Confused about the TikTok ban? You should be. Here's what we know.

• TikTok faces a shutdown in the US on Sunday.
• Or maybe it won't?
• There's lots of confusing and contradictory information out there. Here's what we know.

TikTok is shutting down in the US on Sunday.

Or maybe TikTok won't get shut down because either the Supreme Court, or Joe Biden, or Donald Trump will save it before then.

Or maybe TikTok will get shut down on Sunday, and then Donald Trump will restart it a day or two later.

Confused? Me too. It's possible things will get easier to understand in the near future. They could also remain opaque for some time.

But let's try to sort out where things stand right now — again, with the caveat that this could all change soon.

The law and TikTok

The one thing we know for sure: Last year, Congress passed a bill, signed into law by Joe Biden, that required ByteDance, the Chinese company that owns TikTok, to sell its US operations to a non-Chinese owner. The deadline for that transaction is this coming Sunday, January 19.

Everything after that is at least somewhat fuzzy.

For instance: While the intent of the law is to force ByteDance to sell US TikTok or shut it down, it's not entirely clear what would happen if the law goes into effect.

The law requires app stores like the ones run by Apple and Google to stop distributing TikTok, but that doesn't mean TikTok would disappear from your phone. The law also prohibits internet companies from maintaining or updating the app. But it's unclear whether that means TikTok would immediately fall apart, or if it could limp along in some crippled manner.

But last week an attorney for TikTok told the Supreme Court that the service would go "dark" in the US on Sunday if the law stays in place. Subsequent press reports say that TikTok plans to simply shut down the service itself on Sunday, hoping that it will create political pressure. The Information reports that TikTok plans on sending users who open the app to a website with information about the ban.

The courts and TikTok

TikTok has spent months trying unsuccessfully to get the law overturned, arguing that it violates the First Amendment. TikTok got a last-ditch hearing before the US Supreme Court last week, but the justices seemed skeptical of its arguments. We're still waiting on a ruling.

The possible TikTok loophole

The TikTok sell-or-ban law does offer a theoretical reprieve for the app. It says that prior to the Sunday deadline, the president can grant a 90-day extension if there is "significant progress" in place to transfer ownership of US TikTok, including "relevant binding agreements" to make that happen.

But so far, TikTok and its owner have shown no public interest in a sale, and there are no reports that a non-Chinese buyer has a plan in place, let alone a deal.

It's also worth noting that no Big Tech company with the resources to buy and run a company the size of TikTok has shown any interest — in public — to take it on. The only plausible buyer mentioned to date is Elon Musk — Trump's new ally — but that only came up in recent days, via reports that suggested it was a last-minute brainstorm from Chinese officials in Beijing. Musk has remained uncharacteristically mute about the scenario.

The TikTok possible workarounds

This is where the information is by far the fuzziest, and often contradictory.

For instance: Donald Trump, who will become president on Monday, had previously tried to push through his own TikTok ban-or-sale effort during his first term in office. But last year, Trump said he thought TikTok should stay in the US — and he's been even more enthusiastic about the app following his reelection.

Last month, Trump's attorneys asked the Supreme Court to push back the January 19 deadline so he could work on the deal once he becomes president again. And Trump has invited TikTok CEO Shou Chew to attend his inauguration, a source familiar with the matter told BI. He's been offered a prime seat for the event — on the dais alongside other important figures, including Mark Zuckerberg and Jeff Bezos,

Various news reports and analysts have talked about a scenario where Trump brokers a deal between ByteDance and a buyer once he's in office. The law appears to allow for that while keeping the restrictions on TikTok in place until a deal is done.

Under normal circumstances, it would take many days, weeks, or even months to get a complicated deal worth tens of billions of dollars executed. Which would mean TikTok would stay dark, or at least crippled in some way, for some time. But perhaps Trump thinks he can get something down in record time.

An alternate scenario you may have read about involves Trump simply overturning the ban via an executive order — a mechanism he has already said he intends to use to reverse other moves Joe Biden made in office.

But the whole point of a law — again, passed by both houses of Congress and signed by the president — is that it's a law. And it's supposed to be hard to change or modify a law unless the courts weigh in or unless Congress amends it. So, it's very unclear whether an executive order would suffice.

Another scenario recently floated would be that Trump simply tells Pam Bondi, his candidate to become attorney general, not to enforce the law — an extraordinary step. Asked about that prospect in her confirmation hearing, Bondi declined to comment. It's also worth considering whether the likes of Apple and Google would follow Trump's theoretical command to ignore the law while it was still on the books.

One last bit of confusion: Members of outgoing President Joe Biden's team, who have been quiet about the looming deadline for weeks, are now trying to figure out a solution themselves, NBC reported Wednesday. "Americans shouldn't expect to see TikTok suddenly banned on Sunday," an anonymous administration official told NBC — without providing any possible solutions themselves.

But on Thursday, Bloomberg reported that Biden doesn't plan on intervening, and that his administration expects Trump's administration to deal with the problem.

At this point, the only thing we can really tell you with any certainty is that we'll know at least a bit more in the next few days.