UFC mailbag: Has Mackenzie Dern turned a corner? Plus, looking ahead to UFC 311

The first UFC event of 2025 took place this past weekend when UFC Vegas 101 went down in the world’s most famous APEX. Though the card was a wee bit maligned heading into the weekend, UFC Vegas 101 ended up being a pretty fun time, and a few notable things occurred, including Mackenzie Dern getting her revenge on Amanda Ribas with a third-round armbar victory.

So, let’s talk about UFC Vegas 101 one more time before turning our eye to the sensational UFC 311 card which takes place this upcoming weekend.

Mackenzie Dern

“Feels like the Mackenzie Dern Bandwagon is maybe one fight from a title shot? Who gets her there? I know her and Virna Jandiroba fought once but it was like five years ago. Seems like a solid No. 1 contender fight.”

That’s right it is, baby! All of us Dern truthers are finally having our moment! Sure, we lose A LOT before then, but that doesn’t matter! We weren’t wrong, just early!

Despite mountains of evidence calling me a moron, I’ve steadfastly believed that Mackenzie Dern could be a legitimate title threat if she could just get her act together. After all, the woman has a super power, and that makes her extremely dangerous against anyone, even if she kept getting beat. And while no one should go spiking the football just yet, I do think Saturday showed us that Dern is finally starting to improve.

My biggest criticism of Dern is not that she’s a bad wrestler — she is, but while that’s bad and annoying, it’s not the fatal flaw. My biggest issue is that Dern simply isn’t mean enough. Despite being a bad wrestler, she pretty regularly finds herself on the ground and in top position. But from there, too often Dern tries to Demian Maia her way into a gentle submission. Occasionally that’s worked, but against the best in the world it hasn’t. So instead of hunting for a submission endlessly, I want Dern to start punishing fighters with punches and elbows, and then chase the submission. And we saw some of that against Ribas!

Dern is a good athlete with an elite skill, but has a lot of fundamental flaws that probably prohibit her from ever winning a title. But if she can build on this, and simply be a little more ruthless in the cage, I believe she’ll go from being a Top 10 strawweight to a Top 5 one.

As for how she gets to a title fight, I peered into my crystal ball and the path was quite clear: Tatiana Suarez beats Zhang Weili in their upcoming fight, and the UFC books an immediate rematch. Jandiroba now needs to fight against to stay active and the UFC books the rematch between Jandiroba and Dern for the same card as Suarez-Zhang 2, just in case someone falls out.

I see these things.

Dern continued

“Does Mackenzie Dern have a chance of sneaking into a title fight if Tatiana pulls out at short notice?”

A chance? Sure. Likely? Not at all.

For the past few years now the best ability in MMA has been availability, so if I’m in Dern’s corner, I’m telling her to stay sharp, just in case. But, god forbid, Suarez is forced out of the UFC 312 title fight with Zhang (given her history, fair to worry about) then Jandiroba will be the first person the UFC calls. But if Jandiroba can’t or won’t for some reason, Dern is probably second in line right now, so there is definitely a chance, even if it’s small.

Chris Curtis

“Was Chris Curtis unjustly denied a decision?

“A decision either way to be clear.”

I think it’s pretty inarguable that yeah, referee Mark Smith screwed the pooch on this one.

In case you missed it, Roman Kopylov stopped Chris Curtis with a walk-off head kick this past Saturday, with just seconds remaining in the fight. Except when you say it like that, it seems like Curtis got slabbed up, which isn’t what happened. The head kick clearly rocked Curtis who stumbled and fell, but Mark Smith looked like he only really jumped in because Kopylov walked it off. Make no mistake, Curtis was in a bad way, but he wasn’t out, and we’ve seen plenty of fighters recover from similar circumstances. This was an instance of Kopylov playing the game and forcing the referee to make a call. Mark Smith chose poorly.

