VISION, PLANNING, AND A NEW SUMMER SIGNING (LONG READ)
Well my friends, I hope you've dusted yourself down, repaired that hole in the drywall you punched through to look like a tough guy in front of your cat, and I pray you didn't say anything mean to the Spurs casual in the canteen yesterday.
Take direction from Matt Kandela.
First up, let's get the horrible news out of the way. Gabi Jesus has done his ACL, and he'll be out for a long time. This story is upsetting on many levels. We lost a player to a game he shouldn't have started in. This is a guy who was building his fitness so he could take a move this summer to a top club. It also can't be avoided... he was in really, really good form for the first time in a long time. Arsenal are just having one of those diabolical seasons, and all you can offer up is heartfelt sympathies and the cleanest of recoveries.
That injury does put us in a much more dire situation squad-wise. Jesus offered us options on the left, right and as a 9. Losing him takes us down to the barest of bones. The good news is Ethan will be back in the next 2-3 weeks. The bad news is we only have one right winger at this point, and he's been grossly out of favor all season. Options seem slim at the moment; you'd have to be looking at players other teams don't want, and the only place I can think of that's been trying to offload wide players is PSG, who have Barcola up for grabs, and Bayern, who have been open to offers for out-of-favor Coman and contract rebel Leroy Sane. None of those options are ideal, but we're in a position now where doing nothing could be as dangerous to our season as signing someone that could only give us two years.
People keep DMing me "Oh, why don't you just apply for the Sporting Director job because Arsenal are copying your work." Calm down people, calm down. But yes, it is true, Arsenal are likely going to do a deal with Zubimendi after I wrote this piece on him in November.
The hottest name on the #6 market is Zubimendi. Don't talk to me about other names. He's the only one who feels like a guaranteed level-raiser. At 25 years old, he possesses all the gifts of a Spaniard and goes beyond being your typical Arteta duel monster. He's far more Partey than Rice in his style. We need some sauce - and not the HP stuff in the greasy spoon. I want sauce that is served in a little bowl with a tiny spoon. That's Zubi.
Nothing is ever straightforward with transfers, but the player turned down Liverpool last year—or the deal fell through. One suspects Real Sociedad's owner didn't want to lose the entire foundation of his midfield in one summer. However, Zubimendi will likely leave next year. While rumors suggest City want a 6 this January, I have my doubts:
1) Any player would hesitate to move there until the dust settles on Pep Guardiola's situation and the outcome of their legal case.
2) Real Sociedad wouldn't stop him moving to Liverpool in the summer only to let him leave midseason when they're 8th in the league and 6 points off the top 4.
Zubimendi feels like a summer move, and there's no reason to think Arsenal wouldn't be a prime destination for him. We'll have space with Partey and Jorginho likely exiting, and we'll have the money because his release clause is low. Arsenal might also be the best option if City are out of the picture.
If you're not going to subscribe to this website after nailing that transfer, then I don't know what to say.
This story kind of doubles down on what I've been saying about proper football clubs. Arsenal plan three years in advance. They're always assessing what needs to improve, and they have their pulse on the market; they're talking to agents and players, and they're striking deals with clubs in the dark without anyone knowing.
Zubimendi starts to shape a very good summer. The biggest issue we're not talking about is how to replace Thomas Partey. Declan Rice has many qualities, but those lock-picking passes on the turn aren't where he shines. Zubimendi is literally the best signing in the world we could make to replace him this summer. Getting him in the door tells you a few things: Arsenal are a serious club to great players. He's turned down Liverpool to play at Arsenal. Bodes well for the striker signing. Worth noting that the best agents these days will use data to map their clients to the clubs that will help them thrive. Imagine look at Arsenal as a top striker and not thinking you could make them better?
The only question left now is this: Are we going to bring Isak in to make next season a Real Sociedad-lite? I'll not be putting those thoughts down. Arsenal’s top thinkers and analysts are going to have to work some of these deals out without my input.
I also wanted to take a quick moment to explain the idea of taking gambles as a football club. There's a lot of table banging whilst shouting "IT'S NOT GOOD ENOUGH" into the ether because Arsenal made some gambles that didn’t payout.
We sold players late without replacing them, putting more energy into freeing up capital than plugging the gaps of Fabio, Reiss, ESR and Eddie.
We didn't buy cover for Odegaard, hoping Ethan would be the guy.
We didn't buy cover for Saka and panicked last minute and bought Sterling.
We also took some risks with how we approached the summer.
