Ceasefire shorts on Polymarket root for Israel-Hamas deal collapse—to make a few hundred bucks
As Israel and Hamas edge closer to a ceasefire agreement in the 15-month conflict, bettors poured millions of dollars into the online prediction site Polymarket, hoping to profit off the signature—or collapse—of a potential peace agreement.
Negotiations between the two sides first picked up last weekend, with news breaking yesterday that the two sides agreed to a 42-day pause in the war, along with the exchange of hostages held by Hamas for Palestinian prisoners detained by Israel.
Although Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stalled the process on Thursday, alleging Hamas caused “a last-minute crisis,” his government’s cabinet is set to vote on the deal tomorrow.
Bettors looking to make a quick buck jumped on the evolving news. Users on the online betting platform Polymarket placed more than $4.1 million in wagers on an official Israel-Hamas ceasefire by Jan. 31st, up from $1.3 million at the beginning of this week.
As of Thursday afternoon, traders on Polymarket can purchase a “Yes” share for 93 cents, implying a 93% chance of a ceasefire by the end of the month, down slightly from a high of 99% yesterday.
Traders holding “No” bets expressed disbelief in the Polymarket comments section and an affiliated Discord server.
“I'm telling you, this shit show looks very sus,” one bettor wrote on Discord. “I just cant explain how and why they ‘signed’ it.”
Another trader, whose Polymarket profile shows they bet $965 against a ceasefire, pleaded with their fellow traders to buy low: “Time to buy more no, this ceasefire wont happen.”
“No” shares traded as high as 75 cents before the odds of a ceasefire skyrocketed over the weekend, meaning bettors who placed large “No” wagers as recently as last week stand to lose hundreds or even thousands of dollars.
The largest “No” holder is down nearly $46,000.
Despite the devastating human costs of the conflict, some “No” bettors cheered this morning over what appeared to be a delay in the agreement.
“what a nice suprise i wake up to,” one user holding more than 3,000 shares wrote.
“LMAO LFG,” another said.
But other bettors who look likely to lose cash were able to put their losses in perspective. Since Hamas militants killed more than 1,200 people in Israel and took 250 hostage in its attacks on Oct. 7, 2023, Israel’s offensive in Gaza killed more than 46,600 people, per the Gaza Health Ministry.
“This is such an emotional roller coaster for both Palestinian people and Israeli people,” one “No” holder wrote. “Thoughts and prayers for all the innocent good people caught in this madness.”
“Hopefully the peace will last,” another trader wrote. “im happy to lose the little money i put into this.”
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