Grading the Patriots' Mike Vrabel head coaching hire

For the second straight offseason, the New England Patriots were dialed into their preferred head coaching hire. Now owner Robert Kraft has to hope his 2025 pick does better than his 2024 one.

Mike Vrabel, former Patriots linebacker and Tennessee Titans head coach, has been tabbed to take the reins from Bill Belichick’s original successor, Jerod Mayo. Reports of this deal broke an arduous standoff that finally gives a rudderless New England a coach after nearly six full days without one.

There’s room to criticize about the Patriots’ process. Kraft speedran through the league’s Rooney Rule requirement with a transparent lack of care, bringing in Byron Leftwich and Pep Hamilton — neither of whom have coached in the NFL since 2022 — to fulfill the team’s obligation to interview minority candidates (Detroit Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn, a legitimate minority candidate this hiring cycle, declined a meeting with the Pats).

The result, however, was a logical one. New England is weaning itself from Belichick’s coaching tree. Mayo was a minor departure as a former player who coached under the eight time Super Bowl winner. Vrabel only has the former and, importantly, brings a track record of success as an NFL head coach. He had four winning seasons in six years with the Tennessee Titans, turning Ryan Tannehill from a Miami Dolphins castoff to the league’s most efficient quarterback for a team that reached 2019’s AFC title game.

Now he gets the opportunity to do the same with Drake Maye, the rookie quarterback who served as a rare silver lining in the Patriots’ 2024 storm cloud. Maye’s dynamic scrambling and downfield vision make him one of the league’s most exciting young passers, even if playmakers are badly needed around him.

Vrabel was able to maximize a talented QB in Tennessee, though he did so with a significantly better supporting cast than he currently has in Foxborough. His most successful Titans teams leaned on Derrick Henry on the ground and a combination of A.J. Brown and Corey Davis through the air. New England, on the other hand, can currently offer a platter of Rhamondre Stevenson, Kayshon Boutte and Demario Douglas.

The new coach will also bring a defensive background to a unit that was a 2023 strength and a 2024 weakness. Vrabel served as the Houston Texans coordinator in 2017 before moving on to the Titans, but his defenses only cracked the top 10 in points allowed twice in seven seasons across the two franchises.

Vrabel was able to elevate some young players into starring roles. Kevin Byard and Jeffery Simmons were both All-Pros in Nashville. That’s a point in his favor as he inherits a roster with Christians Gonzalez and Barmore capable of making game-changing plays. But several other high potential defensive players stalled out under his watch toward the end of his tenure. Caleb Farley, Monty Rice, Elijah Molden and Roger McCreary were all Day 2 draft picks or earlier who failed to live up to expectations in Nashville. Whether this was a function of roster management versus development is a valid question, but it’s a result that bears mentioning.

That leaves more risk to this hire than you might expect. Vrabel is a undoubtedly a strong cultural fit in New England. He knows Kraft. He understands the legacy Belichick left behind. Mayo had these things as well and failed to produce meaningful improvement in his first season at the helm — a year in which he was dealt a bad hand and harshly punished for rookie mistakes.

Mayo also lacked the league-leading $120 million in salary cap space the Patriots will have this offseason to reshape the roster in his likeness. He lacked the resume Vrabel brings to New England. He couldn’t celebrate his unlikely successes because, ultimately, they only made things worse for the franchise by costing it the top pick in this spring’s NFL Draft.

Vrabel gets all those advantages, fairly or not. He gets Maye with a year of NFL experience under his belt and what’s likely to be a significantly more talented roster. His track record suggests he’s well attuned to a league that’s seeing more and more value from run-heavy gameplans that open up passing lanes for young(ish) quarterbacks — see Justin Herbert in Los Angeles or Lamar Jackson’s latest masterpiece in Baltimore. This was the most logical hire a team in dire need of an easy win could make.

For that reason, the Patriots’ hiring of Mike Vrabel rates a B+.