Trump's impending downfall: The promises he will never be able to keep

Here’s advice for congressional Democrats as Trump starts his second stint in the White House: "When the enemy is making a false movement, we must take good care not to interrupt him."

In the first 100 days of this second Trump era, those words from Napoleon Bonaparte capture the dangerous possibility for self-destruction built into a narrow GOP House majority.

The sense of impending doom for House Republicans was first evident during the presidential campaign, when candidate Trump made brash promises to solve the problems with quick and big changes if he won the White House.

Campaign rhetoric is quite a distance from actually governing in a narrowly divided Congress, even with a GOP majority in the House and Senate. So it is increasingly evident to anyone with political eyes — including people on the right — that Trump’s congressional majorities, especially the House, are likely to fail.

“Trump is making [efforts to quickly pass legislation] even more complicated by demanding to add a debt-ceiling increase that many House Republicans are loathe to vote for,” the conservative Wall Street Journal editorial page noted last week. “Freedom Caucus members on the GOP right are also demanding spending cuts in any reconciliation bill.”

The risky outcome for Republicans is that, in Trump’s first 100 days, “the GOP will have nothing to show voters as its political capital ebbs,” the Journal concluded. 

Then comes the backlash. How will Trump voters react when Trump badmouths congressional Republicans, turning them into whipping boys?

And what will Republicans in Congress do if Trump begins acting on his own? What do they say if he starts trade wars that worsen inflation?

All of this can invite derision from Democrats. But the best strategy for the opposition party is to refrain from laughter. And that may mean they bite their lips as they watch Republicans in Congress forced to deal with Elon Musk.

The multi-billionaire Trump backer is proposing that the Republicans pass legislation to “drop the budget deficit from $2 trillion to $1 trillion and free up the economy ... there will be no inflation. That, I think, would be an epic outcome.”

Musk, along with other figures including Vivek Ramaswamy, has floated ideas about government efficiency through initiatives like the proposed Department of Government Efficiency or "DOGE." However, these proposals lack statutory authority, funding or staff, making them more symbolic than substantive.

As always, the power of the purse remains firmly in Congress’s hands, where mandatory spending accounts for 70 percent of the budget.

How will the Trump base react to calls for cuts to Social Security, Medicare and the Affordable Care Act? Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is busy reassuring GOP voters that Social Security and Medicare are off the table in spending negotiations.

“The Republican Party will not cut benefits,” he pledges.

But the realities of crafting bills to cut taxes and lower the deficit without going after social safety-net programs seem more like a magic act than congressional dealmaking.

Trump’s desire for a mega-bill mirrors the early days of his first term when he and then-Speaker Paul Ryan failed to repeal and replace ObamaCare. The same term also saw promises to build a border wall funded by Mexico. That also never happened. And his promises to close loopholes like the carried interest provision also vanished into thin air, another promise unfulfilled.

The only major legislative victory of Trump’s first term was the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which slashed corporate tax rates but exploded the deficit and disproportionately benefited the wealthiest Americans.

If Trump sees a disappointing first 100 days taking shape on Capitol Hill, he will look for a fall guy and the most likely target is Speaker Johnson.

Johnson has attempted to shield himself from the fate of his failed predecessors — Paul Ryan and Kevin McCarthy — by changing House rules to require nine members of the majority to trigger a motion to vacate the chair.

Even if he remains Speaker, Johnson’s ability to maintain party unity while addressing Trump’s ambitious agenda is a high-wire act with Trump pumping blasts of fierce political winds.

Trump’s personal safety net with his voters is to avoid waiting for Congress to pass any bill and simply issue executive orders that create the illusion of big changes in government spending and policy.

But even Trump’s acolytes in the rightwing press will note that most of Trump’s first-term executive orders were reversed by President Biden. 

The potential for a sad-sack series of fumbles and pratfalls by House Republicans will be fun for the Democrats to watch.

As Indiana Representative Victoria Spartz once quipped about the GOP majority in the House: Congress is “a theatre full of actors in the circus.”

If that remains true, the next few months promise high comedy that is sure to devolve into low political tragedy.

As a political ringmaster, Trump has shown he has the skill to distract the audience and convince them to believe in magical political solutions. 

But stay tuned as the circus performers — read that as Republican members of Congress — start attacking the ringmaster.

Juan Williams is Senior Political Analyst for Fox News Channel and a prize-winning civil rights historian. He is the author of the new book “New Prize for these Eyes: the Rise of America’s Second Civil Rights Movement."