College Football Playoff winners and losers: From the Big Ten and SEC to Notre Dame, Brian Kelly and Chip Kelly

One game remains in the College Football Playoff, but the conferences can cash out.

The revenue distribution plan for the 12-team event includes a predetermined amount for teams that reach the national championship, but there’s nothing extra for winning the title.

With Notre Dame and Ohio State victorious in the semifinals, the Big Ten emerged as the clear winner of the  conference cash sweepstakes.

The calculation is fairly simple:

Each conference receives $4 million for every playoff team and quarterfinalist and $6 million for every semifinalist and national championship game participant. (There is a separate bucket to cover expenses.)

So, here’s the tally:

— The ACC had two teams in the field (Clemson and SMU) but no quarterfinalists: $8 million.

— The Big 12 had one team in the field (Arizona State) and one quarterfinalist: $8 million.

— The SEC had three teams in the field (Georgia, Texas and Tennessee), two quarterfinalists and one semifinalist: $26 million.

— The Big Ten had four teams in the field (Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State and Indiana), three quarterfinalists, two semifinalists and one finalist: $46 million.

That’s about $2.6 million per school for the Big Ten’s 18 members, by the way.

(Although Oregon and Washington receive half shares of the conference’s media rights, they are full-share members for postseason revenue.)

Then again, not even the Big Ten schools can match Notre Dame’s earnings. The Irish are entitled to the same round-by-round cash payouts as everyone else. But as an Independent, they don’t have to share their $20 million.

Other winners and losers …

Winner: Hiring diversity. Notre Dame’s Marcus Freeman will be the first Black head coach to appear in the national championship game, which reflects the sport’s woeful hiring history and Freeman’s execution in South Bend. Hopefully, his success will make powerbrokers at other schools more comfortable diversifying their candidate pools and selections. And by the way, Freeman must slay his alma mater to reach the sport’s pinnacle: He was an Ohio State linebacker in the late-2000s.

Loser: The SEC. For the second consecutive season, the mighty SEC did not produce a national championship participant — a back-to-back exclusion unprecedented in the CFP era (2014-25). No single explanation accounts for the two-year dip. It’s a combination of NIL and the transfer portal distributing blue-chip talent across more schools, poor quarterback play, Nick Saban’s retirement, increased playoff access for others and the injury to Georgia quarterback Carson Beck. Whether the SEC’s dominance is permanently lost or temporarily misplaced, only time will tell.

Winner: Big budgets. For all the talk within the college football media machinery about the sport flattening out at the highest level, we should note that Ohio State has the largest athletic department budget in the country among public schools, Texas is second, and Penn State is ninth. The names have changed, but it’s still all about the big spenders. (As a private school, Notre Dame does not disclose its budget, but rest assured: The Irish have all the resources they need.)

Losers: The Big 12 and ACC. The lesser members of the Power Four were 0-3 in playoff games, with the ACC teams (Clemson and SMU) losing decisively and the Big 12’s lone entrant, Arizona State, taking Texas to double overtime. The winless showing does nothing to help their negotiating leverage when the commissioners discuss format changes to the CFP for the 2026 season.

Winner: ESPN. The network could not have gotten a better championship matchup had it picked the teams itself (and some conspiracy theorists undoubtedly believe that’s exactly what happened). Ohio State is the biggest ratings draw in the sport, while Notre Dame has a massive national following. This comes on top of a semifinal round that generated 17.8 million viewers for the Notre Dame-Penn State collision — a strong figure considering the game was on a normal Thursday night and not New Year’s Day. (Ratings for the Texas-Ohio State game should be made public this weekend.)

Loser: Conference championships. The semifinal matchups provided ample evidence that championship weekend is rapidly becoming obsolete: Penn State and Texas lost their title games, while Ohio State didn’t qualify and Notre Dame doesn’t have one (as an Independent). And don’t forget: The SEC championship cost Georgia its quarterback, with Carson Beck suffering a season-ending elbow injury.

Winner: Texas A&M. Because Texas lost.

Loser: James Franklin. Few coaches have been more successful but received more criticism than Penn State’s longtime boss. The Pennsylvania native regularly wins 10 or more games and finishes in the top-15. But with the semifinal loss to Notre Dame added to the ledger — the Nittany Lions were outscored 24-14 in the second half — his record against opponents with a top-five ranking is 1-15.

Winner: Chip Kelly. Ohio State’s offensive coordinator assuredly has zero regrets about his decision to step down as UCLA’s coach last winter to work for the Buckeyes. And after what we consider the worst game of his career from a play-calling standpoint (the loss to Michigan), Kelly has produced two absolute gems. He carved up Oregon’s defense in the Rose Bowl and was terrific Friday night, as well. The screen pass at the end of the first half was simply brilliant.

Loser: Brian Kelly. Three years after the winningest coach in Notre Dame history accepted the LSU job, his former team is one step from the title. Kelly’s reason for leaving South Bend: “I want to be in an environment where I have the resources to win a national championship.” Oops.

Winner: Pete Kwiatkowski. The Texas defensive coordinator created a terrific gameplan to slow down Ohio State and keep receiver Jeremiah Smith from dominating the game.

Loser: Steve Sarkisian. Generally, we consider the Longhorns’ head coach an elite playcaller, and his plan against Ohio State smartly offset a ferocious pass rush. That said, Sarkisian’s second-down call near the goal line cost the Longhorns a chance to win the game: You simply cannot run a toss sweep to Caleb Downs’ side of the field. The Buckeyes’ all-everything safety sniffed it out immediately.

Winner: Ryan Day. Two months ago, Ohio State’s head coach was under fire for the Michigan debacle. Now, he’s four quarters from the national title (and a 9.5-point favorite over Notre Dame). We can’t help but wonder if the Buckeyes would have possessed the resolve and motivation to navigate the CFP successfully if they had beaten the Wolverines. Was it actually a blessing in the most gruesome of disguises?

Loser: Oregon. The Ducks’ preparation for, and performance in the Rose Bowl looks even worse — we didn’t think that was possible — after watching how Texas attacked Ohio State. And it’s not like the Longhorns conjured a plan out of nowhere: They leaned heavily on the approach Michigan used against the Buckeyes. Why didn’t Oregon do the same?

Winner: Jack Swarbrick’s legacy. The former Notre Dame athletic director not only hired Marcus Freeman, he was on the CFP’s four-man subcommittee that designed the new format — a format that makes Independence more beneficial for the Irish. Swarbrick saw that seven at-large spots would provide Notre Dame with ample opportunity to qualify. And once in the playoff, they don’t have to share their earnings.

Loser: Us. There’s only one game left in the season, followed by seven long months until college football ramps back up for 2025.

On the schedule for Week 1: Texas at Ohio State.

*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716

*** Follow me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline