Who Are the Potential Replacements for 88-Year-Old Pope Francis?

Pope Francis turned 88 years old last month, yet he remains as energetic as ever in influencing the direction of the Catholic Church. This week, the Roman pontiff named the very progressive Cardinal Robert McElroy as the archbishop of the prized Archdiocese of Washington.

McElroy had in recent months attracted the concern of his fellow American bishops for his perceived willingness to cross the line on some of the Church’s core doctrinal precepts. That came to a head after McElroy penned an essay in America Magazine in which he, among other things, claimed that women’s ordination to the priesthood is still on the table and that those who are actively continuing to take part in homosexual or extramarital activity should be able to receive the Eucharist. Bishop Thomas Paprocki responded to that essay by suggesting that Cardinal McElroy’s statements had amounted to heresy.

The selection of McElroy as archbishop of Washington exemplifies the worst of Pope Francis’ tendencies. It remains unclear if Pope Francis is aware of how radical McElroy is, or if he has simply proceeded from the conclusion that the majority of bishops in America are too harsh, unwelcoming, and unloving, and allied himself with what he perceives to be the flip side of that. The pope’s inability to speak English, combined with the fact that he has the far-left wing of the Church whispering in his ear, has perhaps caused him to lose the plot on the true intentions of the progressive group McElroy has allied himself with.

Whatever the reasons for Pope Francis’ seemingly poor decision to select Cardinal McElroy to head up the Archdiocese of Washington, his decisions with a similar progressive bent, including his 2023 directive that priests can bless same-sex couples, have stirred a backlash in the Church. For many, the domineering progressivism has gone too far. The winds of centrism are gathering strength. There is now a sense that the next pope will occupy a middle ground. He will not be progressive, but he will also not be conservative.

Speculation is abounding over who that man will be, in large part because of Pope Francis’ age, but also because this year feels like a natural ending point for Pope Francis’ papacy. A year-long jubilee is taking place in 2025; the three-year Synod on Synodality concluded last October; and Pope Francis published his most spiritual encyclical last fall, Dilexit nos, which brought together his prior teachings.

Some look poorly on such prognostication, believing speculating upon the papabili to be in poor taste since the next pope has traditionally ascended upon the death of the former pontiff. But last month, Vatican watcher John Allen Jr., the editor-in-chief of Crux, assured us that such conversations are indeed “essential” given the importance of the Throne of St. Peter. “The papacy is the world’s most important ‘soft power,’ with vast potential consequences not just for Catholics but the entire world,” Allen wrote. “For any journalist or analyst not to consider how that ‘soft power’ might be deployed in the future would be irresponsible, even negligent.”

Inspired by Allen’s directive, I’ll offer a list of those who could be the next pope.

My picks will be informed by this situation: Given the extent to which Pope Francis has shaped the College of Cardinals, it is highly unlikely that the next pope will represent a major departure from his papacy. Still, it seems likely that the next pope will not be more progressive, or even as progressive, as Pope Francis, given the consternation and turmoil that the most progressive of his decisions and appointments have brought about.

The next pope must also be able to offer a definitive spiritual vision for the Church in the modern world, demonstrate bureaucratic competency, and succeed in being a positive representation of the Church in a media-saturated world. For many cardinals, it would be ideal that the next pope come from outside the West given the diminishment of the Catholic Church in Europe and its growth everywhere else.

Also, given the rise of English as the world’s lingua franca, it will be critical that the next pope speak the language. Around two billion people speak English, but even more than that have some competence in it. In contrast, only around 85 million people speak Italian, the language that has long been considered necessary for future popes.

Anders Arborelius

Cardinal Anders Arborelius is the bishop of Stockholm, Sweden, meaning that his diocese is primarily composed of immigrants and young converts, as Catholics comprise only 1.5 percent of Sweden’s population. That has allowed him to be a bishop “on the peripheries” who is also rooted in the West.

Cardinal Arborelius received a surprise last year when the French publication Le Figaro speculated that he was among the top possible successors to Pope Francis. The magazine described him as “first and foremost a man of prayer but also a noted theologian, committed to ecumenism.” It also stated that he had a “clear charisma.”

The church in Sweden has been a bright spot for the Catholic Church in Europe, and it seemingly offers a way forward on the “dying continent.” The Church is growing there — largely due to the influx of immigrants from the Middle East, but conversions among the young and religiously unaffiliated have been documented to be surprisingly high there. Arborelius himself converted to the faith when he was 20 years old.

Arborelius hails from a part of Europe where bishops have remained steadfast in upholding Church doctrine. Last year, Arborelius, along with the other Nordic bishops, published a letter defending the Church’s teaching on human sexuality. In explaining the letter, Arborelius said, “The Church can help people to see that human sexuality is something that has to do with our creation in the image of God. It is not only a corporal need or urge. Our vocation is to grow in love on all levels.”

Arborelius has been active in Rome, as he has been involved in numerous Vatican dicasteries — the departments of the Roman curia, which administers the governance of the Catholic Church — and he speaks multiple languages fluently, including English, French, and Spanish. The humble 75-year-old Arborelius is a Discalced Carmelite who has stated he wishes to return to his religious community upon his retirement.

Pierbattista Pizzaballa

Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, the 59-year-old Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, rocketed himself to the top of some papabili lists last year when he offered himself to Hamas in exchange for child hostages from Israel. “I am ready for an exchange, anything, if this can lead to freedom, to bring the children home. No problem. There is total willingness on my part,” he said.

Pizzaballa has urged daily for a ceasefire and made peace his absolute priority to the point that he called Israel’s attacks “disproportionate.” His primary emphasis is on societal issues such as assistance to the poor and interreligious dialogue. He also adopts a style of humility similar to that of Pope Francis, even though the war in Gaza has made him a major figure on the world stage. Over Christmas, he visited Gaza, where he ministered to the only Catholic parish there and delivered Pope Francis’ message that he hoped for an end to the war.

Pizzaballa, who is Italian but has ministered in the Holy Land since 2004, is a Franciscan friar.

Fridolin Ambongo Besungu

Last year, following the chaos that stemmed from the directive that priests can bless same-sex couples, Crux’s John Allen Jr. wrote, “[P]erhaps no one’s stock as a papabile, or candidate to become pope, has risen as much during the furor over Fiducia as Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu of Kinshasa in the Democratic Republic of Congo.”

Cardinal Besungu, who is 64, led the charge in Africa to oppose the implementation of Fiducia Supplicans on the continent. A statement published by the Symposium of Episcopal Conferences of Africa and Madagascar, which Besungu heads, said that the bishops in Africa “do not consider it appropriate for Africa to bless homosexual unions or same-sex couples.” Besungu even convinced Cardinal Victor Manuel Fernández, who heads up the Dicastery for the Doctrine of the Faith, as well as Pope Francis, to give their approval to the statement before he went public with it.

Despite this strong action that was in some sense a repudiation of Pope Francis’ agenda, Besungu retains strong ties with the pope and shares many of his priorities and values. Besungu has centered his belief that human actions are necessary to stop climate change, and he is involved in pursuing a more just politics in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. He sometimes emphasizes these social issues to a greater extent than spirituality.

Charles Maung Bo

Cardinal Charles Maung Bo of Myanmar exemplifies a centrism that combines the focuses of Pope Benedict XVI and Pope Francis. In a country torn by war, Bo emphasizes peace, justice, care for the poor, and interreligious dialogue — issues frequently put forward by Pope Francis. But Bo has also shown admiration for the spirituality of Pope Benedict XVI. In a homily in 2021, for instance, Bo pointed to what he said were “beautiful and heartfelt words” from the former pontiff in which Benedict XVI encouraged spiritual fasting as “an act of love in our longing for Christ.” Bo has also called for a “Christological vision for Asia.”

The 76-year-old Bo just concluded his final term as president of the Federation of the Asian Bishops’ Conferences. In his last speech, he drew particular attention to his efforts to implement Pope Francis’ synodal vision, saying: “Among our greatest achievements has been the ongoing synodal journey, where we have embraced the spirit of collaboration, dialogue, and mutual understanding.” 

Bo has been outspoken in condemning the Chinese Communist Party and denouncing its attacks on religious liberty, and in particular for its treatment of the Uyghur people. But unlike other bishops in the region, including the 92-year-old Cardinal Zen, he has not expressed reservations about the Church’s controversial agreement with the Chinese government.

A pope from Asia makes sense given the strong growth of the faith in that region. Whereas a century ago there were 14 million Catholics on the continent, there are now at least 153 million.

Pietro Parolin

If you were looking for the man whose resume would most call out that he is qualified to be the next pope, you would look to Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the cardinal secretary of state for the Holy See. After he was ordained at the age of 25, he commenced further studies at the Pontifical Gregorian University and the Pontifical Ecclesiastical Academy. Since then, he has worked in diplomacy for the Holy See and has created a long record of impact.

