Trade Profile: Ryan Helsley, RP

Ryan Helsley, RP

Position: RP B/T: R/R

Age: 30 (07/18/1994)

2024 Traditional Stats: 65 G, 66 1/3 IP, 2.04 ERA, 1.101 WHIP, 7-4, 49 SV, 79 K, 23 BB

2024 Advanced Stats: 206 ERA+, 29.7% K%, 8.6% BB%, 2.66 xERA, 2,41 FIP, 3.35 xFIP, 2.3 fWAR, 3.0 bWAR

Rundown

After an injury-plagued 2023 season, Ryan Helsley threw the most innings of his career in 2024. He led the majors with 49 saves – breaking Trevor Rosenthal‘s single-season franchise record, made his second All-Star Game, finished ninth in National League Cy Young voting, and won the Trevor Hoffman Reliever of the Year Award. Helsley also didn’t allow a run over his final 17 appearances of the season. Thanks in large part to Helsley, the Cardinals won 29 one-run games and were able to muster 83 wins despite a negative-47 run differential and a Pythagorean win-loss of 76-86. Helsley led the NL with 4.4 win-probability added, and St. Louis 59-6 in games in which he appeared.

Helsley’s strikeout dropped to 29.7% in 2024, his lowest mark since 2021, but his walk rate dropped from 11.6% to 8.6%, just a smidge below his 8.4% mark in 2022. His opponents’ batting average of .210 was a sharp increase from the .176 he allowed in 2023, but his hard-hit rate dropped to a career-low 35.4% while his BABiP increased to a career-high .294, suggesting he may have run into some bad luck. Helsley again excelled at keeping the ball in the yard, allowing just three homers – none of which came with men on base.

Helsley relies heavily on his slider and four-seam fastball, throwing the slider 48.4% of the time and using the seamer at a 45.4% rate. Despite missing much of 2023 due to a forearm strain, Helsley maintained the velocity on his fastball, averaging 99.6 miles per hour. However, his fastball only generated an 18.4% whiff rate, the lowest it’s been since 2021. Opponents batted .276 against the pitch and made loud contact against it, generating an average exit velocity of 92.3 MPH, a hard-hit rate of 50%, and an xSLG of .419. His slider, on the other hand, was dominant once again, posting a plus-13 run value and a 51% whiff rate, to go with a 34.8% putaway rate. Helsley also generated a 33.5% whiff rate, which is an increase from the 31.7% he posted in 2023. While his season wasn’t as dominant as his magnificent 2022 season, Helsley proved once again that he is one of the game’s elite closers.

Package

Helsley is in his final year of arbitration and will make $8.2 million in 2025 before hitting free agency. The Cardinals let Paul Goldschmidt walk to the Yankees and have been trying all offseason to deal Nolan Arenado, meaning they could be in the market for a young, controllable corner infielder. Brett Baty has appeared expendable all offseason, and St. Louis seems to be the perfect fit for him, especially if he can get everyday playing time. St. Louis may also want an arm or two to aid their aging pitching staff. Expect the Cardinals to command a return similar to what the Marlins got for Tanner Scott, or the Brewers got for Devin Williams.

Mets Recieve:

• Ryan Helsley

Cardinals Receive:

• Brett Baty
• Luisangel Acuña
• Tylor Megill

Recommendation

Besides re-signing Pete Alonso, addressing the bullpen remains the Mets’ most pressing need. Helsley has been one of the best relievers in baseball over the last three seasons, but he’s likely a rental who will cost a lot to get. It may also be tough for the team to manage having both Helsley and Edwin Díaz in the bullpen – two elite arms who have largely been used as closers. If the opportunity presented itself, it would be hard to fault David Stearns for swinging a deal for Helsley, but a better chance to make a deal may be at the trade deadline when he will likely cost less. Unless they strike out in free agency, it would be wise for the Mets to wait on swinging for the fences with Helsley.

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