The cheat sheet: Lions will win but covering the spread is a tough ask
TEXANS at CHIEFS
Time: 3:30 p.m. Saturday, ABC 7, ESPN.
Line: Chiefs by 8½. Total: 41½.
Records (overall/ATS): Texans 11-7/8-8-2; Chiefs 15-2/8-9.
Outlook: Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs arguably were more vulnerable this season than last year’s 11-6 team — Mahomes had career lows in touchdowns, yards per game and yards per attempt. But their uncanny resilience was better — 11-0 in one-score games en route to 15-2. Matching last year’s run to the Super Bowl could be problematic, but Mahomes is the ultimate trump card until he isn’t.
Pick: Chiefs 24, Texans 14.
COMMANDERS at LIONS
Time: 7 p.m. Saturday, Fox 32.
Line: Lions by 10. Total: 56.
Records (overall/ATS): Lions 15-2/12-5; Commanders 11-7/11-7.
Outlook: The Lions’ defense rose to the occasion and turned Sam Darnold into a pumpkin in a 31-9 rout in Week 18, but Commanders rookie QB Jayden Daniels is an X-factor after an impressive season where no moment seemed too big for him, including the 23-20 wild-card win over the host Bucs. The Lions are on a mission and get RB David Montgomery back, but Daniels & Co. could be a tough out.
Pick: Lions 31, Commanders 23.
RAMS at EAGLES
Time: 2 p.m. Sunday, NBC 5.
Line: Eagles by 6. Total: 44.
Records (overall/ATS): Rams 11-7/10-8; Eagles 14-3/12-6.
Outlook: Jalen Hurts was good enough (131 yards, two TDs, no INTs) in a 22-10 win vs. the Packers in the wild-card game, but he’ll have to find another gear eventually, if not here against a Rams first-team defense that has allowed 6, 9, 9 and 9 points in its last four games. Eagles won 37-20 at SoFi Stadium on Nov. 24, but the Rams are 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS with Matthew Stafford starting since then.
Pick: Eagles 20, Rams 13.
RAVENS at BILLS
Time: 5:30 p.m. Sunday, CBS 2.
Line: Ravens by 1. Total: 51½.
Records (overall/ATS): Ravens 13-5/11-6-1; Bills 14-4/11-7.
Outlook: Scintillating matchup of the two leading MVP contenders — Ravens QB Lamar Jackson and Bills QB Josh Allen — possibly for the opportunity to finally beat Mahomes in the playoffs. The Bills dominated the physical battle in a 31-7 victory against the Broncos but aren’t likely to push around the Ravens, who led the NFL in rushing defense (80.1 yards per game, 3.6 yards per carry).
Pick: Ravens 23, Bills 20 (OT).