Latest consumer expectations reports shows biggest concern is finding a new job
A monthly survey from the New York Fed indicates that consumers are a little more worried about inflation and household income than they were the month before. But the biggest concern this time around: finding a new job.
In December, respondent confidence in getting hired fell to the lowest level it’s been since 2021. Meanwhile, people believe they are less likely to lose or quit a job.
That’s not how hiring and firing rates work. Generally when one goes up, the other goes down. But the survey shows these days, consumers think both are likely to go down.
It looks like a contradiction, but senior economist Preston Mui with Employ America said consumer expectations about hiring and firing confirm what employer data already shows: “Businesses right now are not really looking to expand their workforce.”
But that doesn’t mean the labor market is shrinking. It’s just frozen.
“Layoff rates are low, but also hiring rates are low,” he said.
The red hot post-lockdown labor market has been weakening for years now. Yet consumers in the survey said they are less worried about losing a job and they’re just less angsty in general.
Paul Shea, an economics professor at Bates College said that’s because consumers have watched inflation decline over the past couple years.
“I think they’re feeling that things are getting a little bit better economically for them, and that’s kind of leading to generally higher confidence across the board,” he said.
Shea said that could partially explain why consumers said they expect household income to fall and spending to rise.
“Consumers are basically taking on more debt in order to reconcile what seems like a bit of a paradox here. I don’t expect to be making more, but I can expect to continue consuming at a pretty high clip,” he said.
Although higher spending doesn’t always mean consumers are feeling warm and fuzzy about the economy.
“It’s not that cognition is leading them to these two things. One is the cognitive approach, and one is the emotional approach,” said Dan Ariely, a professor of psychology and behavioral economics at Duke University.
Ariely said that short-term spending and racking up debt is an emotional response. Think three takeout dinners in a week because you just can’t deal.
“I think people are a little sick and tired and they want some bright spots,” he said.
Paul Shea at Bates College said that can only last so long. With consumer debt at record high levels and potential new tariffs on the horizon, consumers may finally have to scale back spending in 2025.