National championship betting: Does fortune favor Ohio State as the favorite?

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COLUMBUS, Ohio (WCMH) -- Legal sports gambling has been in Ohio for a little over two years, but for the first time, you can bet on the Buckeyes in a national championship game.

Ohio State and Notre Dame will face off Monday in Atlanta at 7:30 p.m. to conclude the inaugural 12-team playoff. Sportsbooks don't think this game will be particularly close, with the Buckeyes favored by more than a touchdown.

Does recent history favor Ohio State to win, potentially in a rout? Let's dive into betting trends for the national title game and offer a prediction for Monday.

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How favorites have done in national title game

Ohio State is currently an 8½-point favorite to beat Notre Dame and win its ninth national championship. While the playoff era is entering a new phase, the past decade with a four-team format mostly produced lopsided title games.

Here is how favorites have done in each playoff national championship game and whether they covered the spread:

• 2023: Michigan (5½) - Won by 21
• 2022: Georgia (13½) - Won by 58
• 2021: Georgia (3½) - Won by 15
• 2020: Alabama (9½) - Won by 28
• 2019: LSU (4½) - Won by 17
• 2018: Alabama (5) - Lost by 28
• 2017: Alabama (3) - Won by 3
• 2016: Alabama (6½) - Lost by 4
• 2015: Alabama (6½) - Won by 5
• 2014: Oregon (6) - Lost by 22

In the 10 previous playoff finals, the favorite is 7-3 and has covered the spread on five occasions. Those times favorites have covered have been in the last five championship games so the trend points favorably towards the Buckeyes winning comfortably.

Additionally, the playoff title games have an average margin of victory of 20.1 points, with the last close contest coming in the 2017 season when Alabama beat Georgia by three in overtime.

Ohio State as a favorite

This is the first time Ohio State has been favored in a national championship game since 2006, when it was a 7-point favorite against Florida and lost by 27. That scary mark for Buckeyes fans is coupled with the fact the team is 1-3 in its last four national title games.

But Ohio State fans' confidence can be built back up knowing the team is 7-3 in its last ten postseason games as a favorite, including six wins in the last seven games. The Buckeyes have not been favored by this many points in a postseason game since 2017, when they beat USC in the Cotton Bowl 24-7 as a 9½-point favorite.

Discounting last season's Cotton Bowl, when Ohio State started its third-string quarterback and lost to Missouri, the most recent postseason loss as the favorite came in 2016, when the team lost 31-0 to Clemson in a playoff semifinal at the Fiesta Bowl.

Notre Dame as an underdog

Fighting Irish fans will hope coach Marcus Freeman's team can curve the recent pattern of underdogs severely underperforming in national championship games. Notre Dame does have one thing going for it: It won the Orange Bowl as an underdog.

Last week's 27-24 win over Penn State marked the first time in a decade the Fighting Irish won a postseason game as an underdog. Notre Dame is 4-6 in its last 10 postseason games as an underdog, but Ohio State can be confident with the Irish's history of rarely winning when the spread is sizable.

Since 2000, Notre Dame has been an eight-point or higher underdog in five postseason games and lost each time. But the Irish covered the spread in their two previous meetings with Ohio State, in 2022 and 2023.

Prediction

The first 12-team playoff has offered almost no shocking results, with favorites going 9-1. Favorites have covered in all but one of those victories. The data points toward the Buckeyes winning and covering, but there is one main reason I am taking the Buckeyes to cover.

Looking at the Cotton Bowl, Ohio State's offense was held back multiple times by penalties. Without those, the discussion of the Buckeyes' Cotton Bowl win would be more focused on another superb offensive performance.

If the Buckeyes start fast and iron out the offensive penalties, I don't see how they don't beat Notre Dame by a comfortable margin. The Fighting Irish's defense poses a test, but it hasn't faced any receivers of the caliber of Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka.

Score prediction: Ohio State 34, Notre Dame 13