The Rap-Up: Half-way home

As the Raptors reach the mid-point of the season, the second half should solidify the team’s evolving identity, especially now that the roster is healthy.

Congratulations! You’ve made it to the halfway point of the season without losing your mind!

On Media Day, Masai Ujiri acknowledged that this would be a rebuilding season. Considering Masai’s Raptors have either been playoff/championship contenders or straddling between competing and rebuilding, the prospect of a season filled with losses (and development) was probably a tough pill to swallow.

So far, this season has been mostly a chewable tablet! (Tell me you’re a parent without telling me you’re a parent)

If there were a checklist for a successful rebuilding season, it would likely include:

• development of young players
• competitive losses (read: little to no blowouts)
• establishing a core/identity (especially one that can grow with an infusion of the right mix of talent)

The Raptors have ticked each checkbox to varying degrees.

While two of Toronto’s opponents this week — Golden State and Milwaukee — are battling increased age, decreased ability, and reaching the end of their respective eras, the Raptors are bottoming out, growing game by game, and kicking off a new era (with a little draft lottery luck).

Let’s take a look at this week’s schedule.

January 13 vs Golden State Warriors

Friends of the site — Will Lou and Alex Wong (also, former Editor of this site) — have been posting Championship throwback reaction episodes on their Hello and Welcome podcast. The 10-part series is only 3 episodes in, so they have yet to post the NBA Finals episodes. Reliving those stressful games from mid-June almost 6 years ago should be eye-opening considering the direction both franchises have taken since.

Toronto had the makings of a dynasty with two-way superstars in the starting unit and future All-Stars coming off the bench......if only Kawhi Leonard re-signed. Losing to the Raptors (and losing Klay Thompson for the next 2 seasons) should have signalled the end for the dynastic Warriors......yet they squeezed one more title out of the ageing group!

It’s safer to say now that Golden State’s hold on the Western Conference is a thing of the past. The biggest sign of the Warriors’ reliance on veterans: Andrew Wiggins is the second-youngest starter. He was born in the same year as Toronto’s oldest starter, Jakob Poeltl.

In honour of the Championship throwback series, I’ll just sprinkle in some nostalgic videos throughout this post.

Fun fact that may only interest me

On December 15th, the Warriors traded for draft capital (3 second-rounders), De’Anthony Melton (out for the season with an ACL injury), and someone named Reece Beekman to the Brooklyn Nets for Dennis Schroder.

The fun fact should be that Golden State has lost games by 10 (twice), 12, 16, 18, 30, and 51(!!) since acquiring Schroder. (That sound you hear is the Raptors fans collectively cackling)

Instead, the date of the trade is the point of interest. The Collective Bargaining Agreement makes it nearly impossible to trade a player more than once within the same season. Players must be on the new team for at least 60 days before being eligible to be traded again. However, the timeframe between the start of trade season (December 15) and the trade deadline (February 6) is only 53 days. As such, an exception was built into the CBA to allow players to be re-traded within the same season only if the first trade occurred on December 15 or 16!

Schroder was always a questionable fit with the Raptors Warriors. Thanks to a wrinkle in the CBA, Golden State can salvage this trade by making another.

Prediction

Watching the Warriors languish in the middle of the pack is a sight many NBA fans are not accustomed to seeing. Golden State has lost 3 of its last 4 games and an offense that’s just as bad (24th) as Toronto’s (25th) over the last 2 weeks. The Warriors will be without Brandin Podziemski, Gary Payton II, and Jonathan Kuminga. Draymond Green is questionable as of Sunday night.

Meanwhile, the Raptors have a clean injury report (knocks on wood). A struggling/ageing Warriors team is a sight for sore (Scotiabank Arena) eyes as Toronto covers the +4.5 spread.

January 15 vs Boston Celtics

If the NBA championship were treated like a championship belt in boxing or wrestling, would the Boston Celtics still be the champs? Follow along as we see who is the current NBA title holder (while also helping me fill this space without actually writing about the Celtics).

• October 22: Boston starts the season as the defending champions
• October 30: Boston loses to the Indiana Pacers
• November 1: Indiana loses to the New Orleans Pelicans
• November 3: New Orleans loses to the Atlanta Hawks
• November 4: Atlanta loses to the Boston Celtics
• November 6: Boston loses to the Golden State Warriors
• November 8: Golden State loses to the Cleveland Cavaliers
• November 19: Cleveland loses to the Boston Celtics
• December 1: Boston loses to the Cleveland Cavaliers
• December 8: Cleveland loses to the Miami Heat
• December 16: Miami loses to the Detroit Pistons
• December 19: Detroit loses to the Utah Jazz
• December 23: Utah loses to the Cleveland Cavaliers
• January 12: Cleveland loses to the Indiana Pacers

Fittingly, the two best teams in the East have held the hypothetical “championship belt” 3 times each. Meanwhile, two of the three teams from the West that held it were the two worst!

Fun fact that may only interest me

If you’ve ever wondered what Jaylen Brown’s X handle, @FCHWPO, means, look no further than the next sentence.

Faith, Consistency, Hard Work Pays Off.

(Darn. I was really hoping it stood for ‘Frigging Celtics Have Whiny People Outside’)

Prediction

Boston has won the last 10 meetings. They have won 7 of their last 8 visits to Scotiabank Arena, with Toronto needing overtime for its lone victory. The Raptors’ last home win in regulation over the Celtics was in the championship season. Sigh.

The Celtics haven’t quite hit the ‘cruise control’ section of their season, nor are they playing a back-to-back. So, Boston should be suiting up with a healthy roster. However, Toronto also figures to have everyone in uniform and motivated to avenge the record-setting 54-point thrashing they took on New Year’s Eve. The Celtics have also been a pedestrian 8-7 over the last month. Toronto covers the +10.5 spread.

January 17 @ Milwaukee Bucks

Raise your hand if you had the Raptors at fewer than 10 wins at the halfway point of the season!

Milwaukee currently has a 3-game win streak that includes last week’s victory at Scotiabank Arena, as well as wins over San Antonio and Orlando. The Bucks held Victor Wembanyama to only 10 points, a poor showing amidst a superstar-level season. Milwaukee was also able to defeat a Magic team that, despite a litany of injuries, has been a defensive juggernaut (and also welcomed back Paolo Banchero).

Similar to the Warriors, the Bucks field a veteran-laden starting lineup (Giannis Antetokounmpo is the second-youngest starter). With their competitive window closing and Giannis still at his peak (more on him below), expect Milwaukee to be included in many trade rumours over the next few weeks. Who knows. Maybe Gary Trent Jr. won’t be the only member of last season’s Toronto Raptors to don a Bucks jersey this year.

Fun fact that may only interest me

Giannis Antetokounmpo continues to lead the NBA in scoring with 31.7 points per game. Should he win the scoring title this season, Giannis would be the second-oldest (30), first-time scoring champion behind Jerry West (31).

Antetokounmpo is also shooting a career-worst free throw percentage (which says a lot considering his history). At 59.1%, he’s on track to becoming the second player in NBA history to average at least 30 points while also hitting less than 60% from the charity stripe. Wilt Chamberlain accomplished that feat 6 times!

Prediction

Could the Raptors have a full week of covering the spread? I usually try not to be swayed by recency bias and make these predictions based on stats. However, all of this season’s numbers were accumulated without a healthy roster and the current iteration has shown positive signs in close losses to Cleveland and Detroit.

Similar to the matchup with Boston, the Raptors will be motivated to avenge an embarrassing loss — a 24-point home loss last Monday. Toronto covers the +6.5 spread.

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Last Week’s Record: 3-1

Season Record: 16-23