Saquon Barkley is to thank for Eagles' big spread against Rams despite passing struggles
The Philadelphia Eagles have been one of the NFL’s best teams all season long, earning the No. 2 seed in the NFC with a 14-3 record and home-field advantage over any team not named the Detroit Lions. So, it was expected they’d be favorites in the divisional round of the playoffs no matter who advanced.
That it was the Los Angeles Rams to move forward only gave the Eagles a bigger edge considering they beat the Rams 37-20 behind Saquon Barkley’s franchise record 255 rushing yards in Week 12.
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Sure enough, Philadelphia is a six-point home favorite for Sunday’s game. Now, all we have to do is get the image of Jalen Hurts dropping back with nowhere to throw against the Packers out of our heads… and A.J. Brown coping by reading a book on the sideline… and Sam Darnold making LA’s defense look like the ’84 Bears. Then, can we begin to rationalize the Eagles laying a touchdown.
The short answer is styles make fights and the Eagles play a style of football the Rams are less compatible to stop. Though LA sacked Darnold nine times and held him to 6.1 yards per attempt, it was an outlier performance for a team that ranked 23rd in defensive EPA per play. The Vikings’ below-average rushing attack made them predictable and put the game on Darnold in his first career playoff start. The Rams smelled blood in the water.
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If the Eagles passing game is stymied, as it has been at times this year, they’ll simply jam the ball down the Rams’ throats with one of the two best rushing attacks in the NFL. In fact, they’ll do that anyway. Barkley should be Plan A, B and C. Which puts the onus more on LA’s offense to respond than Hurts to make plays.
That’s where it gets tough for the Rams. The Vikings were a good defense but had to blitz at a league-high rate to get there, which left them vulnerable at times. The Eagles are an even better defense (1st in yards and 2nd in points allowed) while blitzing at a bottom-five rate. They present significantly more challenges.
With the playmakers the Rams have on offense, they always have a chance when Matthew Stafford is on his A game. But it would be stunning to see them shut down Barkley. There is a ceiling to how far the Eagles can go with a passing attack that doesn’t do much attacking, but this isn’t the game they’re likely to hit it.