UFC Vegas 101 predictions

Mackenzie Dern and Amanda Ribas kick off the new year with an old rivalry.

It’s been over five years since Dern and Ribas first fought in Tampa. Back then, Dern was the heavily hyped prospect known for her Brazilian jiu-jitsu competition success, while Ribas was the well-regarded but lesser known underdog. Ribas was the better woman that day, earning a convincing unanimous decision over Dern, and they now run it back in Saturday’s UFC Vegas 101 main event.

Both fighters have been mainstays in the strawweight rankings—Dern is currently No. 8 at 115 pounds, while Ribas sits at No. 10—have struggled with consistency, though for different reasons.

Dern’s prodigious grappling skills have served her well for the most part, though she has developed a reputation for “never winning the big one,” as they say. She wins more than she loses, but she’s faltered against top contenders, including Amanda Lemos, Jessica Andrade, and Yan Xiaonan, all fighters that have competed for UFC gold. Dern is yet to show that she’s deserving of a similar opportunity.

As for Ribas, she may be a victim of her own versatility, as she has frequently bounced between the strawweight and flyweight (Ribas is also our No. 12 fighter at 125 pounds) divisions to. That game attitude has allowed Ribas to stay busy and book some marquee matchups, but the results haven’t always been there as she’s alternated wins and losses in her past eight fights.

Who steps up to the plate Saturday to keep themselves in the title picture?

In other notable main card action, welterweight veterans Santiago Ponzinibbio and Carlston Harris face off in the penultimate bout of the evening, Chris Curtis takes on Roman Kopylov in a fan-friendly middleweight matchup, and Christian Rodriguez looks to spoil the debut of blue-chip featherweight prospect Austin Bashi.

What: UFC Vegas 101

Where: UFC APEX in Las Vegas

When: Saturday, Jan. 11. The six-fight preliminary card begins at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by a six-fight main card at 7 p.m. ET also on ESPN+.

Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas

Another year means another chance for those of us who just can’t quit the Mackenzie Dern experience to talk through why we still believe she can be a championship contender.

But not this guy. Fool me seven times, shame on you; fool me seven or more times, shame on me.

I genuinely like Dern’s chances to avenge the Amanda Ribas loss, but much of that optimism is based on the idea that she’s still improving and while we’ve seen some evidence of that being true, there are still way too many moments during her fights where we’re left scratching our heads at her tactics. This is her 20th MMA fight. At what point do we just accept she is who she is?

We know what Ribas is. She’s an exciting striker with a strong ground game, literally willing to fight anyone at 125 and 115 pounds. The energetic Brazilian is saying all the right things about focusing on strawweight after ping-ponging between divisions the past few years and I’m inclined to believe her. A focused Ribas is a dangerous Ribas.

Having 25 minutes to work with favors Ribas, because while Dern can certainly win a round or two with her grappling, sustaining that for the duration of this main event will prove difficult. And every failed shot will result in Ribas peppering her face with punches. It won’t be enough to finish the durable Dern, but it will put Ribas up 2-0 in the series.

Pick: Ribas

Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Carlston Harris

Is there such a thing as a welterweight-y welterweight fight? Because this could be it.

Props to the booking team for the age-appropriate matchmaking here and with the Cesar Almeida-Abdul Razak Alhassan matchup, all featuring fighters 35 and up. It’s no GFL (*ba-dump-tsh*) but it’s always good to see respected veterans still getting a platform to perform without just being fed to up-and-comers.

In this case, we have over 60 combined fights between Santiago Ponzinibbio and Carlston Harris, with both men in need of a win to prolong their careers. Ponzinibbio has lost two straight and four of his past five, while Harris is coming off of a brutal knockout loss to Khaos Williams.

This should be a striking duel with Ponzinibbio leading the dance. It’s been a struggle for Ponzinibbio to add to his knockout tally in recent years, with just one KO/TKO since the end of 2018. Along the way he’s shown that he’s still a skilled striker, he just can’t tap into that extra gear he once had.

That’s still more than can be said for Harris, who has looked sluggish in his most recent outings. Harris has never been a speedster, but it looks like time has caught up with him as he’s lost any semblance of explosiveness. He’s going to spend much of this penultimate bout chasing Ponzinibbio and getting countered into oblivion.

Ponzinibbio by decision.

