UK markets are in turmoil as bond yields spike and the pound slides — here's why

• UK markets are a mess with yields on government bonds at historic highs and the pound tanking.
• Worries about inflation, public finances, and sticky interest rates are behind the chaos.
• Here's a breakdown of what's going on and what it means for Britain.

UK markets are roiling as wary investors prepare for trouble. Here's a closer look at what's happening — and what it means for the British people and their beleaguered economy.

Gilts and pounds

Yields on UK government bonds, or "gilts," have recently surged, while the pound has sunk against the dollar and lost ground versus the euro.

The benchmark 10-year gilt yield jumped from about 4.2% at the start of December to 4.9% on Monday, its highest level since 2008. Over the same period, the 30-year gilt yield leaped from around 4.7% to almost 5.5% for the first time since 1998.

Meanwhile, the pound weakened to a 14-month low against the dollar on Monday, with £1 worth $1.21 compared to $1.34 as recently as September. Sterling also revisited its November low against the euro with £1 worth 1.19 euros.

Prices and rates

Gilt yields have climbed and the greenback has gained against the pound because of the UK's bleak economic outlook.

Official estimates show the economy failed to grow in the third quarter of 2024. In late November, Goldman Sachs economists forecast a meager 1.2% growth rate for 2025, below the Bank of England's 1.5% estimate.

Annualized inflation spiked to a multi-decade high of more than 11% in October 2022, spurring the BoE to raise its base interest rate to 5.25% by August 2023 — a huge increase from virtually zero going into 2022.

Inflation has cooled significantly from its peak but accelerated to 3.5% last November, far outpacing the BoE's target rate of 2%. The central bank has trimmed its base rate to 4.75%, but signs of stubborn inflation have cut the chances of a flurry of further cuts this year.

President-elect Donald Trump's plans to impose tariffs and cut taxes once he enters office have also stoked global inflation fears, eroding hopes for rapid rate cuts in the UK and other countries.

Steeper interest rates encourage saving over spending and investing and make borrowing more expensive, which can ease upward pressure on prices but can also temper growth.

Public purse pressure

Investors are worried the UK government is overspending. It borrowed about £113 billion in the eight months through November 2024, raising the national debt to about £2.8 trillion — more than double the level before the financial crisis of 2008.

Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor (finance minister), has signaled she may rein in spending by making greater cuts to public services — but tightening the purse strings threatens to further weaken growth.

Concerns about persistent inflation, the public finances, and stagnation have hammered market sentiment toward the UK economy. Investors now demand a higher return to hold government debt, which has pushed up gilt yields.

Flight to safety

The prospect of higher rates for longer should benefit the pound because the currency's holders can expect to earn more interest. But that effect is being outweighed by the dollar's strength, underpinned by similar concerns in the US of stubborn inflation, sticky rates, and rising Treasury yields. Investors are flocking to the greenback as a haven asset, heaping pressure on the pound.

"Bond market turbulence, fears over unsustainable debt, and a lack of investor confidence in Britain's long-term prospects are all combining to pull sterling lower," Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, said in a note.

"The combination of a robust dollar and a weakening pound is accelerating the capital flight from sterling. Investors are turning to safer currencies and assets, as the UK appears increasingly fragile in this turbulent environment."

Flashes of the past

The upswing in gilt yields and the pound's retreat against the dollar evoke the crisis sparked by then-Prime Minister Liz Truss and Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng's mini-budget in September 2022.

The tax cut plans spooked investors with the prospect of reckless government borrowing, resurgent inflation, and interest rates staying higher for longer.

With some pension funds on the brink of collapse, the BoE stepped in to shore up markets and calm the situation. The chaos dissipated but Truss resigned a few weeks later.

This time, government officials have indicated that gilt markets are functioning normally and emergency intervention isn't warranted.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on Monday that the government would continue to comply with its fiscal rules and reiterated his confidence in Reeves.

Budget pressure

The UK government funds itself partly by issuing gilts, so higher yields mean it has to pay more interest to bondholders. That raises its borrowing costs and eats into its tax revenue, leaving it with less money to spend on public services.

"The Chancellor already had limited wiggle room and the risk is that she may have to either cut spending or raise taxes," Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, said in an emailed note.

Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, made a similar point in an emailed note: "Rachel Reeves is losing her fiscal headroom and her manoeuvre margin with every basis point rise in borrowing costs, and that muddies the UK's growth outlook."

Feeling the squeeze

Higher gilt yields mean steeper interest payments for households and businesses too, tempering the economy's growth prospects further.

Moreover, a weaker pound makes imports more expensive. That could fuel inflation, curb growth, pinch businesses that rely on foreign goods, and turn the screw on households already mired in a cost-of-living crisis.

Many consumers are struggling after sharp rises in the cost of food, fuel, housing, and other essentials since the pandemic — especially when they're paying more for their mortgages, credit cards, and other debts due to rate rises.

"Inflationary pressures remain persistent and elevated, while at the same time the growth backdrop, exacerbated by the recent budget, is deteriorating and straining government finances further," Mark Dowding, BlueBay chief investment officer at RBC Global Asset Management, said in an emailed note.

"Moreover, households will face rises in energy costs, water bills and council tax in April, adding to the squeeze in consumer budgets."

Savills recently estimated that nearly 700,000 UK homeowners face higher mortgage costs when their fixed-rate deals ended this year. Many hoped the BoE would steadily cut its base rate and mortgage rates would decline.

"But now, the newly elected Labour government, which promised to rescue the country, improve finances, and boost growth, faces its own reckoning," Ozkardeskaya wrote.

"To deliver on its ambitions, it needs market support — a resource proving elusive. Without it, borrowing costs will spiral higher, forcing tougher choices: more taxes, less spending, and weaker growth. And none of that bodes well for the pound."