UFC 311 predictions
Islam Makhachev has a surprise opponent. Again.
For the second time in three fights, the UFC lightweight champion finds himself in an awkward situation as he sees a high-profile rematch fall through and a new challenge emerge that presents him with little to gain and everything to lose.
When it happened at UFC 294, Makhachev was supposed to meet Charles Oliveira for a second time, only for Oliveira to suffer a cut during fight week that ruled him out of the contest. Then-featherweight king Alexander Volkanovski stepped up on little notice for his own shot at revenge against Makhachev, but was dismissed emphatically by a Makhachev head kick. So in a roundabout way, that one worked out for the lightweight champ, since it produced one of the best highlights of his career.
For UFC 311, Makhachev was supposed to headline against Arman Tsarukyan, a dangerous challenger that Makhachev defeated when Tsarukyan made his UFC debut over five years ago. Instead, a back injury forced Tsarukyan out of the contest, resulting in Renato Moicano being promoted from a bout with Beneil Dariush to take his place. Can Makhachev again make magic happen in unexpected circumstances?
Or is “Money Moicano” about to become “Millions Moicano?”
In the co-main event, bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili faces a daunting task in the undefeated Umar Nurmagomedov. Dvalishvili clawed his way to the title and currently rides an 11-fight win streak, but Nurmagomedov is strongly favored to end Dvalishvili’s reign before it has properly begun.
Also on the main card, Jiri Prochazka and Jamahal Hill meet in a bout that could earn the winner a light heavyweight title shot, heavyweights Jailton Almeida and Serghei Spivac look for a fast finish, and Kevin Holland takes on former ONE two-division champion Reinier de Ridder.
What: UFC 311
Where: Intuit Dome in Inglewood, Calif.
When: Saturday, Jan. 18. The four-fight early preliminary card begins at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+, Disney+, and FX, followed by a four-fight preliminary card airing on those same platforms and ESPNews at 8 p.m. ET. The five-fight main card begins at 10 p.m. ET exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings and Pound-for-Pound Rankings)
Islam Makhachev (1, P4P-1) vs. Renato Moicano (12)
If you’re giving Renato Moicano a chance here, that requires some selective memory. Because the last time Moicano took a fight on short notice against a championship-caliber lightweight, it was Rafael dos Anjos, and he got completely destroyed.
True, this is hardly the same situation. When that happened to Moicano at UFC 272, he took the bout on four days’ notice as a replacement and had zero preparation. This time, Moicano was already scheduled to fight elsewhere on the main card, so even though he hasn’t been preparing for Islam Makhachev specifically, he’s at least in top fighting form.
I can’t escape the comparison though, especially with Makhachev also likely going to his wrestling early and often to stifle Moicano. Makhachev is simply a beast in all aspects, and not just offensively. He rarely gets hit clean (which is why the success Dustin Poirier had against him was so compelling) and when it comes to grappling, forget it, there’s no way you’re making him tap when there’s money (pardon the pun) on the line. Even if Moicano had a year to prepare for Makhachev, I wouldn’t like his chances of solving this puzzle.
Makhachev controls the action early, immediately sapping Moicano’s confidence. Then he wins the fight anyway he wants to before the championship rounds are necessary.
Pick: Makhachev
Merab Dvalishvili (1, P4P-9) vs. Umar Nurmagomedov (2)
Umar Nurmagomedov has the advantage in almost every department over Merab Dvalishvili. I favor Nurmagomedov’s wrestling slightly and his striking considerably, the standup especially because of the size he has on the champion. I like him to beat Dvalishvili on the ground and I also expect him to give him headaches in the clinch.
Easy win, right? Nothing is easy for any opponent when they have to deal with Dvalishvili’s cardio and toughness. It’s one thing to check off a bunch of boxes in Nurmagomedov’s favor when you’re looking at this on paper; it’s another for them to actually, you know, fight. Being tough as f*ck and a non-stop—ahem—“Machine” once that bell rings, that’s not a bad strategy for winning decisions if you haven’t heard.
There’s simply no way to predict how Nurmagomedov will fare against Dvalishvili if this goes into deep waters. Dvalishvili is damn-near impossible to finish (his submission loss to Ricky Simon remains one of the most bizarre endings I’ve seen) and his pace cannot be matched. Even though Nurmagomedov passed his five-round test against Cory Sandhagen with flying colors, that’s just not a comparable matchup. Dvalishvili will be on Nurmagomedov from second one and it’s on the challenger to keep up.