Fortunately, though Smith definitely messed up, it’s one of those errors we’ll quickly forget about because it didn’t change the overall outcome. Kopylov and Curtis were tied up on the judges’ scorecards, and it seems pretty clear that with the knockdown, Kopylov would have won the third round and a decision, had it gone there. I’m sure that’s little comfort to Curtis who now has a KO loss on his record, but it is the facts.

Islam Makhachev

“Do you think with a win at 311, Islam Makhachev is given the nod to jump to welterweight and challenge either Belal Muhammad or Shavkat Rakhmonov?”

Yes. If Islam Makhachev beats Arman Tsarukyan in the main event of UFC 311, I believe he will get a welterweight title shot next.

Assuming Makhachev wins on Saturday, he will have victories over four of the top 6 contenders in the lightweight division (Justin Gaethje and Max Holloway are the outliers, both of whom lost their last fights). Who would he face next at lightweight? In a world where champions rarely clean out their weight divisions, Makhachev has done a pretty good job at lightweight right now. Sure, the winner of Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano would be fine, or I suppose a rematch with Charles Oliveira, but are those really fights that he or fans are that interested in?

On top of that, a win on Saturday makes Makhachev the most accomplished lightweight in UFC history, with four successful title defenses. When you factor in his spot atop the pound-for-pound rankings, this is a guy who probably does deserve a chance at seizing a second title.

The question for me is not “Will he get the opportunity?” but “Will Belal lose?” Belal Muhammad and Islam train together (not all the time but enough now) and they don’t seem particularly inclined to fight each other. If Muhammad successfully defends his title against Shavkat Rakhmonov, will Makhachev say eff it and try anyway?

My gut says no, but I also think it’s a moot point. I believe Rakhmonov beats Muhammad when they fight, and though there is some history between Rakhmonov and the Nurmagomedov gym, I don’t think that would prohibit the fight. And given the relative dearth of undeniable challengers in both weight divisions, I think we’re heading to champ-champ fight before the end of the year.

UFC 311 quick hits

“1. Are you at all concerned that Umar Nurmagomedov is far from 100% healthy (the recently broken arm)?

“2. Favorite 311 song and any stories from seeing them play live?

“3. Who you got for Kevin Holland vs. Reiner de Ridder, Jiri Prochazka vs. Jamahal Hill, and which fight will you incorporate the next step of “The Climb” with?”

This weekend’s card is pretty stacked (at least the main card certainly is) so let’s run down a few of these before we close up shop.

1. Marginally? For those who don’t know, Umar allegedly had an issue with his arm that meant he couldn’t fight in December, but now that’s apparently not the case. Honestly, it’s hard to know what’s true and what’s nonsense with regard to the arm saga at this point.

It’s entirely possible that Umar did have a lingering arm issue but a title shot is a title shot and this one comes with Islam on the same card. Alternatively, it’s just as possible that his arm issue was just not 100 percent a few months ago and now it’s fine and this is also some ploy. In situations like this, I defer to what the fighter is telling us as true, because whether or not it is, Umar is fighting Saturday, and if you agree to fight, then you come as you are.

2. I have never seen 311 live, so I hope I didn’t spread that lie somewhere. I like 311 just fine, but I only own one album of theirs (From Chaos). If I’m listening to reggae rock, I’m going with Pepper or Sublime over 311 (though 311 beats out Slightly Stoopid, I think). But my favorite and their best song is Amber, but I’ll Be Here Awhile also rips.

3. I will obviously supporting my boy Reiner de Ridder AKA The Dutch Knight AKA Henny Cognac as he takes on Kevin Holland. That fight is going to be impossibly silly. Similarly, there are few people who love Jiri Prochazka more than I do, so I’ll be rooting for my large idiot violence king with the same reckless abandon he fist fights with.

As for The Climb, no idea. Check No Bets Barred when it drops later this week.

Thanks for reading and thanks to everyone who sent in tweets (Xs?)! Do you have any burning questions about things at least somewhat related to combat sports? Then you’re in luck because you can send your tweets to me, @JedKMeshew, and I will answer my favorite ones! It doesn’t matter if they’re topical or insane, just so long as they are good. Thanks again, and see y’all next week.