist; Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown; Daniel Craig, Queer; Colman Domingo, Sing Sing; Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

Best Actress

Up ⬆ Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths

The year’s most acclaimed performance scored the home-turf BAFTA nom Jean-Baptiste needed to stay in the race. I have her nabbing the final spot at the Oscars, but I can’t help worrying that the season’s 11th-hour vibe shift may hurt Jean-Baptiste most of all. How many Academy members catching up on titles they missed will be in the mood for a bleak film like Hard Truths?

Down ⬇ Nicole Kidman, Babygirl

After missing out first at SAG and now BAFTA, Kidman’s campaign feels like it’s hit a wall. Of the women on the Best Actress bubble, Jean-Baptiste and I’m Still Here’s Fernanda Torres should be able to count on support from international voters, and Pamela Anderson’s Last Showgirl comeback is playing well for Hollywood types. Babygirl may be in tune with the Zeitgeist, but its Oscar lane hasn’t materialized.

Current Predix

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked; Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez; Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths; Mikey Madison, Anora; Demi Moore, The Substance

Best Supporting Actor

Up ⬆ Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

In the past, movie stars who deigned to appear on TV gave their series an added jolt of prestige. Now the influence runs in the other direction. Like his former co-star Kieran Culkin, Strong is finding that his Succession accolades carry over to the Oscar race. His gravel-voiced Roy Cohn was recognized alongside Stan at BAFTA and has now been nominated by every major precursor. I thought the election result would doom The Apprentice’s chances, but the Trump biopic is demonstrating, er, strong support, and not just from schadenfreude-laden foreigners.

Down ⬇ Denzel Washington, Gladiator II

The most controversial streak in awards-season history continues: 44 years after his film debut, Denzel Washington still has never been nominated for a BAFTA. While the implications remain troubling, at least on this occasion the Brits have cover, as Washington was also snubbed by SAG last week. We once spoke of Denzel as a potential challenger for this trophy, but as Culkin has usurped all the buzz, the fading sequel failed to keep him afloat. That’s just politicsss.

Current Predix

Yura Borisov, Anora; Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain; Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown; Guy Pearce, The Brutalist; Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

Best Supporting Actress

Up ⬆ Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl

Lest you forget, besides changing the face of improvisational comedy, Curtis’s husband, Christopher Guest, also happens to be a hereditary peer in the British aristocracy. I’m not saying that’s why she was nominated for a BAFTA — they gave her a trophy for Trading Places before she became the Lady Haden-Guest — but it must be mentioned. Anyway, with SAG and BAFTA nods in her pocket, Curtis looks well on her way to another Oscar nomination. This may be baffling to the internet’s many Last Showgirl skeptics, but chalk it up to her indefatigable campaigning, as well as the Everything Everywhere All at Once afterglow.

Down ⬇ Margaret Qualley, The Substance

In a tragic tale of nepo-on-nepo violence, Qualley was the contender pushed out by Curtis at SAG and BAFTA. Still, with Demi Moore looking like a potential winner in Best Actress, there’s every chance she could ride in on Moore’s coattails. (Remember: They are one.) That might require elbowing aside someone like Isabella Rossellini … unless this race has room for three celebrity daughters?

Current Predix

Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl; Ariana Grande, Wicked; Felicity Jones, The Brutalist; Isabella Rossellini, Conclave; Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez