The Challenges Facing the World’s Fifth Largest Economy
Credit: United Nations
By Shibu Thomas
NEW JERSEY, USA , Jan 10 2025 (IPS)
India has surged forward as the world’s fifth-largest economy and has now surpassed China to claim the title of the most populous nation. However, this rapid ascent is not without its challenges; rising unemployment and inflation loom large, threatening demographic dividend and its ambitious goal of sustaining a 7 to 8% GDP growth.
Projections indicate a staggering population of 1.7 billion by 2050, intensifying issues like employment elasticity, soaring poverty rates, urban congestion, environmental pollution, and the depletion of natural resources. These escalating challenges risk irreversible ecological damage, threaten the delicate balance of species and habitats and post serious ramifications for public health and sustainability.
Confronting sustainable development in this context, especially amidst the aspirations of a vibrant youth bulge, is an urgent and formidable task. A powerful and cost-effective solution lies in consciously reducing our human footprint. We must urgently integrate population planning into climate change initiatives and sustainable development goals to forge long-term policies that protect our planet.
This calls for incorporating population discussions into broader environmental strategies, empowering women through education and access to reproductive health services, and launching targeted initiatives in high-fertility districts by building collaborative networks among governments, NGOs, and local communities.
The demographic landscape of India is currently at a critical juncture, presenting significant challenges in managing its rapidly growing population. Over the past 50 years, India’s population has nearly tripled, raising serious concerns about the future. With 18% of the world’s population concentrated on just 2.4% of the land area, accommodating further growth is an urgent and unmistakable challenge.
This issue has sparked contrasting viewpoints within the country, with some unequivocally regarding the expanding working-age population as a demographic dividend, while others firmly perceive it as a potential crisis that demands immediate attention.
The current demographic trends in India paint a picture of urgency, demanding immediate action to address job creation. The unemployment rate is 8.5%, and 14.9% (MPI) are impoverished. There is a significant wealth disparity, with the top 10% holding more than 60% of total wealth, while the bottom 50% has experienced a decline in wealth.
The education system is under strain, with over 1.2 million children out of school in 2022-23, struggling to accommodate the expanding population. Urbanization is further burdening infrastructure and essential services. Public healthcare expenditure remains low at 2.1% of the GDP, highlighting the need for universal health coverage. The growing population places immense pressure on arable land, exacerbating land degradation and impacting the resource base.
Furthermore, the expanding population and increased affluence have led to a rapid surge in energy production and consumption, contributing to air pollution and global warming. These environmental challenges are significantly impacting public health and hindering sustainable development.
Despite advancements in agricultural productivity with the Green Revolution, a significant proportion of the population still grapples with inadequate access to proper nutrition, highlighting the urgent need to address food sustainability. The increasing population will continue to strain damaged ecosystems, reducing their resilience and elevating the risk of epidemics, soil desertification, and biodiversity loss.
India’s current demographic landscape is marked by a burgeoning working-age population 500 million, offering significant development potential in contrast to China’s diminishing population. However, India’s population growth may present challenges due to its relatively smaller land area and lower GDP than China.
While China’s one-child policy facilitated rapid economic growth, there are varying perspectives on India’s fertility rate, which has reportedly dropped below the replacement level of 2.1. Some advocate for population policies, while others question the necessity of such measures, citing historical resistance to India’s coercive population policies in the 1980s.
Despite a 7.2% growth rate in 2022-23, resulting in six million jobs, the working population increased by 10 million, leading to “jobless growth.” Although the fertility rate is declining, scientific models project that India’s population may not necessarily decrease due to “population momentum.”
Historical efforts in the 1970s and 80s aimed at promoting family planning through diverse media and public outreach initially showed promise. However, the efficacy of these initiatives has waned over time, leaving the challenge of unchecked population growth as a critical issue that remains to be effectively addressed.
The reluctance to address this matter is deeply rooted in political, religious, and cultural concerns. Rapid economic growth and advancements in science and technology have intensified human activity, making it challenging to control. Regulating human population growth is crucial for sustainable development, and historical evidence from the 1960s indicates that uncontrolled population growth leads to resource scarcity.
Failure to manage human populations may undermine afforestation and infrastructure development efforts. Additionally, unchecked unemployment, particularly among well-educated young men facing limited opportunities, has been linked to increased political violence.
India has established an ambitious objective to attain net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2070, notwithstanding projections indicating a population surge of 2 billion. A 2024 UNDP survey reveals that 77% of Indian citizens advocate for more robust governmental climate action.
The I=PAT framework emphasizes that environmental impact (I) is influenced by population size (P), level of affluence (A), and technology (T). India’s middle class currently accounts for 31% of the population and is expected to grow to 38% by 2031 and 60% by 2047, increasing per capita consumption. It is important to note that the only variable that can be directly managed is human footprints (P).
Given the complex nature of the issue and the underlying social frameworks, concentrating solely on persuading individuals to adopt less environmentally detrimental behaviors is ineffective and potentially counterproductive. It is imperative to destigmatize and integrate population growth discussions into environmental dialogues.
Government, communities, and individuals advocating proactive measures should collectively shoulder this responsibility. Our focus should pivot towards modifying systems and structures to incentivize communities to voluntarily refrain from procreation for a year, thereby driving significant behavioral shifts on a large scale.
The government should prioritize high-fertility districts in overpopulated states, particularly in northern India, and urgently improve access to contraceptives and family planning services in these areas.
The state of Kerala exemplifies that birth rates are lower where women have access to education, healthcare, and the ability to control the number of children. Better-educated women tend to have fewer children, which also signals increased gender equality. Empowering women and their active participation in decision-making can significantly reduce population growth, offering hope for a more sustainable future.
In conclusion, the interplay between India’s population growth, environmental sustainability, and public health presents a complex challenge that requires immediate and strategic action. To address this issue effectively:
1). Integrate population discussions: Establish forums and partnerships that unite policymakers, environmentalists, and community leaders to incorporate population growth into broader environmental strategies.
2). Empower women: Invest in educational programs and enhance access to reproductive health services, particularly in high fertility districts, to enable women to make informed choices about their families.
3). Implement targeted initiatives: Develop and support government initiatives focused on reducing birth rates in overpopulated areas while promoting sustainable practices at the community level.
4). Foster collaboration: Encourage partnerships among governments, NGOs, and local communities to promote conscientious living and embrace eco-friendly practices.
The time is now to act with purpose. Collective decisions made today will determine the quality of life for generations to come. By adopting these recommendations, the nation can forge a legacy that ensures not just prosperity but also the well-being of every citizen.
Dr. Shibu Thomas; M.D.S, M.S. is an Independent Global Health and International Security Analyst based in New Jersey, U.S.A; an Alumnus of the School of Diplomacy and International Relations at Seton Hall University and Former Assistant Professor at Ajman University, U.A.E.
IPS UN Bureau