I’ve been touting Nurmagomedov as the bantamweight to beat for years and now is not the time to be jumping off the bandwagon. A Dvalishvili decision win won’t surprise anyone, especially when you consider the added bulletin board material he’ll surely have heading into this one as a sizable underdog. He’s proven the doubters wrong over and over again, but he’s just up against a superior force this time.
Nurmagomedov by decision. And new.
Pick: Nurmagomedov
Jiri Prochazka (3) vs. Jamahal Hill (6)
Jamahal Hill couldn’t have asked for a better opponent to keep his championship hopes alive. He also couldn’t have asked for a worse one, probably.
Jiri Prochazka is as dangerous as any fighter on the UFC roster, with knockout power in every limb and a free-flowing style that’s impossible to train for. His unpredictable nature has worked against him in the past though as he can venture into danger with his hands low and his chin just asking to eat a power shot. Calamity soon follows, either for him or his opponent. It’s why we love the big Czech.
He’s in tough against Hill, an educated striker with legit knockout power. If Prochazka plays too many games on the feet, Hill will figure him out and put him away. The first couple of minutes of Round 1 should make for a fascinating study, as we wait and see who takes the first risk and, more importantly, who can do so effectively.
It’s on Prochazka to disrupt whatever game plan Hill is entering with, because if Hill controls the range early, he could put on a showcase performance. Disruption is the name of Prochazka’s game, though, so look for him to beat Hill to the punch, leading to a more chaotic second round that tilts ever so slightly in Prochazka’s favor until he can land a fight-ending strike.
Pick: Prochazka
Jailton Almeida (8) vs. Serghei Spivac (9)
Jailton Almeida, this is your year.
OK, I can’t say with confidence that Almeida makes his way to a title shot in 2025—though I’ve long believed his grappling alone is enough to get him there—but I am picking him to get his campaign off to a great start with a lopsided win over Serghei Spivac.
Credit to Spivac for grinding—and let’s be honest, given that he only turns 30 next week, outlasting—his way to a top-10 ranking as he struggled out of the UFC gate at first. He’s since shown a deft finishing touch, one that just hasn’t materialized against the elite of the division. That’s the tier I put Almeida in and given Spivac’s questionable defensive skills, I don’t expect to see any reason to change that evaluation Saturday night.
Almeida finds a takedown early, puts that magical jiu-jitsu to work, and becomes the first fighter to submit Spivac.
Pick: Almeida
Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder
Didn’t understand this matchup when it was made, don’t understand it now. Well, except for the fact that it’s Kevin Holland and when you send him a contract, he signs it, no questions asked. An admirable mindset, but not one that’s conducive to keeping one’s record respectable.
You can’t begrudge Holland for making the most of his athletic prime and cashing as many checks as possible, something he’s done with aplomb throughout his UFC career. The highs have been pretty high, but there have been forgettable lows and he’s in a rough slump right now. He’s lost three of his last four and even if you want to include his competitive performances against Michael Page and Jack Della Maddalena, those happened at welterweight, where he should be fighting, but isn’t.
Making matters even more confusing is that not only is Holland fighting at middleweight, he’s facing down another middleweight with a strong grappling game just three months after getting mauled by Roman Dolidze. It’s one thing to be a gamer, it’s another thing to be silly with your matchups. This is silly.
Reinier de Ridder is bigger, knows his way around a takedown, and loves to hunt for submissions. That’s a recipe for disaster for Holland if there is one. Then again, every time de Ridder comes forward with his wonky standup, it could spell disaster for him, because one burst of sustained offense from Holland could end with de Ridder eating canvas.
I’m still confident de Ridder forces the issue and gets this to the ground where he won’t have much trouble finding a finish.
Pick: De Ridder
Preliminaries
Payton Talbott def. Raoni Barcelos
Bogdan Guskov (T15) def. Billy Elekana
Grant Dawson def. Diego Ferreira
Azamat Bekoev def. Zachary Reese
Karol Rosa (10) def. Ailin Perez (15)
Rinya Nakamura def. Muin Gafurov