How Israel & Hamas hostage talks sit on knife edge & will finally end 15-month war – & why deal MUST be done by Jan 20

ISRAEL is on the brink of closing a ceasefire deal and putting an end to the devastating 15-month war with Hamas – sparking hopes for the remaining hostages to return home.

Hamas is said to have accepted a draft agreement for a peace deal in the Gaza Strip and the release of dozens of hostages, sources close to the talks confirmed.

Mediators from the United States and Qatar said Israel and Hamas were at the closest point yet to sealing a deal to bring them a step closer to ending 15 months of war.

An Israeli official said progress has been made, but the details are being finalised.

Hamas said in a statement that negotiations had reached their “final stage”.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the peace deal is “right on the brink” and could happen “within hours”.

He added: “I believe we will get a ceasefire. It’s right on the brink. It’s closer than ever, and word could come within hours or days.”

Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman Majed al-Ansari said that the negotiations were productive, without providing any details.

He said: “Today, we are at the closest point ever to having a deal.”

Nearly 100 people are still captive inside Gaza, but the Israeli military believes at least a third are dead.

Any deal is expected to pause the fighting and bring hopes for winding down the deadly and destructive war that has destabilised the Middle East and sparked worldwide protests.

It would also bring relief to the hard-hit Gaza Strip, where Israel’s offensive has reduced large areas to rubble.

But a senior Palestinian official present has accused President Benjamin Netanyahu of attempting to sabotage the deal, claiming his Israel is delaying the deal by adding last-minute changes.

An Israeli source in return said Hamas was making up these claims.

The peace deal is expected to work in three phases and will start with the release of 33 hostages in return for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners.

An official said the hostages released at first would be those “in very bad shape” while the rest of those held in Gaza would follow.

The list also includes the youngest Israeli hostage Kfir Bibas celebrated his first birthday being a captive inside Gaza.

If a deal is reached, the plan would need approval from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Security Cabinet and then his full Cabinet.

Both are dominated by Netanyahu’s allies and are likely to approve any proposal he presents.

The Israeli official said detailed negotiations on the second phase will begin during the first.

He said Israel would retain some assets throughout negotiations, referring to a military presence, and would not leave the Gaza Strip until all hostages were home.

The United States, Qatar and Egypt have worked for more than a year on talks to end the war in Gaza but to no avail.

But they now suggest they can agree ahead of the January 20 inauguration of Donald Trump.

Trump said “there has been a handshake”, sparking hope a peace deal between Israel and Hamas is imminent.

The deal is hoped to pave the way for the end of the conflict in the Middle East after 15 months of fighting.

THREE-PHASE AGREEMENT

The three-phase agreement laid out by the US would begin with the release of 33 hostages held by Hamas over six weeks.

This would include women, children, older adults and wounded civilians in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian women and children imprisoned by Israel.

Israel assumes most of the 33 are alive.

Among them would be five female Israeli soldiers, each to be released in exchange for 50 Palestinian prisoners, including 30 militants who are serving life sentences in Israeli prisons.

During this 42-day phase, Israeli forces would withdraw from population centres, Palestinians could start returning to what remains of their homes in northern Gaza and there would be a surge of humanitarian aid, with some 600 trucks entering each day.

In the second phase, Hamas would release the remaining living captives, mainly male soldiers, in exchange for more prisoners and the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, according to the draft agreement.

Hamas has said it will not free the remaining hostages without an end to the war and a complete Israeli withdrawal, while Netanyahu has vowed in the past to resume fighting until Hamas’s military and governing capabilities are eliminated.

Unless an alternative government for Gaza is worked out in those talks, it could leave Hamas in charge of the territory.

In a third phase, the bodies of remaining hostages would be returned in exchange for a three- to five-year reconstruction plan for Gaza under international supervision.

Blinken on Tuesday was making a last-minute case for a proposal for Gaza’s postwar reconstruction and governance that outlines how it could be run without Hamas in charge.

Meanwhile, details of the second phase still must be negotiated during the first, it has emerged.

Those details remain difficult to resolve including written guarantees that the ceasefire will continue until a deal is reached.

That means Israel could resume its military campaign after the first phase ends.

The Israeli official said detailed negotiations on the second phase will begin during the first.

He said Israel would retain some assets throughout negotiations, referring to a military presence, and would not leave the Gaza Strip until all hostages were home.

Mediators have given Hamas verbal guarantees that negotiations will continue as planned and that they will press for a deal to implement the second and third phases before the end of the first.

The deal would allow Israel throughout the first phase to remain in control of the Philadelphi corridor, the band of territory along Gaza border with Egypt.

Israel would withdraw from the Netzarim corridor, a belt across central Gaza where it had sought a mechanism for searching Palestinians for arms when they returned to the territory’s north.

TRUMP’S PRESSURE

Israel and Hamas have come under renewed pressure to halt the war before Trump’s inauguration.

Trump said on Monday a ceasefire was very close.

Asked to give an update during an interview with the Newsmax network, the President-elect said: “We are very close to getting it done. They have to get it done.”

Trump also threatened Hamas saying “there would be a lot of trouble” if the deal fell out.

He added: “If they don’t get it done, there’s going to be a lot of trouble out there – a lot of trouble like they have never seen before. They will get it done.

“I understand there’s been a handshake and they’re getting it finished and maybe by the end of the week, but it has to take place.”

FIERCE OPPOSITION

Israel’s National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir sparked an outcry when he claimed he had repeatedly foiled a hostage-ceasefire deal with Hamas over the past year.

He previously said he would bring down the government instead of signing a peace deal.

Meanwhile, thousands of Israelis rallied in Tel Aviv on Tuesday night in support of a deal they have long encouraged.

Moran Stella Yanai, a hostage released earlier, said: “This is not about politics or strategy. It’s about humanity and the shared belief that no one should be left behind in darkness.”

In Jerusalem, hundreds of hard-liners marched against a deal, some chanting, You dont make a deal with the devil, a reference to Hamas.

In the October 7 attack, Hamas-led militants killed more 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and abducted another 250.

Israel’s retaliatory offensive has killed over 46,000 Palestinians, more than half of them women and children, according to Gaza Health Ministry, which does not say how many of the dead were combatants.