This includes assisting in bringing about Mexico’s recognition of the Catholic Church as well as its reestablishment of diplomatic ties with the Holy See; having a major influence on the reestablishment of diplomatic ties between the U.S. and Cuba; and being instrumental in the deal between the Vatican and China that sought to address, among other issues, the fact that the Church’s bishops were not recognized by the Chinese government. Parolin was the first cardinal made by Pope Francis, and he became secretary of state in 2013 at the age of 53.

Cardinal Parolin has remained tight with Pope Francis throughout his papacy. He has also held strongly to Catholic doctrine, even when controversial. For instance, in response to the legalization of marriage for same-sex couples in Ireland, Parolin said, “I was very saddened by this result. I don’t think we can speak only about a defeat for Christian principles, but a defeat for humanity.” In addition, in a speech before the UN last fall, he spoke out against abortion, called the practice of surrogacy “deplorable,” and denounced gender ideology.

Alongside his diplomatic work, and in spite of the fact that Parolin has never been a parish priest, he devotes great attention to spirituality. For example, at a homily at Fordham University in the fall, he said, “The stronger our union with Him, the stronger the unity among us…. [T]he church does not have its center in itself…. It serves only the Lord, and is open to all, with willingness and humility.”

For many years, Parolin was widely regarded as the leading contender to replace Pope Francis, but that has diminished given the sad outcomes of the deal with China for which he is considered responsible.

Arthur Roche

English Cardinal Arthur Roche, age 74, is prefect of the Dicastery for Divine Worship and the Discipline of the Sacraments, and he previously served as secretary for that department under Cardinal Robert Sarah. During his time as secretary, he sometimes acted as a go-between for the pope and Cardinal Sarah when the two were at odds, including when the pope gave bishops’ conferences greater authority in the translation of liturgical texts. As prefect, he has been the pope’s enforcer of Traditionis Custodes, which placed restrictions on the celebration of the older Latin form of the Mass.

Cardinal Roche published a book in 2023, The Gardens of God, with Bishop Robert Barron’s Word on Fire. In it, he reflects on “gardens as images of the spiritual life,” and offers meditations on the gardens of Eden and Gethsemane, demonstrating his theological prowess.

Roche has also strongly supported Pope Francis’ emphasis on synodality, and has been consistent in speaking out against abortion, euthanasia, and gender ideology. He would offer continuity with the pope’s emphases while also offering a more mild approach and a less progressive bent.

Lazarus You Heung-sik

Lazarus You Heung-sik of South Korea is the prefect of the Dicastery for the Clergy. Heung-sik, age 73, was previously the president of the Catholic University of Daejeon and bishop of the Diocese of Daejeon. Heung-sik has offered Asian Catholicism as a model for the West to adopt, particularly through a 2023 book interview, Come la folgore viene da Oriente, or As Lightning Comes From the East. In that book, he explains that he converted to Catholicism as a teenager and inspired his family to do the same. In explaining the conversion of his family in an interview, he said, “When others see our joy as Christians, they are contaminated.”

Heung-sik is known for his warm personality, which could encourage his fellow cardinals to see him as well-suited to represent the Church to the world. Last year, he preached that God wants every person to be happy, saying, “[W]hen we feel that we are loved and accompanied, then our existence becomes a path to happiness, to a life without end.”

He also comes from a place where Catholicism is growing: Last year, baptisms in South Korea were recorded to have increased 24 percent over 2023. The country has about 6 million Catholics, representing about 11 percent of the country’s population.

Heung-sik has matched Pope Francis by pointing attention to the issue of clericalism in his role as prefect for the Dicastery for the Clergy, and he has maintained loyal adherence to the pope’s priorities. However, Heung-sik has said that his English is “very poor.”

The Next Pope

Pope Francis could potentially stay on as pope for many more years, causing many of these candidates to be out of contention and new ones to rise up. Alternatively, the Church’s bishops could begin to trend in a new direction and focus on different issues or perspectives. But in the event that Pope Francis dies or steps down, these men will be in contention in large part because they, unlike some other candidates, such as Cardinal José Tolentino de Mendonça or Cardinal Péter Erdő, are seen as a continuation of Francis’ legacy without being overly ideological.

READ MORE from Ellie Gardey Holmes:

Biden’s Bizarre Confession Should Infuriate Democrats

Media Fawns Over Spiritual Guru Shaping New Age Thought

The post Who Are the Potential Replacements for 88-Year-Old Pope Francis? appeared first on The American Spectator | USA News and Politics.