Here's my point. All clubs gamble. In fact, all businesses gamble. The one you're working in right now has to make strategic choices on where to aim its resources because you can't staff up to cover all eventualities. Arsenal has finite resources each summer, it’s expensive to improve what we have, so calculated risks have be taken as to where we direct resource.
Arsenal's summer might look like a disaster to you right now, but there was logic.
Thomas Partey is the most injury-prone player in the squad. Signing Merino was an insurance policy to ensure that if he wasn't available, Rice could drop to 6 and Merino could cover at 8 and give us the same physicality. That thinking allowed us to wait a year to replace Thomas.
Zinchenko can't play more than 6 games a season, and we didn't have cover for Big Gabi. When the chance to sign the best young Italian centre back came up, Arsenal jumped on it. Did they also gamble on his injury record? They did. Not the sharpest signing, you have to say, but there was logic.
We had Sesko in the building last season. A 20-year-old who could score with both feet, cause chaos, and someone capable of delivering a variety of threats, with the potential to be the next Isak. He didn't want to sit behind Kai, so the move was delayed for a year. Feels like a TERRIBLE decision right now, until you look at our goalscoring numbers in the Premier League. Most calendar year goals last year. 91 last season. 88 the season before.
Let's contextualize that - the Invincibles, playing for a coach who only cared about attack, only scored 73 goals.
You don't have to be a data analyst to see that a number like that, from a very young squad, would suggest we might continue that streak of scoring.
But, we're here now. Like the guy with the failed parlay screaming blue murder about a Seamus Coleman backpost error that cost him everything!
Our plan has been Mike Tyson'd this season. Every supposition has been slapped. It's been such a miss, you almost have to laugh. But despite the ill feelings, the sadness, and the anger, we're second in the Premier League and 3rd in the Champions League, and our last two 'terrible' games have created 8 xG.
I've had worse seasons, seen worse teams, felt more hopeless.
I can hear some of you cursing our planning approach, but if you want some solace with spinkles, look at Man City.
Didn't sign cover for Rodri because they assumed he was invincible (good assumption)
Didn't sign cover for Haaland. They sold Alvarez for £86m early in the transfer window and went into the season with one striker.
Rolled the dice on an aging Kyle Walker
Assumed rumors of Pep leaving wouldn’t matter
Three of those three gambles have failed in spectacular fashion. Their season is finished. Pep is so broken, he's calling autograph hunters losers after games.
Liverpool also gambled this season. They spent next to no money in the summer, they went into the season with three players with one year left on their deals, and they don't have cover for a player who is responsible for 66% of their goals this season (with G&As).
If their season derails, you'd best believe all the people calling Liverpool genius will pivot hard and point to all the errors in the planning.
All this to say there is a fine margin between genius and "YOU TOTAL IDIOTS HOW COULD YOU NOT SEE WHAT WAS GOING TO HAPPEN."
Speak to anyone successful in any industry right now and ask them if luck played a role in their success. Some of the most outrageously successful people I know are all honest.
"You can work hard, plan, and execute to perfection... but you always need luck and timing to be a success in life."
No one tells you that in the self-help books. There's a great podcast between Peter Thiel and Rick Rubin that went out recently. Thiel talks in great depth about ideas and timing. Facebook, one of his biggest investments, landed at the right time in culture and for technology advancement. His PayPal business was timed perfectly for the eBay explosion - but his sale to it for £1b was not, because if he'd hung on, it'd go on to be worth £100b. But he had to sell for it to thrive.
Arsenal's timing has been off this season. Our luck has been out. This season could... COULD... be a write-off.
But the one ray of hope you have to absorb into your skin is that we're doing all the right things. Don't let the idiots tell you the project is going off the rails. It's not. Only the weak-kneed catastrophists will tell you that. They've never built anything. If they had, they'd see the foundations are strong.
Best young coach in the world
Best young players in the world heading into their peak years
Extremely clear problems (easier to solve)
Unreal underlying metrics
Plenty of money this summer to get to the Promised Land
Arsenal are where Liverpool were before they won the big trophies. Klopp had the attacking elements, but not the defensive monsters. He couldn't defend set pieces. People laughed. Said he didn't know how to coach a defense. Then he solved it with Alisson and VVD. The rest is history.
Arsenal has the best defense. The best out-of-possession structure. We create loads of chances. We just need two more attacking players. Solve those issues and we're title winners. Miguel Delaney drew a lovely comparison saying that Arsenal are where United were before they signed Cantona. I like it. Club just has to get it right now, not make a dumb move that depletes cash, and keep its head down and ride out the negativity that comes from the man-babies who have no strength when things go badly.
Right, that's me done for the day, see you in the comments. x