Predicting the Next Guardians Free Agent Signing
If they make one. Which I doubt.
If the Guardians have one more free agent signing to make, which player is most likely to find their way to Goodyear in February?
I have no expectation that the Guardians will add any player on a guaranteed contract. I think they may be done except for non-roster invitees. However, I do not that there is still a lot of starting pitcher talent on the market. I think the Guardians could easily add a proven arm to their current mix of Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Luis Ortiz, Ben Lively, Triston McKenzie, Joey Cantillo and Slade Cecconi and not block anyone in a significant manner. Cantillo and Cecconi both have minor league options and Lively and McKenzie are both capable of playing the longman role as needed (and it may be a better fit for both). Adding a starter, especially one that can reasonably throw 150 solid innings or more would greatly raise the floor of the current rotation that is mostly built around high ceiling and unproven value. It also provides needed insurance against inevitable injuries, and allows Bieber to be a true shot in the arm and not a desperately needed savior. And, as I noted, there are a fair amount of starters left so I think it’s reasonable to think one of the following names could land in their price range. Let’s take a look:
Kyle Gibson, RHP, 37 years old - 4.42 FIP, 8/3.6 K/BB/9 in 169 innings in 2024, Projected for a 4.30 FIP, 166 innings, 50% groundball rate for his career.
Jose Quintana, LHP, 35 years old - 4.56 FIP, 7.1/3.3 K/BB/9 in 170 innings in 2024. Projected for a 4.41 FIP, 171 innings, 45% groundball rate for his career.
Kyle Hart, LHP, 32 years old - 3.28 FIP, 10.43/2.18 K/BB/9 in 157 innings in the KBO in 2024. Projected for a 4.97 FIP, 139 innings, 60% groundball rate in the KBO last season.
Andrew Heaney, LHP, 33 years old - 4.04 FIP, 9/2.3 K/BB/9 in 160 innings in 2024, Projected for a 4.38 FIP, 159 innings, 9/2.3 K/BB/9 last year.
Max Scherzer, RHP, 40 years old - 4.13 FIP, 8.3/2.1 K/BB/9 in 43 innings in 2024. Projected for a 3.97 FIP, 138 innings, 9.41/2.32 K/BB/9 in 2025.
Each of these names seem to be headed toward being available for something similar to the 1 year, $15 million deals given to Justin Verlander and Charlie Morton. Whichever of them ends up coming in under that figure will be the one of most interest to the Guardians, I am sure.
The most upside, of course, is in Scherzer, but his injury issues make that a risky play. Next best is Heaney, then Gibson or Hart, and then Quintana. My guess is that the Guardians, if they sign anyone, will bring in either Hart or Quintana. Hart because they just hit on another former KBO guy in Lively and were interested in another one in Fedde. Quintana because I know they have liked him in the past.
So, there you have it. I'm not predicting they WILL sign anyone, but if they do, I'm calling Hart or Quintana. Personally, I’d love to give Mad Max or Heaney a shot here, but I think both will go for more money than the Guardians will spend. Gibson is a reliable innings eater, but I would rather sign someone with more upside.