If TikTok is banned in the U.S., this is what it will look like for everyone else

In just a matter of days, the lights will switch off on the app that has almost dominated, and certainly defined, the United States in the last five years. TikTok — the second most downloaded app in the country in 2024, and with 170 million active American users — is going to shut down in the U.S. following a law passed last year that requires Bytedance, TikTok’s parent company, to either sell the app to a U.S. company or shut down operations. 

Despite several attempts to stall this, hopes of saving TikTok for American users is fast diminishing — and as they clamour to bid their final farewells on our For You Pages (FYPs), something we should be asking ourselves is: will this affect those of us living outside the U.S.?

From a tech standpoint, non-U.S. residents are totally unharmed; no lights are turning off for us, and it will feel like business as normal. But it is likely not a technological interruption we should be worried about. You will be far more affected by the sudden disappearance of new content from American users and creators if they have played an important part in your TikTok experience. If you speak English, it is almost certain that they have done, and as a content creator myself, I see it as a mass extinction event of Anglophone creativity and information. But before I bring up my personal theories, I’ll tell you what other people I trust have said first. 

Chris Stokel-Walker, journalist and author of TikTok Boom: China's Dynamite App and the Superpower Race for Social Media, believes it is worrying for non-U.S. users because of the precedent it sets. "Not only do we lose 170 million people posting on the app," he said, "but it demonstrates that the U.S. remains deeply uncomfortable with anyone but a Silicon Valley tech company dominating the social media space."

It is true that the ban, running under the legislation titled "Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act," has run on the grounds that the app poses "a national-security threat of immense depth and scale," according to the U.S. Justice Department. 

When President Donald Trump first tried to ban it in 2020 with an executive order (that was blocked by a judge and dropped), the order had said "this data collection threatens to allow the Chinese Communist Party access to Americans’ personal and proprietary information − potentially allowing China to track the locations of Federal employees and contractors, build dossiers of personal information for blackmail, and conduct corporate espionage.”

But these fears have never quite been backed up. "There hasn’t been any concrete evidence presented by the U.S. government that the app is a national security risk at the level they claim," Stokel-Walker said. Many believe it is far more likely that many in the U.S. simply hated the taste of another country’s app rivalling Silicon Valley. Meta and Google, who stand to benefit immensely from the app being banned because it will bring attention and ad money to its TikTok rivals Reels and Shorts, spent millions lobbying government specifically about this legislation.

So, it isn’t good for any of us who like a diversified social media ecosystem that is decentralised from America, and from the overreach of big tech manipulation under Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk; theoretically, this legislation could affect us any time a good app is developed in a country the U.S. decides is an adversary. But for a lot of us, the direct and immediate impact will be cultural.

V Spehar, the American journalist and content creator known as @underthedesknews, told Mashable that “the American-based TikTok provides a lot of new music, trending sounds, access to the American music library. You’ll have an end to American first-person reporting and news the way you were used to.”

The ban, which is believed to affect any Bytedance tool, would also ultimately see an end to the Bytedance-owned editing tool Capcut in the U.S., which has turned many video novices to internet stars with its simple interface. Spehar thinks that this means American users will struggle to pivot to other platforms. "Even someone with millions of followers is used to using that," they said. "The reason why this is so catastrophic is that if the Washington Post closes, you can just pick up the New York Times. Users are losing all the editing tools that they rely on. There’ll be a big blackout because a new tool is such a learning curve."

From a content creator perspective, lots of us stand to lose a considerable amount of engagement. Depending on the kind of content I make, recent videos have had anything between a 5 percent and a 20 percent watch rate from the United States. Where will those views suddenly go now; will my content be seen by more viewers in other countries, or will its reach simply be cut, sorn off like a tree branch?

Steph Black, who is based in London and creates TikTok content about her work as an archeologist, wonders if the ban will generate more opportunities for non-U.S. content creators. "I do wonder if U.S. brands will completely do away with advertising on TikTok, or if they will be more interested in working with non-U.S. creators to sell on TikTok," she said. She can also remember how TikTok features would be rolled out first in the U.S. in the past before in Europe, such as the opportunity to get monetised. "I’d like to see more opportunities for non-U.S. creators."

But for creators with a big U.S. following — and brand partnerships — opportunities may dry up. Content creator Max Klymenko has a third of his audience on TikTok in the U.S. "The fact I won’t be able to reach them on TikTok means we have to find each other on other platforms," he said. "It’s easy to say you just go to other platforms — but modern social media doesn’t work like this. It’s feed-based. Whoever the creators you love are, they go on your feed, and they’re going to be the ones you watch."

More widely, he believes that YouTube Shorts will benefit from an uptick in activity, as it did in India following the TikTok ban there. "I think there is a narrative that it doesn’t matter for us, what’s the big deal, the world doesn’t revolve around the USA. I think it will matter a bunch. The U.S. is the market with, historically, a lot of content creation innovation. Some of the top creators in the world are American. It’s a huge market and community to use."

"Me, I work with some American brands. I think there will be concerns around the ability of foreign creators to reach an American audience. It’s no secret they’re one of the highest paying with big consumer purchasing power. I think the impact on non-American creators and users is actually going to be pretty big. I think it will change the platform.” 

Whether you are a user or a creator, it’s likely that a major part of your content experience on TikTok will change. For one thing, there won’t be another Renegade dance, girl dinner innovation, or Wes Anderson trend for a while; the vast majority of trends, neologisms, and content styles we consume and regenerate have all been gifted to us by American content creators. As the TikTok ban begins, the first thing we will lose isn’t so much content, but connection.

"I have seen more of the world through TikTok than Americans ever get to see," Spehar said wistfully. “And I’ve made relationships that I never would have been able to do through YouTube and Instagram algorithms. I’m going to miss a lot of those people. I pray we’ll be back.”