The One Ring... err Stat to Rule Them All
Jerry sits cackling by a roaring fireplace with a stack of papers at his side. Every few moments he stops cackling, removes the top paper, pauses to read it and flings it into the fireplace before roaring, "Do you doubt me now?!? I AM ‘THE TRADER’ AND THE RING IS MINE!".
No one knows where Jerry is. He disappeared one week after the Mariners won it all in the World Series. He knew he would never top the last off-season.
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Forty four weeks earlier, a Mariner’s PR intern nervously hands Jerry the latest fan engagement report. For a moment, his shoulders sink. He turns away to look at the field.
"They don’t understand our plan."
The Intern responds, "They just want you to show you care… you know, be Trader Jerry again."
"Trader Jerry, I hate that name. But if it’s trades they want, then it’s trades they’ll get."
Jerry immediately picks up the phone and starts dialing.
Days go by and no one has seen him leave his office. They know he’s in there because they can hear him… trading.
On January 22nd, he emerges holding a roster card with a wild look in his eye. "I’ve done it! The Ring will be mine." Then he collapses.
As people rush to him, the intern picks up the roster card and sees:
C: Cal
1B: Vlad
2B: Marte
SS: Henderson
3B: Caminero
LF: Cruz
CF: Julio
RF: Noel
DH: Stanton
SP: Castillo, Miller, Woo, Gil, Warren
"But how?" The Intern wonders aloud.
—-
I started this all with the question what if our roster construction had a single guiding principal:
While it started as a joke, it somehow fits into our budget coming in around $150M. All trades are balanced based off of the imperfect numbers from baseball trade values.
I tried to imagine Jerry’s state of mind when carving up the team he’d carefully constructed for years and decided to write a narrative to go with this ridiculousness. In the end I think this would be a very fun team to watch despite the meddling rotation.
Summary table of the WAR numbers (per Fangraphs) for all the stat nerds:
Trade for Vlad
Toronto needs some outfield talent. Jonny Farmelo is talented and value matches almost perfectly with Vlads. Now they can go sign Pete Alonso.
Trade for Ketel Marte
Maybe the DBacks are ready to roll Jordan Lawler out at 2B/SS and want to trade Marte? Dunno, but this is fantasy world and they could use a good starting pitcher and left fielder.
Trade for Junior Caminero:
I know. The Rays aren’t going to trade him. Ignore that thought. They have Morell as a bounceback 3B candidate and Ben Williamson is a more interesting 3B prospect than he gets credit for. But really this is about Colt Emerson (who some scouts claim is the top prospect in baseball) and Harry Ford. Tai Peete just sweetens the deal.
Trade for Gunnar Henderson
The Orioles don’t want to trade Henderson, but they need a great pitcher and have Holliday available to fill in at SS. Adding Young and Arroyo to keep the SS prospect spice flowing.
Trade for Oneil Cruz
I cheated on this one… he’s technically listed as a center-fielder and swings faster than Julio. But his fielding was so bad in CF that I moved him to left. The Pirates have needed a shortstop ever since they gave up on Cruz’s defense there. They also need a right fielder that could cover center without costing too much, which is why Robles looks like a fit for them.
Trade for Jhonkensy Noel
I was certain Judge would be in this spot, but turns out the Guardians called up a guy last year and he’s taken the swing speed crown for right field. Not really sure what the Guardians would want since Noel's like a right handed worse fielding version for Raley but they seem to like first base prospects and pitchers they can develop… so that’s what I threw in.
Trade for Giancarlo Stanton
Mariners also receive:
This one’s weird since Stanton’s value is so negative. I opted to dump Haniger and have the Yankees throw in Luis Gil and Will Warren to backfill our rotation. Maybe there’s a fancier version of this trade that also sends Castillo to offset Stanton’s contract, but thats beyond my single parameter trade guideline.
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I hope you enjoyed enjoyed reading about what a swing speed obsessed madman could trade for. This is the end of the madness.