Pick: Ponzinibbio

Cesar Almeida vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan

Worst-case scenario with Cesar Almeida and Abdul Razak Alhassan, we get two bruisers dancing around for 15 minutes afraid to pull the trigger. Let’s be positive, though.

Alhassan’s best bet here is to bull rush Almeida and not let him turn this into a K-1 kickboxing match. Nearing 40, Alhassan might not have the burst speed that he once did, but he should still have plenty to close the distance. Whether he can avoid a thudding counter from Almeida is another question.

I think Alhassan finds the right moment to strike, decking Almeida with a power punch of his own and putting him down on the mat. Should Almeida still have some fight in him, Alhassan will follow with ground-and-pound and end this fight early.

Pick: Alhassan

Chris Curtis vs. Roman Kopylov

When Jed Meshew and I were recording No Bets Barred this week, I was stunned to hear Chris Curtis was a more than 2-to-1 underdog on most betting sites. The line has moved since, but Roman Kopylov is still considerably favored, which is absurd to me. What has “The Action Man” done to deserve this disrespect?

Curtis might not be a world beater, but he’s consistently performed well against upper-tier competition. He specializes in defusing dangerous strikers and wrestlers, so Kopylov doesn’t have a clear path to victory. Well, outside of the fact that Kopylov punches pretty damn hard, which is a solid base for MMA.

I have to imagine that’s why there’s so much confidence in Kopylov. When he’s on, he looks like a legitimate contender, and it’s possible he catches Curtis with a few good shots. The thing is, Curtis is near-impossible to put away and Kopylov hadn’t won a decision until his most recent fight. If this one goes to the cards, all signs point to a Curtis win on points.

That’s how I’ve got it, with Curtis outworking Kopylov for 15 minutes for the upset that won’t be considered an upset in my eyes.

Pick: Curtis

Christian Rodriguez vs. Austin Bashi

In case you haven’t noticed, Christian Rodriguez has a knack for taking zeros.

Here are Rodriguez’s past three wins and their records when they fought Rodriguez:

• Isaac Dulgarian (6-0)
• Cameron Saaiman (9-0)
• Raul Rosas Jr. (7-0)

So Austin Bashi bettors, beware.

Bashi has impressed in his 13-0 start, using his brawny build to out-wrestle opponents and bully them on the mat. He has all the makings of a future featherweight contender, though one could say the same about Rodriguez’s previous challenges and look how those fights turned out.

One problem with Rodriguez is that his wins and losses don’t tell the whole story. Yes, he beat Rosas and Saaiman, but he also missed weight for both of those fights. Yes, he was successful in his featherweight debut against Dulgarian, but he was then submitted inside of a round by veteran Julian Erosa. Rodriguez has the frame of a bantamweight, just not the discipline to properly cut down to that division.

All that is to say I like Bashi’s chances of avoiding the pitfalls of the other fighters that put their undefeated records on the line against Rodriguez. His aggression will have Rodriguez on the back-foot from moment one and I don’t expect Bashi to gas out like Rosas did.

Bashi wins a hard-fought decision.

Pick: Bashi

Punahele Soriano vs. Uros Medic

Uros Medic is a wild man and another stiff test for Punahele Soriano in his new life at 170 pounds.

At 185, Soriano developed a reputation as a slugger, but he had to go to his wrestling in his welterweight debut to pick up a win over Miguel Baeza. That’s a good sign for Soriano’s growth and a strategy he may want to employ against the always aggressive Medic.

To put it kindly, Medic hates judges. Has no use for them. Hasn’t seen a scorecard in his pro career and likely doesn’t plan on doing so Saturday. He’ll come out swinging and the question is whether Soriano will meet him in the middle or decide to mix the martial arts and make this a more tactical battle.

Given that this is the main card opener, I think Soriano is on the hunt for a performance bonus and we’ll see him trade hands with Medic. In that scenario, I like Medic to finish strong, even if Soriano draws first blood early.

Give me Medic by knockout.

Pick: Medic

Prelims:

Jose Johnson def. Felipe Bunes

Marco Tulio def. Ihor Potieria

Thiago Moises def. Trey Ogden

Jacobe Smith def. Preston Parsons

Nicolle Caliari def. Ernesta Kareckaite

Magomed Gadzhiyasulov vs. Bruno Lopes

Fatima Kline vs. Viktoriia Dudakova

Nurullo Aliev vs. Joe Solecki