‘Emilia Pérez’ predicted to lead Oscar nominations with 11, followed by ‘The Brutalist’ at 10

When the 2025 Oscars nominations are announced on Jan. 23 at 5:30 a.m. PT, expect Emilia Pérez to be on top.

According to Gold Derby predictions, the Netflix musical dramedy is poised to receive 11 bids — more than any other contender — including Best Director (Jacques Audiard), Best Actress (Karla Sofía Gascón), and Best Supporting Actress (Zoe Saldaña). That would be two fewer than last year’s nominations leader Oppenheimer at 13, but on par with 2022’s Everything Everywhere All at Once at 11 — both of which won Best Picture.

Close behind with 10 forecasted noms is A24’s The Brutalist, starring Best Actor frontrunner Adrien Brody as a Holocaust survivor who tries to live out the American Dream in the 1940s and 1950s. Expect nominations for Best Director (Brady Corbet), Best Supporting Actress (Felicity Jones), and Best Supporting Actor (Guy Pearce), per Gold Derby odds.

Focus Features’ Conclave, which depicts the intrigue inside the Vatican following the death of the pope, is next in line with nine expected bids, including Best Director (Edward Berger), Best Actor (Ralph Fiennes), and Best Supporting Actress (Isabella Rossellini).

And then there’s Universal Pictures’ Wicked, the big-budget adaptation of the popular Broadway stage musical. Even though filmmaker Jon M. Chu is predicted to be snubbed at the Oscars for Best Director, look for his buzzed-about co-leads Cynthia Erivo (Best Actress) and Ariana Grande (Best Supporting Actress) to be among the movie’s eight mentions.

Other contenders expected to receive notable tallies: Dune: Part Two with seven; Anora and The Substance with six; A Complete Unknown and Gladiator II with five; and Sing Sing with four.

Gold Derby’s predictions are based on the combined forecasts of experts from major media outlets, editors who cover awards year-round for this website, top 24 users who had the best accuracy scores last year, and the mass of users who make up our biggest predictions bloc.

The Gold Derby forum posters have been vigorously debating the topic of which movie(s) will receive the most 2025 Oscar nominations. Babypook suspects that Dune: Part Two could be the ultimate leader based on “the number of tech nods it gets” — remember, Dune: Part One won six Oscars from 10 noms at the 2022 ceremony. ObjectiveAnalysis reminds everyone, “Like it or not,” Emilia Pérez has an upper hand because it “can get two song nominations.” And commenters like Barbra Please and Jesus Alonso believe Selena Gomez might be a stealth supporting actress nominee for Emilia Pérez, which would actually increase it to 12 total bids.

Here are Gold Derby’s Oscar predictions by film:

11 PREDICTED NOMINATIONS

Emilia Pérez
Best Picture
Best Director (Jacques Audiard)
Best Actress (Karla Sofía Gascón)
Best Supporting Actress (Zoe Saldaña)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Film Editing
Best Score
Best Song (“El Mal”)
Best Song (“Mi Camino”)
Best Sound
Best International Film

10 PREDICTED NOMINATIONS

The Brutalist
Best Picture
Best Director (Brady Corbet)
Best Actor (Adrien Brody)
Best Supporting Actress (Felicity Jones)
Best Supporting Actor (Guy Pearce)
Best Original Screenplay
Best Cinematography
Best Film Editing
Best Production Design
Best Score

9 PREDICTED NOMINATIONS

Conclave
Best Picture
Best Director (Edward Berger)
Best Actor (Ralph Fiennes)
Best Supporting Actress (Isabella Rossellini)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Cinematography
Best Film Editing
Best Production Design
Best Score

8 PREDICTED NOMINATIONS

Wicked
Best Picture
Best Actress (Cynthia Erivo)
Best Supporting Actress (Ariana Grande)
Best Costume Design
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Best Production Design
Best Sound
Best Visual Effects

7 PREDICTED NOMINATIONS

Dune: Part Two
Best Picture
Best Cinematography
Best Costume Design
Best Film Editing
Best Production Design
Best Sound
Best Visual Effects

6 PREDICTED NOMINATIONS

Anora
Best Picture
Best Director (Sean Baker)
Best Actress (Mikey Madison)
Best Supporting Actor (Yura Borisov)
Best Original Screenplay
Best Film Editing

The Substance
Best Picture
Best Director (Coralie Fargeat)
Best Actress (Demi Moore)
Best Supporting Actress (Margaret Qualley)
Best Original Screenplay
Best Makeup & Hairstyling

5 PREDICTED NOMINATIONS

A Complete Unknown
Best Picture
Best Actor (Timothée Chalamet)
Best Supporting Actor (Edward Norton)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Sound

Gladiator II
Best Supporting Actor (Denzel Washington)
Best Costume Design
Best Production Design
Best Sound
Best Visual Effects

4 PREDICTED NOMINATIONS

Sing Sing
Best Picture
Best Actor (Colman Domingo)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Song (“Like a Bird”)

3 PREDICTED NOMINATIONS

A Real Pain
Best Picture
Best Supporting Actor (Kieran Culkin)
Best Original Screenplay

Nosferatu
Best Cinematography
Best Costume Design
Best Makeup & Hairstyling

The Wild Robot
Best Score
Best Song (“Kiss the Sky”)
Best Animated Feature

2 PREDICTED NOMINATIONS

Flow
Best Animated Feature
Best International Film

I’m Still Here
Best Actress (Fernanda Torres)
Best International Film

Nickel Boys
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Cinematography

1 PREDICTED NOMINATION

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Better Man
Best Visual Effects

Challengers
Best Score

Dahomey
Best Documentary Feature

Daughters
Best Documentary Feature

A Different Man
Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Hard Truths
Best Original Screenplay

Inside Out 2
Best Animated Feature

Kneecap
Best International Film

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Best Visual Effects

Maria
Best Costume Design

Memoir of a Snail
Best Animated Feature

No Other Land
Best Documentary Feature

The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Best International Film

The Six Triple Eight
Best Song (“The Journey”)

Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
Best Documentary Feature

Sugarcane
Best Documentary Feature

Queer
Best Actor (Daniel Craig)

Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
Best Animated Feature

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