China's military corruption purges are 'just the tip of the iceberg,' the Pentagon says, and could put Beijing's ambitions in danger

• Corruption has been plaguing China's military, including senior leadership.
• The issues and purges raise questions about China's military readiness and its ambitions.
• China's military has long struggled with graft, but it's growth and modernization can't be overlooked.

Corruption investigations have led to significant high-level purges in the Chinese military. A US Department of Defense official said that these purges are "just the tip of the iceberg" and that the issues affecting the military could hinder its ambitions, including Taiwan.

The Defense Department released its annual report on China's military last month, assessing that the People's Liberation Army has "experienced a new wave of corruption-related investigations and removals of senior leaders that may have disrupted its progress towards stated 2027 modernization goals."

China's leadership has directed the PLA to be fully ready to execute a potential invasion or blockade of Taiwan as a professional fighting force should Beijing opt to pursue that path.

The PLA has long faced corruption scandals, and Chinese leader Xi Jinping has spent the last decade cracking down as part of a wider campaign to root out corruption and ensure loyalty to the Communist Party. But the latest string of cases has left the Pentagon questioning China's military ambitions and their ability to achieve them in the Pacific.

At an event in mid-December with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Michael Chase said the US has assessed "the anti-corruption campaign — the corruption challenges themselves — and how they could present real obstacles to accomplishing the goals that Xi has set for the PLA for 2027."

"Just the tip of the iceberg"

Over the past year and half, China has sacked at least 15 high-ranking military officers and defense industry executives. A prominent example includes the dismissal of Defense Minister Li Shangfu. China also expelled Li and another defense minister from the ruling party over graft. The suspension of Adm. Miao Hua from his position as the Director of the Political Work Department of the Central Military Commission in November 2024, was also significant.

Leaders within the People's Liberation Army's Rocket Force have also been removed.

PLARF's leadership has faced allegations of fraud in the construction of silos for ballistic missiles, and US intelligence has reported on missiles filled with water and intercontinental ballistic missile silos equipped with improperly functioning lids that could derail a missile launch.

At CSIS last month, Assistant Secretary of Defense Ely Ratner said a key takeaway from the corruption crackdown: corruption investigations such as this are typically highly secretive. Beijing has often publicly described the current wave of dismissals as "serious violations of discipline."

"We often don't hear about them until they're done," Ratner said of the Chinese corruption investigations. "And what that should lead us to believe is that what we are seeing now — which already has been substantial, right, 15 senior PLA officials already rounded up — is just the tip of the iceberg."

Chase added that there can be a spiral effect in these kinds of situations, where an investigation may reveal further corruption in a different branch or program. That's broadly been the case in the current wave of allegations.

China's military growth and Taiwan

The PLA has long suffered from corruption issues. Since he took office, Xi's anti-corruption campaign has been seen as a renewed effort to root out problems while also ensuring the PLA is both politically loyal to Chinese Communist Party leadership and prepared for any military directives Xi gives it.

China has pursued massive military buildup and growth over the past decade or so, with its eyes set on Taiwan and challenging the US as a peer adversary, but that's also driven corruption.

"The PLA is modernizing so quickly, and they're spending significant amounts of money to build up their forces," said Brian Hart, a fellow with the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He said that widespread graft is, in many ways, also "a manifestation of the rapid pace of PLA modernization."

A concentration of the PLA purges being in equipment procurements and the defense industrial base supports the argument that the corruption could be tied to how quickly and aggressively the military is attempting to build up its forces and capabilities.

That raises questions of whether the PLA is on track to meet its mandated modernization goals — a concern that likely keeps Xi up at night, Hart said.

"Does that really undermine the PLA's ability to fight and win wars, especially when it comes to Taiwan?" he asked.

The Pentagon said in its recent report that an investigation announced in July 2023 related to weapons procurement programs dating back to 2017 pointed to "significant concerns with the PLA's modernization efforts more broadly."

What does corruption mean for China's military goals?

Despite the corruption, China's military has achieved tremendous military growth across its branches, from procuring advanced aircraft and bolstering its naval forces to doubling the number of missiles that can reach Guam.

Its military exercises in the Western Pacific, specifically around Taiwan, have grown in size and frequency, and it puts pressure on US allies. And there have been other demonstrations of might.

In September 2024, PLARF carried out an intercontinental ballistic missile test in the Pacific for the first time in 40 years, an apparent signal that despite its challenges with corruption, it maintains power and ambition.

Since the US election, China has been flexing its muscles, sending a clear message to the incoming Trump administration.

The ultimate goal, Hart explained, of Xi's anti-corruption campaign has been to ensure the PLA can modernize on the timeline he has implemented. Even with some issues along the way, China's military growth shows that effort has seen its successes.

Despite the Pentagon's observations, it remains unclear if the PLA's corruption problems will impact China's 2027 goals.