These 3 stocks would be the big winners if TikTok is banned in the US
TikTok; BI
- Reports say TikTok is preparing to remove itself from US app stores on Sunday as a ban looms.
- Wall Street sees Meta, Snap, and Alphabet as the biggest winners of a TikTok ban.
- Analysts also point to upside for platforms with increasingly competitive ad businesses like Pinterest and Reddit.
TikTok could be gone from US app stores as soon as Sunday amid a looming ban, leaving users scrambling for alternatives.
If TikTok does indeed go away in the US, there are three stocks that are poised for gains in its absence, Wall Street analysts said this week.
The magnitude of the gains will depend on how effective these companies are at winning screen time from TikTok users and converting that into fresh ad dollars, analysts at Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank said.
Here are the stocks likely to reap the biggest rewards in the event TikTok is banned in the US.
Meta Platforms
Meta has emerged as a likely winner, with analysts at Morgan Stanley calling it the biggest beneficiary of a ban.
For every 10% of time TikTok's US users divert toward Meta's platforms, the company could add as much as $0.60 to earnings-per-share, for a $30 EPS estimate for 2026, the analysts said.
That means even capturing just half of TikTok users' time could add $1-$3 to that estimate, making for EPS upside as high as 9% as a result of a potential ban, they said.
"Meta remains the largest fundamental winner of any TikTok ban given its already leading user base, data set, and distribution," the analysts wrote, adding that distribution will likely continue to improve with better relevancy and new use cases this year, too.
Snap
Deutsche Bank analysts, on the other hand, see the highest upside for Snap, as the company works to monetize its user base more competitively.
"With time spent on the platform growing, targeting systems improving, and the advertiser base scaling, coupled with Snapchat+ growth, we believe that SNAP will be able to narrow the user monetization gap with Meta," the analysts said.
The analysts predicted that if the company can capture 30% of TikTok users' screen time, it could see 142% upside to earnings.
Even just a 10% share would make for 57% EBITDA growth, they added.
Morgan Stanley analysts warn, though, that Snap will need to improve on performance, scalability, and healthy returns on ad spending for advertisers to see any upside beyond near-term gains.
Alphabet
Alphabet is another winner, given the popularity of YouTube's short-form video features, Morgan Stanley said.
The bank estimated that for every 10% of TikTok users' time captured by YouTube, the platform would add as much as $750 million in revenue for 2% upside to YouTube's 2026 ad revenue.
That would mark just a 0.3% increase in Alphabet's total ad revenue, though.
The Deutsche Bank analysts added that while time spent on TikTok has contracted in recent months, apps including Snap, Facebook, Instagram, and YouTube have all gained share.
That's particularly true for YouTube, which has seen active users average over 75 minutes on the site per day in the last year, just below TikTok users' 79 minutes spent on the app daily.
Emerging winners
To be sure, there will likely be other emerging winners beyond the main three TikTok alternatives, with over $10 billion in US TikTok revenue up for grabs, the analysts said.
"Indeed, our industry conversations expect some 'unlocked' TikTok dollars to move toward every digital ad platform," the Morgan Stanley analysts said, pointing to Pinterest and Roblox as other possible beneficiaries.
Emerging platforms like Reddit and ad software companies AppLovin and Trade Desk could also benefit, they added.
Each has posted double- or triple-digit gains in the last year—with AppLovin skyrocketing 726%—as they have attracted more users.
"We believe these platforms have improving performance (and engagement) on their side to not only maintain the gained TikTok dollars but actually capture further ad budgets from advertisers who grow spend from TikTok's ban," the Morgan Stanley analysts said.