Pro Picks: Chiefs, Bills, Lions and Eagles will advance to the conference championships
(AP) — The road to the NFL’s final four features seven of the eight division winners.
Patrick Mahomes and the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs open the divisional round weekend against C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans on Saturday afternoon.
Rookie sensation Jayden Daniels leads the Washington Commanders against the No. 1 seed Detroit Lions in a prime-time matchup. Daniels helped the Commanders upset the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a wild-card game.
Saquon Barkley and the Philadelphia Eagles host the Los Angeles Rams, who are coming off a short week following a Monday night win, in the early game Sunday.
Then it’s Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens against Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills to cap the weekend.
Three of the home teams are favorites by at least six points, according to Bet MGM Sportsbook.
Houston (11-7) at Kansas City (15-2)
Line: Chiefs minus 8 1/2
Kansas City’s quest for a three-peat starts against the Texans, who are coming off an impressive 32-12 win over the Los Angeles Chargers. Stroud made big plays with his arm and even had a career-long 27-yard run that sparked the offense against Los Angeles. Houston’s defense baffled Justin Herbert, forcing four interceptions, including a pair by All-Pro cornerback Derek Stingley. If Stroud and the offense avoid turnovers and Joe Mixon has another 100-yard game rushing, the Texans can keep Mahomes off the field and have a chance to pull off the upset.
The Chiefs beat the Texans 27-19 in Week 16. They were home for that one, too. Houston lost wide receiver Tank Dell to a knee injury on a touchdown catch in that game. Mahomes finished the season with 11 TDs and zero picks in his last six games. After sitting out in Week 18 and a bye, Mahomes and most of the starters have to avoid being rusty in their first game action in three weeks.
The Chiefs are 8-0 with Mahomes in the divisional and wild-card rounds. They’re 6-0 against the spread in their past six playoff games. But Kansas City is 22-32-3 ATS as a favorite of at least seven points with Mahomes, including 0-5-1 this season.
CHIEFS: 27-17
Washington (13-5) at Detroit (15-2)
Line: Lions minus 9 1/2
The Commanders keep finding ways to win late with five straight victories coming down to the final play. The victory in Tampa Bay was the franchise’s first playoff win since 2006. Daniels connected often with Terry McLaurin and Dyami Brown, but Washington will need Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler to run more effectively to have a chance against Detroit. A defense that held Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers to their worst game in eight weeks has to step up against the most dynamic offense in the NFL.
The Lions could get running back David Montgomery back to join Jahmyr Gibbs in an elite backfield. That should open things up even more for Jared Goff throwing to All-Pro wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and other playmakers.
Since the NFL expanded to 14 playoff teams with only two getting a bye, No. 1 seeds are 3-5 against the spread in the divisional round.
Teams that won as an underdog in the wild-card round are 2-20 straight up and 10-12 ATS in the divisional round.
LIONS: 30-24
Los Angeles Rams (11-7) at Philadelphia (15-3)
Line: Eagles minus 6
Jalen Hurts shook off the rust after a three-week layoff and the Eagles relied on a stout defense to beat the Packers 22-10 last week.
The Rams used a dominant defensive effort to eliminate the Vikings, sacking Sam Darnold nine times in a 27-9 victory. Getting to Hurts won’t be that easy behind an offensive line that features five guys who received All-Pro votes.
Plus, the Eagles are going to run the ball often with Barkley, who set a franchise record with 255 yards rushing in a 37-20 win in Los Angeles on Nov. 24.
Rams coach Sean McVay vs. Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio should be a classic head-to-head matchup. Matthew Stafford had success throwing against Philly’s No. 1 defense in the previous meeting. He connected with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp 17 times for 177 of his 243 yards passing.
The Rams have to travel cross-country and have one less day of rest following a Monday night win. But McVay is 16-7 against the spread on short rest, going 7-1 ATS in his past eight games. With Stafford at quarterback, McVay is 8-2 ATS on short rest.
Still, playing in Philadelphia in January is different and the Eagles are 6-0 straight up at home in the divisional round, covering the spread in five of those games.
BEST BET: EAGLES: 29-17
Baltimore (13-5) at Buffalo (13-4)
Line: Ravens minus 1
Jackson vs. Allen gets all the hype but this isn’t going to decide the NFL MVP. Votes were cast before the playoffs started. Jackson, who earned All-Pro honors, led Baltimore to a 28-14 win against Pittsburgh last week while Allen and the Bills routed Denver 31-7.
The Ravens put a 35-10 beatdown on the Bills at home in Week 4. They’re road favorites, a sign of disrespect for Buffalo. The Bills haven’t been home underdogs in the playoffs since 1967 against the Chiefs.
Buffalo’s defense has a tough task trying to slow down Jackson and Derrick Henry. Greg Rousseau, Von Miller and Ed Oliver need to pressure Jackson and somehow keep him contained.
Baltimore has to do the same against an offense led by Allen and James Cook. Ravens rookie cornerback Nate Wiggins on Bills rookie receiver Keon Coleman should be a fun matchup.
The Bills have been trying to get back to the AFC title game after three straight losses in this round.
UPSET SPECIAL: BILLS: 30-27
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Last week: Straight up: 4-2. Against spread: 3-3.
Overall: Straight up: 196-82. Against spread: 147-127-4.
Best Bet: Straight up: 11-7. Against spread: 10-8.
Upset Special: Straight up: 9-9. Against spread: 9-9.
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Pro Picks is a weekly column where AP Pro Football Writer Rob Maaddi shares his picks for upcoming games. For all previous Pro Picks, head here.