NFL straight-up picks, Divisional Round: Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson (and a little Rams love)
If 2024 taught us anything about the 2025 NFL Playoffs, it’s that homefield advantage means something. Even if you aren’t quite at home.
The latest regular season was the most chalk-heavy year in a decade, per NFLPickwatch. More favorites won outright than in any year since 2013. That didn’t quite translate to the Wild Card Round, but five of last week’s winners were playing at home (or, in the Los Angeles Rams’ case, some approximation thereof).
As such, I’m rolling with the home team in three of my four picks. The fourth is a bit trickier. Sunday night’s showdown between the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills could be the biggest game of this postseason thanks to a battle between 2024’s presumptive MVP and runner up (and we don’t know who is who yet).
Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson can put on a fireworks show. Which defense will do enough to win?
That’s the question that may define how the 2025 NFL Playoffs unfold. Let’s break down this week’s slate and figure out some winners.
I ended 2023 as Pickwatch’s top expert in a field of hundreds. In fact, I’m now doing some side work in Pickwatch’s VIP Discord channels if you want to talk more about these games.
Joining me for 2024 is a six-person attaché ranging from FTW editors (Charles Curtis, Mary Clarke) to betting analysts (Prince Grimes) to NFL writers (Robert Zeglinski, Andrew Joseph and Meghan Hall). Here are our Wild Card picks:
| Game | Christian | Robert | Charles |
| Texans at Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs |
| Commanders at Lions | Lions | Lions | Lions |
| Rams at Eagles | Eagles | Rams | Eagles |
| Ravens at Bills | Ravens | Bills | Bills |
| Last week: | 3-3 | 4-2 | 4-2 |
| Regular Season: | 190-82 (.699) | 180-92 (.662) | 190-82 (.699) |
| Playoffs: | 3-3 (.500) | 4-2 (.667) | 4-2 (.667) |
and:
| Game | Mary | Prince | Meg | Andrew |
| Texans at Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs |
| Commanders at Lions | Lions | Lions | Lions | Lions |
| Rams at Eagles | Eagles | Eagles | Eagles | Rams |
| Ravens at Bills | Bills | Ravens | Ravens | Bills |
| Last week: | 4-2 | 3-3 | 3-3 | 4-2 |
| Regular Season: | 179-78 (.696) | 183-89 (.673) | 160-69 (.699) | 185-74 (.714) |
| Playoffs: | 4-2 (.667) | 3-3 (.500) | 4-2 (.667) | 4-2 (.667) |
Since our editing software occasionally struggles to make these picks super clear, here they are in an easier to read (but impossible to cut and paste) jpg:
Let’s break out three games to talk about.
Easiest game to pick: Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5) over the Houston Texans
Jamie Squire/Getty Images
Why I like this pick:
The interior of the Texans’ offensive line has been a fatal flaw throughout the season. Now that unit has to deal with a well-rested Chris Jones. Houston is 0-3 against fellow playoff teams on the road, which includes a 27-19 loss in Arrowhead Stadium less than a month ago. If this all feels familiar, it’s because the Texans have faced the Chiefs twice in the postseason this decade and lost both games by at least 20 points.
Why I don’t like this pick:
No one in the NFL has a better young secondary than the Texans, who are going to be a passing game nightmare for years to come. That group has to shut down Patrick Mahomes, which would be a Herculean task most years but maybe not in 2024, where he’s thrown for the fewest yards and the shortest average target distance of his career. Houston just crushed an AFC West team, though that was at home and at least a partial product of a classic Chargers-ing.
Last week: 1-0
2024 to date: 15-4 (.789)
Hardest favorite to back: Baltimore Ravens (-1) over the Buffalo Bills
Mitch Stringer-Imagn Images
Why I like this pick:
The Ravens defense has morphed into an elite unit. After starting 2024 ranked 29th in opponent dropback expected points added (EPA), that unit has been the league’s best since Week 10. Defensive coordinator Zack Orr has Kyle Hamilton thriving in over-the-top coverage, Marlon Humphrey is a beast in coverage, Roquan Smith eats up everything in the middle of the field and the pass rush is so robust it’s pushed a 33-year-old Kyle Van Noy to a career high 12.5 sacks.
That’s a lot to throw at Josh Allen. He can handle it, but can a limited supporting cast? Factor in another MVP candidate in the Ravens’ lineup and a Bills pass defense that backslid as the season wore on (opponent dropback EPA rank after Week 9? 24th) and you’ve got enough to overcome homefield advantage.
Why I don’t like this pick:
If there’s anyone who can figure out the Baltimore defense, it’s Allen — particularly in front of what’s sure to be a raucous (and moderately drunk) crowd. The Bills have been one of the stingiest teams against mobile quarterbacks, holding QBs to only 263 rushing yards this fall (the Ravens, however, clock in at 233. It turns going up against a dual-threat passer/runner each practice sharpens that skill). Buffalo may finally be on the cusp of a breakthrough after shedding veteran starters after the 2023 and somehow improving.
Last week: 0-1
2024 to date: 12-7 (.632)
Upset pick of the week: n/a
So let’s talk about the Los Angeles Rams chances a little bit.
Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images
Why I like this pick:
I don’t, technically. But the Rams have been flying since their 1-4 start. Since Week 10 they’ve only lost one game Matthew Stafford has started. In that stretch his 0.242 EPA per dropback ranks fifth among NFL quarterbacks — eight spots ahead of Jalen Hurts. The Rams young defense still has its flaws, but it’s improved throughout the year and just limited an explosive Minnesota Vikings offense to nine points and fewer than 270 total yards.
Why I don’t like this pick:
The one loss in that late-season surge with Stafford at the helm? That came at home against the Eagles and it wasn’t close; a 37-20 beating in which Los Angeles failed to convert a single third down. If we’re talking surging defenses, Philadelphia trails only the Ravens when it comes to second half efficiency thanks to the rising star play of Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean.
Last week: 0-1
2024 to date: 5-14 (.263)