AFC X-Factors for the NFL Playoffs Divisional Round

Texans, Chiefs, Ravens, and Bills’ X-factors in NFL Playoffs Divisional Round

Now that the NFL is down to the Divisional Round of the playoffs, there are just eight teams and four games left in the tournament to ultimately decide which two teams will face off in Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans on Feb. 9. As these postseason games grow in importance, so do the performances from all the superstars you know.

But there are also crucial players with lesser-known names whose exploits could ultimately decide the outcomes just as much. Every game has them – those “X-Factor” players who become the foundations of their teams’ successes despite the fact that casual fans might not even know who they are.

Here are potential “X-Factors” for each of the four AFC teams in the Divisional Round of the playoffs.

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs
Saturday, January 18 at 4:30 p.m. EST

Kansas City Chiefs: WR Marquise Brown

This offseason, the Chiefs tried to amplify a receiver corps that has been highly questionable since the Tyreek Hill trade by signing Marquise “Hollywood” Brown to a one-year, $7 million contract. In his five seasons with the Baltimore Ravens and the Arizona Cardinals, Brown was a high-variance target with explosive potential, and the Chiefs were clearly happy to take a shot with the variance in exchange for any level of explosiveness.

Sadly, a dislocated shoulder put Brown on the sideline for the first 15 weeks of the season. His first game with his new team came in Week 16 against the Houston Texans he’ll be facing again in the Divisional Round. In that first game – a 27-19 win for the defending Super Bowl champs – and Brown caught five passes on eight targets for 45 yards. Not a historic performance by any means, but Brown showed that he could solve problems in the intermediate level of the passing game that has been a bit of a bugaboo for the Chiefs of late. Brown followed that up with a four-catch, 47-yard game against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 17.

That said, there has been something about Brown’s addition that has coincided with a necessary uptick in production for Patrick Mahomes and that passing game.

It’s a small sample size because Brown has been on the field for just 44 snaps as opposed to the 1,023 in which he wasn’t, but his effect on the offense has been real. The Chiefs had a total Offensive EPA of 0.04 without Brown, and 0.21 with him. Kansas City’s Passing EPA has taken an even bigger jump with Brown – from 0.09 to 0.29.

The Chiefs could struggle against a Texans defense that played its absolute best against the Los Angeles Chargers in a 32-12 Wild Card beatdown, but if Brown chooses Saturday as the occasion for his breakout game, it would be a nice balm for an offense that has been piecing production together all season long.

Houston Texans: DL Denico Autry

In that Wild Card win over the Chargers, the Texans might have put together the best single-game defensive performance of the 2024 season so far. DVOA would seem to agree with that assessment. Of course, edge-rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter are major parts of DeMeco Ryans’ pass rush, but if there’s one guy on that line you never want to overlook, it’s veteran Denico Autry, who had a sack and four total pressures against Justin Herbert and the Chargers. The veteran has been in the league since catching on with the then-Oakland Raiders and he’s also spent time with the Indianapolis Colts, the Tennessee Titans, and now the Texans after he signed a two-year, $20 million deal with $10.5 million guaranteed this past offseason.

The 6’5, 285-pound Autry missed the first six games of the 2024 season due to a suspension for violating the NFL’s policies against performance-enhancing substances, but he hit the ground running from there, with four sacks and 21 total pressures this season in just 244 pass-rushing snaps. Going back to that Week 16 game against the Chiefs, Autry had four pressures of Patrick Mahomes, and he beat a different Kansas City offensive lineman on each of them.

Every defensive line has that “glue guy” who keeps things together regardless of his star power. Autry has been that guy wherever he’s suited up in his 11-year career, and if the Texans are to pull off this upset, Autry will need to do it again.

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills
Sunday, January 19 at 6:30 p.m. EST

Baltimore Ravens: EDGE Kyle Van Noy

When the Ravens beat the Bills 35-10 in Week 4 of the 2024 season, it was mostly about Baltimore’s offense, and that run game going wild for 271 yards and two touchdowns on 34 carries. On defense, it was a lot about veteran edge-rusher Kyle Van Noy, and his beatdown of Buffalo offensive tackles Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown. Van Noy had two sacks and two quarterback hits in that game, and it was the third straight game in which the 34-year-old had two sacks. For the season, Van Noy has 13 sacks and 53 total pressures, and the Bills should not be looking forward to seeing him again… at all.

Per Next Gen Stats, Van Noy generated two pressures and a sack on just 11 matchups against right tackle Spencer Brown, who had allowed no pressures on 85 pass-blocking snaps heading into Week 4. For the season, the sack Brown allowed to Van Noy was the only one he’s allowed all season, and he’s given up just 10 total pressures outside of what Van Noy did to him.

There may be one way the Bills can mitigate Van Noy’s edge presence, and it could also unlock all kinds of other facets of their offense.

Buffalo Bills: OL Alec Anderson

The Buffalo Bills obviously hope that this game isn’t a repeat of that 35-10 beatdown they previously suffered at the hands of the Ravens. In that game, Josh Allen was limited to 16 completions on 29 attempts for 180 yards, no touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 73.9. Per Next Gen Stats, just eight of his 34 dropbacks resulted in a successful play. It wasn’t much better in the run game – Buffalo ran the ball 23 times for 81 yards (their longest run was eight yards), and one touchdown.

And this all happened before the Ravens’ remarkable defensive turnaround in the second half of the 2024 season. It helped that Baltimore was able to play defense on offense – when they jumped out to a 21-3 lead by the end of the first half, that tended to limit what the Bills could do on offense to counter.

One of the primary constructs of Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady’s philosophy in the 2024 season – Brady’s first with the official title after he replaced Ken Dorsey in November, 2023 – is to get six offensive linemen on the field more than any other team would think to. That’s played out, as the Bills lead the NFL in 6OL personnel in the passing game (43 dropbacks; the Denver Broncos rank second with 28), and certainly in the run game (124 attempts; the Tennessee Titans rank second with 66).

Alec Anderson, the third-year undrafted free agent from UCLA, has been the sixth man on those plays, and it’s been highly effective overall. You would expect that to be the case in the run game, and the Bills have 609 rushing yards and 369 yards after contact, as well as eight rushing touchdowns and a 4.9 yards per carry average on those 124 carries. The Ravens have been dynamite when facing rushing attempts with six offensive linemen this season, allowing just 38 yards and 31 yards after contact on 29 opponent attempts. But here’s the thing – you can’t just load up against the run when the Bills go heavy on the line. Because with six offensive linemen in the passing game, Buffalo has completed 25 of 40 attempts for 347 yards, 140 yards after the catch, five touchdowns, two interceptions, a passer rating of 109.1.

Now, the Bills had just three 6OL plays against the Ravens in that first game – two James Cook runs for a total of 11 yards, and a Josh Allen incompletion. Especially if this game is closer to start you should expect more stout personnel up front on a regular basis, with Anderson leading the way.